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比特幣價格(BTC 1.71%)在 3 月觸及 73,750 美元的歷史新高後,最近回落至 61,000 美元以下。臭名昭著的 Mt. Gox 交易所即將進行的資產分配目前正在攪動局勢,而通膨壓力仍在對成長型股票和加密貨幣等波動性資產類別產生有趣的影響。
After hitting an all-time high of $73,750 in March, the price of Bitcoin (BTC 1.71%) has recently slipped back under $61,000. The upcoming distribution of assets from the notorious Mt. Gox exchange is stirring the pot right now, and inflationary pressures are still doing funny things to volatile asset classes such as growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
比特幣價格(BTC 1.71%)在 3 月觸及 73,750 美元的歷史新高後,最近回落至 61,000 美元以下。臭名昭著的 Mt. Gox 交易所即將進行的資產分配目前正在攪動局勢,而通膨壓力仍在對成長型股票和加密貨幣等波動性資產類別產生有趣的影響。
But don't let the short-term noise fool you. With the recent halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, a capped lifetime supply, and new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) making Bitcoin more accessible than ever, there are some strong reasons to consider buying now. Let's dive into three of them.
但不要讓短期的噪音欺騙了你。隨著最近比特幣挖礦獎勵減半、終身供應上限以及新的交易所交易基金(ETF)使比特幣比以往任何時候都更容易獲得,有一些充分的理由考慮現在購買。讓我們深入探討其中的三個。
1. Historical post-halving price increases
1.歷史減半後價格上漲
Bitcoin's halving events have historically been strong catalysts for price appreciation. After the halving, which reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created, you typically see a supply squeeze that drives prices higher. The effect is never immediate and the next cyclical peak usually appears between 12 and 18 months later. As such, Bitcoin prices might wobble over the summer before surging over the upcoming fall, winter, and spring. The precise timing cannot be predicted but the general theme is pretty reliable.
從歷史上看,比特幣減半事件一直是價格上漲的強大催化劑。減半後,新比特幣的創造速度會降低,您通常會看到供應緊張,從而推高價格。效果永遠不會立竿見影,下一個週期性高峰通常會在 12 至 18 個月後出現。因此,比特幣價格可能會在夏季波動,然後在即將到來的秋季、冬季和春季飆升。準確的時間無法預測,但整體主題是相當可靠的。
This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, with significant price increases occurring several months to a year and a half after each halving. The next substantial bull run should be right around the corner. I don't know how high the Bitcoin price chart may jump in this halving cycle, but it should be far above the roughly $64,400 peak of the 2020-2024 round.
這種模式在先前的周期中曾重複出現,每次減半後幾個月到一年半的時間裡價格都會大幅上漲。下一次大幅牛市應該即將到來。我不知道比特幣價格圖表在這個減半週期中可能會跳多高,但它應該遠高於 2020-2024 年這一輪大約 64,400 美元的峰值。
2. Institutional investors are coming
2.機構投資人來了
The introduction of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in February was a watershed moment for Bitcoin. These ETFs offer institutional investors a straightforward way to gain exposure to Bitcoin, potentially leading to a massive influx of capital into the market. At the same time, ordinary investors like you and me may have access to spot Bitcoin ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 4.37%) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC 4.40%) in standard retirement savings accounts.
二月推出的第一隻現貨比特幣 ETF 是比特幣的分水嶺。這些 ETF 為機構投資者提供了一種直接接觸比特幣的方式,可能導致大量資金湧入市場。同時,像你我這樣的普通投資者可以在標準退休儲蓄帳戶中獲得現貨比特幣 ETF,例如 iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT 4.37%) 和 Fidelity Wise Origin 比特幣基金 (FBTC 4.40%)。
This institutional interest can drive demand and prices higher over time. So far, the new ETFs have absorbed about $50 billion of direct Bitcoin holdings. roughly 4% of the total Bitcoin market.
隨著時間的推移,這種機構利益可以推動需求和價格走高。到目前為止,新的 ETF 已吸收了約 500 億美元的直接比特幣持有量。約佔比特幣市場總量的 4%。
3. Bitcoin's built-in scarcity
3. 比特幣固有的稀缺性
There's only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoins, and that's set in stone. This hard cap makes Bitcoin one of the few assets with a truly limited supply.
比特幣的總量永遠只有 2,100 萬個,這是板上釘釘的事。這種硬上限使比特幣成為少數供應真正有限的資產之一。
Noted growth investor Cathie Wood realized that the supply of new Bitcoin coins is now increasing at a slower rate than the mining of physical gold is boosting gold supplies. As demand keeps climbing and the total supply remains fixed, the basic rules of economics suggest that prices will go up over the long haul. It's like owning a piece of digital gold -- a goal that was explicitly stated in Bitcoin's original design documents. That mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto figure sure had some long-range ambitions in 2009.
著名成長型投資者凱西·伍德(Cathie Wood)意識到,新比特幣供應量的成長速度低於實體黃金開採增加黃金供應量的速度。隨著需求不斷攀升而總供應保持不變,經濟學的基本規則表明,價格將長期上漲。這就像擁有一塊數位黃金——比特幣最初的設計文件中明確闡述了這一目標。那個神秘的中本聰人物在 2009 年肯定有一些長遠的野心。
It's high time to get into Bitcoin
現在是進入比特幣的好時機
There's a lot more to say, but those are the basics of Bitcoin investing in the summer of 2024. Scarcity is not changing, halvings build value, and wider Bitcoin availability should boost the market.
還有很多話要說,但這些是 2024 年夏季比特幣投資的基礎知識。
If you don't have any Bitcoin in your portfolio yet, this pullback could be the perfect time to get started. Just remember that the road ahead may be bumpy, and you shouldn't let the occasional pothole scare you off the road to digital currency riches. As with any other asset class or industry, crypto investing is a marathon and not a sprint. Patience tends to be rewarded by the market in the long haul.
如果您的投資組合中還沒有任何比特幣,那麼這次回檔可能是開始的最佳時機。請記住,前方的道路可能會崎嶇不平,您不應該讓偶爾的坑洞嚇跑您,遠離數位貨幣致富之路。與其他資產類別或行業一樣,加密貨幣投資是一場馬拉松,而不是短跑。從長遠來看,耐心往往會得到市場的回報。
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