比特币交易价格低于 70,000 美元，是时候买入了吗？

比特币几个月来一直保持稳定，尽管市场发生变化，但仍显示出强势。 2024年初上涨48%后，3月份再创新高但尚未推出

Bitcoin has remained largely stagnant for months, exhibiting resilience amidst shifting market dynamics. Following a 48% gain in early 2024, the apex crypto hit a new high in March but has yet to fully enter the bull market that many anticipated.

几个月来，比特币基本保持停滞状态，在市场动态变化的情况下表现出弹性。继 2024 年初上涨 48% 后，顶级加密货币在 3 月份创下新高，但尚未完全进入许多人预期的牛市。

According to Brave New Coin’s Bitcoin Liquid Index, BTC is still trading below the $70,000 mark, having hit $69,400 this week, begging the question: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?

根据 Brave New Coin 的比特币流动性指数，比特币的交易价格仍低于 70,000 美元大关，本周已触及 69,400 美元，这引出了一个问题：现在是购买比特币的好时机吗？

One reason for optimism is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower interest rates for the first time in over four years. Lower interest rates tend to push investors toward riskier assets, which could boost the appeal of Bitcoin as crypto investors seek higher returns.

乐观的一个原因是美联储最近决定四年多来首次降息。较低的利率往往会促使投资者转向风险较高的资产，这可能会增强比特币的吸引力，因为加密货币投资者寻求更高的回报。

Another factor is the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have gained massive popularity. These funds make it easier to invest in Bitcoin by eliminating the need to directly buy and store it, which could attract more investors and drive up demand.

另一个因素是现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出，该基金受到了广泛欢迎。这些基金无需直接购买和存储比特币，从而使投资比特币变得更加容易，这可以吸引更多投资者并推高需求。

Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $20 billion since their launch earlier this year. It took gold ETFs 5 years to reach this figure. That makes the Bitcoin ETFs the most successful launch of any ETF in history.

自今年早些时候推出以来，现货比特币 ETF 的累计净流入已超过 200 亿美元。黄金ETF花了5年时间才达到这个数字。这使得比特币 ETF 成为历史上推出的最成功的 ETF。

"Bitcoin ETFs have crossed $20b in total net flows (the most imp number, most difficult metric to grow in ETF world) for the first time after a huge week of $1.5b,” Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg, wrote on X.

彭博社高级 ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 写道：“比特币 ETF 的总净流量在经历了 1.5 亿美元的一周后首次突破了 20 亿美元（ETF 世界中最重要的数量，最难增长的指标）。” X.

“For context, it took gold ETFs about 5 years to reach the same number. Total assets now $65b, also a high water mark."

“就背景而言，黄金 ETF 花了大约 5 年时间才达到同样的数字。目前总资产为 65b 美元，也是一个高水位。”

Source: X

来源：X

Irrespective of the upcoming White House election results, the regulatory outlook for Bitcoin appears to be improving. A favorable regulatory environment could bolster Bitcoin’s legitimacy, making it more appealing to everyday investors.

无论即将到来的白宫选举结果如何，比特币的监管前景似乎都在改善。有利的监管环境可以增强比特币的合法性，使其对普通投资者更具吸引力。

Bitcoin's Unique Qualities and Long-Term Potential

比特币的独特品质和长期潜力

In isolation, the foundational attributes of Bitcoin are compelling. Created 15 years ago, Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency that enabled two parties to send money electronically without needing an intermediary like a bank. This breakthrough introduced a new level of financial freedom and efficiency, paving the way for the future of digital currencies.

单独来看，比特币的基本属性是引人注目的。比特币创建于 15 年前，是第一个使两方能够以电子方式汇款而无需银行等中介机构的加密货币。这一突破将金融自由度和效率提升到了新的水平，为数字货币的未来铺平了道路。

A standout feature of Bitcoin is its fixed supply cap. There will only ever be a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins in circulation, with approximately 19.8 million currently in existence. This limited supply contrasts traditional fiat currencies, which can be printed in unlimited quantities. The fixed supply cap is a crucial aspect that underscores Bitcoin’s value proposition as a deflationary asset.

