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比特币价格(BTC 1.71%)在 3 月份触及 73,750 美元的历史新高后,最近回落至 61,000 美元以下。臭名昭著的 Mt. Gox 交易所即将进行的资产分配目前正在搅动局势,而通胀压力仍在对成长型股票和加密货币等波动性资产类别产生有趣的影响。
After hitting an all-time high of $73,750 in March, the price of Bitcoin (BTC 1.71%) has recently slipped back under $61,000. The upcoming distribution of assets from the notorious Mt. Gox exchange is stirring the pot right now, and inflationary pressures are still doing funny things to volatile asset classes such as growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
比特币价格(BTC 1.71%)在 3 月份触及 73,750 美元的历史新高后,最近回落至 61,000 美元以下。臭名昭著的 Mt. Gox 交易所即将进行的资产分配目前正在搅动局势,而通胀压力仍在对成长型股票和加密货币等波动性资产类别产生有趣的影响。
But don't let the short-term noise fool you. With the recent halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, a capped lifetime supply, and new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) making Bitcoin more accessible than ever, there are some strong reasons to consider buying now. Let's dive into three of them.
但不要让短期的噪音欺骗了你。随着最近比特币挖矿奖励减半、终身供应量上限以及新的交易所交易基金(ETF)使比特币比以往任何时候都更容易获得,有一些充分的理由考虑现在购买。让我们深入探讨其中的三个。
1. Historical post-halving price increases
1.历史减半后价格上涨
Bitcoin's halving events have historically been strong catalysts for price appreciation. After the halving, which reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created, you typically see a supply squeeze that drives prices higher. The effect is never immediate and the next cyclical peak usually appears between 12 and 18 months later. As such, Bitcoin prices might wobble over the summer before surging over the upcoming fall, winter, and spring. The precise timing cannot be predicted but the general theme is pretty reliable.
从历史上看,比特币减半事件一直是价格上涨的强大催化剂。减半后,新比特币的创造速度会降低,您通常会看到供应紧张,从而推高价格。效果永远不会立竿见影,下一个周期性峰值通常会在 12 至 18 个月后出现。因此,比特币价格可能会在夏季波动,然后在即将到来的秋季、冬季和春季飙升。准确的时间无法预测,但总体主题是相当可靠的。
This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, with significant price increases occurring several months to a year and a half after each halving. The next substantial bull run should be right around the corner. I don't know how high the Bitcoin price chart may jump in this halving cycle, but it should be far above the roughly $64,400 peak of the 2020-2024 round.
这种模式在之前的周期中曾重复出现,每次减半后几个月到一年半的时间里价格都会大幅上涨。下一次大幅牛市应该即将到来。我不知道比特币价格图表在这个减半周期中可能会跳多高,但它应该远高于 2020-2024 年这一轮大约 64,400 美元的峰值。
2. Institutional investors are coming
2、机构投资者来了
The introduction of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in February was a watershed moment for Bitcoin. These ETFs offer institutional investors a straightforward way to gain exposure to Bitcoin, potentially leading to a massive influx of capital into the market. At the same time, ordinary investors like you and me may have access to spot Bitcoin ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 4.37%) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC 4.40%) in standard retirement savings accounts.
二月份推出的第一只现货比特币 ETF 是比特币的分水岭。这些 ETF 为机构投资者提供了一种直接接触比特币的方式,可能导致大量资本涌入市场。与此同时,像你我这样的普通投资者可以在标准退休储蓄账户中获得现货比特币 ETF,例如 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT 4.37%) 和 Fidelity Wise Origin 比特币基金 (FBTC 4.40%)。
This institutional interest can drive demand and prices higher over time. So far, the new ETFs have absorbed about $50 billion of direct Bitcoin holdings. roughly 4% of the total Bitcoin market.
随着时间的推移,这种机构利益可以推动需求和价格走高。到目前为止,新的 ETF 已吸收了约 500 亿美元的直接比特币持有量。大约占比特币市场总量的 4%。
3. Bitcoin's built-in scarcity
3. 比特币固有的稀缺性
There's only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoins, and that's set in stone. This hard cap makes Bitcoin one of the few assets with a truly limited supply.
比特币的总量永远只有 2100 万个,这是板上钉钉的事情。这种硬上限使比特币成为少数供应真正有限的资产之一。
Noted growth investor Cathie Wood realized that the supply of new Bitcoin coins is now increasing at a slower rate than the mining of physical gold is boosting gold supplies. As demand keeps climbing and the total supply remains fixed, the basic rules of economics suggest that prices will go up over the long haul. It's like owning a piece of digital gold -- a goal that was explicitly stated in Bitcoin's original design documents. That mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto figure sure had some long-range ambitions in 2009.
著名成长型投资者凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)意识到,新比特币供应量的增长速度低于实物黄金开采增加黄金供应量的速度。随着需求不断攀升而总供应保持不变,经济学的基本规则表明,价格将长期上涨。这就像拥有一块数字黄金——比特币最初的设计文件中明确阐述了这一目标。那个神秘的中本聪人物在 2009 年肯定有一些长远的野心。
It's high time to get into Bitcoin
现在是进入比特币的好时机
There's a lot more to say, but those are the basics of Bitcoin investing in the summer of 2024. Scarcity is not changing, halvings build value, and wider Bitcoin availability should boost the market.
还有很多话要说,但这些是 2024 年夏季比特币投资的基础知识。稀缺性没有改变,减半会创造价值,而更广泛的比特币可用性应该会提振市场。
If you don't have any Bitcoin in your portfolio yet, this pullback could be the perfect time to get started. Just remember that the road ahead may be bumpy, and you shouldn't let the occasional pothole scare you off the road to digital currency riches. As with any other asset class or industry, crypto investing is a marathon and not a sprint. Patience tends to be rewarded by the market in the long haul.
如果您的投资组合中还没有任何比特币,那么这次回调可能是开始的最佳时机。请记住,前方的道路可能会崎岖不平,您不应该让偶尔的坑洼吓跑您,远离数字货币致富之路。与任何其他资产类别或行业一样,加密货币投资是一场马拉松,而不是短跑。从长远来看,耐心往往会得到市场的回报。
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