目前96％的吨币（吨）持有人面临损失

加密货币市场最近一直在经历重大的波动性，一枚硬币感受到了这种低迷的首屈一指的是Toncoin（吨）。

Cryptocurrency traders have largely grown accustomed to instances of extreme volatility, especially in the wake of the recent market downturn. However, even by these standards, the figures for Toncoin (TON) are staggering.

加密货币交易者在很大程度上已经习惯了极端波动的情况，尤其是在最近的市场低迷之后。但是，即使按照这些标准，吨币（吨）的数字也令人震惊。

According to data from blockchain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, an overwhelming 96% of Toncoin investors are currently in the red. This grim statistic is a testament to the severity of the cryptocurrency’s ongoing price decline.

根据区块链分析平台Intotheblock的数据，目前有96％的吨币投资者处于红色状态。这种严峻的统计数据证明了加密货币持续价格下降的严重性。

As the cryptocurrency remains in the lower reaches of its recent price ranges, investors are growing increasingly interested in the possibility of a recovery and what might come next for the coin.

由于加密货币仍然处于其最近的价格范围的较低范围内，投资者越来越对恢复的可能性以及硬币下一步可能发生的事情越来越感兴趣。

MVRV Shows Magnitude of Toncoin Losses

MVRV显示吨币损失的幅度

The small sliver of investors who are currently in the green on their Toncoin investments will largely be those who bought the cryptocurrency at the very bottom of its recent price cycle, in the lower $2.00 ranges. From the beginning of 2024, however, the cryptocurrency has largely been in negative territory, slipping as low as $1.96 in mid-February.

目前正在绿色投资绿色投资的投资者很小的一小部分将在很大程度上是那些在最近的价格周期最底部购买加密货币的人，价格较低2.00美元。然而，从2024年初开始，加密货币在很大程度上处于负面的领域，在2月中旬下滑至1.96美元。

This persistent downturn in price is also evident in the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which tracks the difference between the price at which assets were purchased and their current market value. At the time of writing, the MVRV 30-day reading is at -10.15%, showcasing that most investors are sitting on unrealized losses.

MVRV（市场价值与已实现的价值）比率也很明显，这一价格也很明显，该比率跟踪了购买资产的价格与当前市场价值之间的差额。在撰写本文时，MVRV 30天的阅读率为-10.15％，表明大多数投资者都遇到未实现的损失。

A MVRV reading of 0% signifies that investors are collectively breaking even, while a positive reading indicates an overall profit for investors. Conversely, a negative MVRV reading, such as the one that has persisted for Toncoin, indicates that most investors are still in the red.

0％的MVRV阅读表明投资者正在共同打破，而积极的阅读则表明投资者的总体利润。相反，负面的MVRV阅读，例如持续使用Toncoin的读数，表明大多数投资者仍处于红色状态。

Declining On-Chain Activity Sounds Alarm Bells

链上活动的下降听起来很警钟

In addition to the price drop, there has also been a sharp decline in the number of active daily addresses interacting with Toncoin. As of March 8, this figure stands at 126,454. This figure has been steadily decreasing since the beginning of 2024, showing a lack of new investors engaging with the cryptocurrency.

除了价格下跌外，与吨币相互作用的活动日常地址数量也大幅下降。截至3月8日，这个数字为126,454。自2024年初以来，这个数字一直在稳步下降，表明缺乏与加密货币相关的新投资者。

The decline in daily active addresses corresponds with the cryptocurrency’s price slump, showcasing how investor interest appears to be waning. This lack of activity suggests that there is minimal new investment in the cryptocurrency.

每日活动地址的下降与加密货币的价格低迷相对应，展示了投资者的兴趣如何减弱。这种缺乏活动表明，加密货币的新投资最少。

When looking at the number of new addresses being created, there has been minimal growth, especially when compared to other prominent cryptocurrencies. This trend further suggests that new investment is weak, and confidence in Toncoin may be diminishing.

