由於掉期利息下降，Toncoin (TON) 面臨市場不確定性

自平安夜上漲以來，Toncoin [TON]一直橫盤整理。因此，自觸及 6 美元高點以來，TON 已回落至 5.6 美元。

Toncoin (TON) has traded sideways since the Christmas Eve upswing. After hitting a high of $6, TON has retraced to $5.6, leaving analysts wondering about the lack of upward momentum.

自平安夜上漲以來，Toncoin (TON) 一直橫盤整理。在觸及 6 美元高點後，TON 已回落至 5.6 美元，這讓分析師對缺乏上漲動力感到懷疑。

CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson has observed a continued decline in interest for Swaps, which is impacting the altcoin.

CryptoQuant 分析師 Joao Wedson 觀察到人們對掉期合約的興趣持續下降，這正在影響山寨幣。

A sharp decline in the number of swaps on the Toncoin network decentralized exchanges has been observed by Wedson. According to him, the average daily users on STON.fi have dropped to 13,300 and on DeDust to 5250.

Wedson 觀察到，Toncoin 網路去中心化交易所的掉期數量急劇下降。據他介紹，STON.fi 的日均用戶已降至 13,300 人，DeDust 的日均用戶降至 5250 人。

This is a massive drop from September levels, when the altcoin saw almost 200,000 daily users on the two platforms.

這與 9 月的水平相比大幅下降，當時山寨幣在兩個平台上的每日用戶數量接近 20 萬。

The decline in users is being impacted by three main factors. First, there is a reduction in open positions, with many traders liquidating or reducing their exposure on decentralized exchanges.

使用者下降受到三個主要因素的影響。首先，未平倉部位減少，許多交易者清算或減少在去中心化交易所的風險敞口。

Secondly, the TON community has experienced uncertainty over the legal issues since the arrest of its founder months ago, impacting participation and trust in network-based platforms.

其次，自從幾個月前創辦人被捕以來，TON 社群在法律問題上經歷了不確定性，影響了對網路平台的參與和信任。

Finally, the overall crypto market has seen unfavorable conditions since the last FED rate cuts, with lower trading volumes and reduced risk appetite.

最後，自上次聯準會降息以來，整個加密市場出現了不利的情況，交易量下降，風險偏好下降。

As TON sees a decline in swaps, investors are shifting in interest from decentralized trading towards staking. While this decline may seem challenging, it can also provide a strategic opportunity. Historically, periods of low interest and market inactivity have served as attractive entry points for investors.

隨著 TON 看到掉期交易量下降，投資者的興趣正在從去中心化交易轉向質押。雖然這種下降似乎具有挑戰性，但它也可以提供策略機會。從歷史上看，低利率和市場不活躍時期一直是對投資者有吸引力的切入點。

Notably, a sharp decline in interest for swaps reflects declining buying pressure as investors express uncertainty about the market direction, reducing their risk exposure.

值得注意的是，掉期利息的急劇下降反映出購買壓力的下降，因為投資者對市場方向表示不確定，從而減少了風險敞口。

As such, Toncoin is seeing a steep drop in demand amidst market uncertainty as investors take cautious positions.

因此，由於投資者採取謹慎立場，在市場不確定性的情況下，Toncoin 的需求急劇下降。

We can see this decline in demand through TON’s stock-to-flow ratio. According to Santiment, the altcoin’s SFR has experienced a drop over the past three days to zero.

我們可以透過 TON 的庫存流量比看到需求的下降。據 Santiment 稱，山寨幣的 SFR 在過去三天內已跌至零。

When SFR drops like this, it signifies oversupply and reduced scarcity. With increased supply, the altcoin risks selling pressure causing downward pressure on prices.

當SFR像這樣下降時，就意味著供應過剩和稀缺性減少。隨著供應增加，山寨幣面臨拋售壓力，導致價格下行壓力。

This oversupply is further evidenced by a spike in TON’s supply on exchanges. As such, the exchange flow balance has surged to 3459. This shows that investors are sending more assets to exchanges.

交易所 TON 供應量的激增進一步證明了這種供應過剩。因此，交易流量餘額已飆升至3459。

Simply put, TON is currently reducing demand, and investors have turned overly cautious. This shows that investors lack confidence in the market, with most closing their positions while reducing their risks.

簡而言之，TON 目前正在減少需求，投資者變得過於謹慎。這顯示投資者對市場缺乏信心，大多數人在降低風險的同時平倉。

Therefore, if these conditions persist, TON could drop to $5.2. However, if investors view the decline as a buying opportunity, the altcoin could break out of the consolidation range to $6.1.

因此，如果這些情況持續下去，TON 可能會跌至 5.2 美元。然而，如果投資者將下跌視為買入機會，山寨幣可能會突破盤整區間至 6.1 美元。