由于掉期利率下降，Toncoin (TON) 面临市场不确定性

自平安夜上涨以来，Toncoin [TON]一直横盘整理。因此，自触及 6 美元高点以来，TON 已回落至 5.6 美元。

Toncoin (TON) has traded sideways since the Christmas Eve upswing. After hitting a high of $6, TON has retraced to $5.6, leaving analysts wondering about the lack of upward momentum.

自平安夜上涨以来，Toncoin (TON) 一直横盘整理。在触及 6 美元高点后，TON 已回落至 5.6 美元，这让分析师对缺乏上涨动力感到怀疑。

CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson has observed a continued decline in interest for Swaps, which is impacting the altcoin.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Joao Wedson 观察到人们对掉期合约的兴趣持续下降，这正在影响山寨币。

A sharp decline in the number of swaps on the Toncoin network decentralized exchanges has been observed by Wedson. According to him, the average daily users on STON.fi have dropped to 13,300 and on DeDust to 5250.

Wedson 观察到，Toncoin 网络去中心化交易所的掉期数量急剧下降。据他介绍，STON.fi 的日均用户已降至 13,300 人，DeDust 的日均用户降至 5250 人。

This is a massive drop from September levels, when the altcoin saw almost 200,000 daily users on the two platforms.

这与 9 月份的水平相比大幅下降，当时山寨币在两个平台上的每日用户数量接近 20 万。

The decline in users is being impacted by three main factors. First, there is a reduction in open positions, with many traders liquidating or reducing their exposure on decentralized exchanges.

用户下降受到三个主要因素的影响。首先，未平仓头寸减少，许多交易者清算或减少在去中心化交易所的风险敞口。

Secondly, the TON community has experienced uncertainty over the legal issues since the arrest of its founder months ago, impacting participation and trust in network-based platforms.

其次，自几个月前创始人被捕以来，TON 社区在法律问题上经历了不确定性，影响了对网络平台的参与和信任。

Finally, the overall crypto market has seen unfavorable conditions since the last FED rate cuts, with lower trading volumes and reduced risk appetite.

最后，自美联储上次降息以来，整个加密市场出现了不利的情况，交易量下降，风险偏好下降。

As TON sees a decline in swaps, investors are shifting in interest from decentralized trading towards staking. While this decline may seem challenging, it can also provide a strategic opportunity. Historically, periods of low interest and market inactivity have served as attractive entry points for investors.

随着 TON 看到掉期交易量下降，投资者的兴趣正在从去中心化交易转向质押。虽然这种下降似乎具有挑战性，但它也可以提供战略机遇。从历史上看，低利率和市场不活跃时期一直是对投资者有吸引力的切入点。

Notably, a sharp decline in interest for swaps reflects declining buying pressure as investors express uncertainty about the market direction, reducing their risk exposure.

值得注意的是，掉期利息的急剧下降反映出购买压力的下降，因为投资者对市场方向表示不确定，从而减少了风险敞口。

As such, Toncoin is seeing a steep drop in demand amidst market uncertainty as investors take cautious positions.

因此，由于投资者采取谨慎立场，在市场不确定性的情况下，Toncoin 的需求急剧下降。

We can see this decline in demand through TON’s stock-to-flow ratio. According to Santiment, the altcoin’s SFR has experienced a drop over the past three days to zero.

我们可以通过 TON 的库存流量比看到需求的下降。据 Santiment 称，山寨币的 SFR 在过去三天内已跌至零。

When SFR drops like this, it signifies oversupply and reduced scarcity. With increased supply, the altcoin risks selling pressure causing downward pressure on prices.

当SFR像这样下降时，就意味着供应过剩和稀缺性减少。随着供应增加，山寨币面临抛售压力，导致价格下行压力。

This oversupply is further evidenced by a spike in TON’s supply on exchanges. As such, the exchange flow balance has surged to 3459. This shows that investors are sending more assets to exchanges.

交易所 TON 供应量的激增进一步证明了这种供应过剩。因此，交易流量余额已飙升至3459。这表明投资者正在向交易所发送更多资产。

Simply put, TON is currently reducing demand, and investors have turned overly cautious. This shows that investors lack confidence in the market, with most closing their positions while reducing their risks.

简而言之，TON 目前正在减少需求，投资者变得过于谨慎。这表明投资者对市场缺乏信心，大多数人在降低风险的同时平仓。

Therefore, if these conditions persist, TON could drop to $5.2. However, if investors view the decline as a buying opportunity, the altcoin could break out of the consolidation range to $6.1.

因此，如果这些情况持续下去，TON 可能会跌至 5.2 美元。然而，如果投资者将下跌视为买入机会，山寨币可能会突破盘整区间至 6.1 美元。