在查看创建的新地址数量时，增长的增长很小，尤其是与其他突出的加密货币相比。这种趋势进一步表明，新的投资薄弱，对吨币的信心可能正在减少。

When combined with the dismal MVRV readings, it paints a picture of a market that is far from bullish at this stage.

当与惨淡的MVRV读数结合使用时，它描绘了一个市场远非看涨的市场图片。

Toncoin Price Struggles to Break Key Levels

吨币价格难以打破关键水平

Technical analysis shows that Toncoin’s price has been stuck in a prolonged downtrend, struggling to break above key resistance levels and failing to regain its previous highs.

技术分析表明，Toncoin的价格一直处于长期的下降趋势中，努力打破了关键阻力水平，并且未能恢复以前的高位。

As the cryptocurrency attempts to recover, it has faced consistent rejection at the $3.24 resistance level, which aligns closely with the 50-day moving average. If Toncoin fails to break above this level, it may continue to experience downward pressure, with the next key support level appearing to be around $2.50.

当加密货币试图恢复时，它在3.24美元的电阻水平上面临一致的拒绝，这与50天的移动平均线密切相符。如果Toncoin未能超过此水平，它可能会继续承受向下压力，下一个关键支持水平的价格约为2.50美元。

Lack of upward momentum could be a concern for investors, who will be hoping to see some stability return to the cryptocurrency’s price.

对于投资者来说，缺乏向上的动力可能会成为一个关注，他们希望看到加密货币的价格有些稳定。

If the cryptocurrency continues to struggle below key resistance levels, there is a risk that the coin could slip even further, potentially causing more pain for those already holding losses.

如果加密货币继续在关键阻力水平以下挣扎，那么硬币可能会进一步滑倒，这可能会给那些已经遭受损失的人带来更多的痛苦。

Could There Be A Short-Term Bounce?

可以短期反弹吗？

Despite the bearish outlook, there are some signs of hope for Toncoin in the short term. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are showing that the cryptocurrency may be nearing oversold conditions.

尽管看跌了前景，但短期内仍然有一些希望托币的迹象。诸如相对强度指数（RSI）之类的技术指标表明，加密货币可能正在接近超售条件。

The RSI, which measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions, currently sits at 42.06. This reading suggests that the asset could be approaching a price level where it may become undervalued in the short term.

RSI衡量了最近价格变化以评估过多买卖条件的幅度，目前为42.06。该读物表明，资产可以在短期内被低估的价格水平。

If buyers step in and the market experiences a small recovery, it could lead to a short-term rebound for Toncoin, potentially pushing its price back towards the $3.00 to $3.25 range. However, unless there is a significant change in market sentiment, this rebound could be temporary, and Toncoin may face further declines after such a bounce.

如果买家介入并且市场经历了少量的恢复，则可能会导致吨币的短期反弹，从而将其价格恢复到3.00美元至3.25美元之间。但是，除非市场情绪发生重大变化，否则这种反弹可能是暂时的，在这种反弹之后，吨币可能会进一步下降。

What’s Next For Toncoin

吨币的下一步是什么

The cryptocurrency markets have been volatile in recent times, and the future of Toncoin largely depends on how the broader cryptocurrency market evolves in the coming months.

加密货币市场最近一直在波动，吨币的未来在很大程度上取决于接下来几个月的更广泛的加密货币市场如何发展。

For a recovery in Toncoin to take place, a shift in market sentiment will be necessary. The current lack of bullish momentum, combined with low MVRV readings, suggests that accumulation may still be in progress, and investors are hesitant to make large bets.

为了进行吨币的恢复，将有必要改变市场情绪。目前缺乏看涨的动力，再加上MVRV低的读数，这表明积累可能仍在进行中，投资者犹豫不决。

For a sustainable recovery to take place, Toncoin would need to reclaim key support levels and witness an uptick in on-chain activity

为了实现可持续的恢复，吨币需要收回关键支持水平并见证链上活动的上升