比特币的一个突出特点是其固定的供应上限。比特币的流通量最多只有 2100 万个，目前大约有 1980 万个。这种有限的供应量与可以无限量印刷的传统法定货币形成鲜明对比。固定供应上限是强调比特币作为通缩资产价值主张的一个关键方面。

While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, Bitcoin's historical track record is impressive. According to BlackRock, BTC outperformed every major asset class in seven out of ten years from the start of 2014 through 2023. This strong performance highlights Bitcoin’s potential as a high-yield investment over the long term.

虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，但比特币的历史记录令人印象深刻。据贝莱德称，从 2014 年初到 2023 年，十年间有七年，比特币的表现优于所有主要资产类别。这一强劲表现凸显了比特币作为长期高收益投资的潜力。

In 2024 alone, Bitcoin has already seen a significant increase of about 60%, outperforming the broader S&P 500 by a substantial margin. This robust performance this year strengthens the case that Bitcoin remains a viable investment option, even as it trades below the $70,000 threshold.

仅在 2024 年，比特币就已经大幅上涨了约 60%，大幅跑赢了更广泛的标准普尔 500 指数。今年的强劲表现证明了比特币仍然是一种可行的投资选择，尽管其交易价格低于 70,000 美元。

2024 Presidential Candidates Show Support for BitcoinFor the first time, Bitcoin has become a key issue in a presidential campaign. As the November election approaches, former President Donald Trump has positioned himself as a pro-Bitcoin candidate and is widely seen as someone likely to back Bitcoin if he wins office.

2024 年总统候选人对比特币表示支持比特币首次成为总统竞选的关键问题。随着 11 月大选的临近，前总统唐纳德·特朗普将自己定位为支持比特币的候选人，并被广泛认为如果他当选，他可能会支持比特币。

Trump has spoken about supporting the U.S. Bitcoin mining industry, floated the idea of creating a national Bitcoin reserve and hinted at Bitcoin’s role in lowering the nation’s $35 trillion debt. He has also vowed to remove SEC head Gary Gensler, who many view as blocking Bitcoin's growth in the country.

特朗普曾谈到支持美国比特币采矿业，提出了建立国家比特币储备的想法，并暗示比特币在降低美国 35 万亿美元债务方面的作用。他还发誓要罢免 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)，许多人认为他阻碍了比特币在该国的增长。

If Trump wins, it could be highly favorable for Bitcoin. However, even if he loses, the political climate is clearly shifting in Bitcoin’s favor.

如果特朗普获胜，可能对比特币非常有利。然而，即使他输了，政治气候也显然正在向有利于比特币的方向转变。

At the moment, the U.S. presidential race is still too close to predict, and this uncertainty may explain why many investors are waiting. However, the outcome of this election could have a major impact on Bitcoin's future.

目前，美国总统竞选的胜负仍难以预测，这种不确定性或许可以解释为什么许多投资者正在等待。然而，这次选举的结果可能会对比特币的未来产生重大影响。

Taking all these factors into account, investing in Bitcoin while it trades below $70,000 seems like a smart move for many investors, as long as you have a long-term time horizon and are prepared for volatility.

考虑到所有这些因素，只要您有长期的投资期限并为波动做好准备，在比特币交易价格低于 70,000 美元时投资比特币对于许多投资者来说似乎是明智之举。

The combination of favorable monetary policy, successful Bitcoin ETFs and 2024 presidential candidates' support for Bitcoin presents a compelling case for investment. Additionally, Bitcoin's historical performance and finite supply provide strong evidence of its potential to deliver significant returns over time.

有利的货币政策、成功的比特币 ETF 以及 2024 年总统候选人对比特币的支持相结合，为投资提供了令人信服的理由。此外，比特币的历史表现和有限的供应量有力地证明了其随着时间的推移带来显着回报的潜力。

As the data below shows, on a long enough time horizon, Bitcoin will outpace most other assets.

如下数据所示，在足够长的时间范围内，比特币将超过大多数其他资产。

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