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加密货币新闻

长期比特币(BTC)持有人正在出售,这是看涨的标志

2025/01/30 14:06

但是,根据观察历史趋势的分析师的说法,叙述在加密货币市场上有所不同,在加密货币市场中,这种销售表明了看涨。

长期比特币(BTC)持有人正在出售,这是看涨的标志

As the price of bitcoin (BTC) continues to rally, reaching new all-time highs above $110,000, a key metric that has historically signaled bullishness is also unfolding.

随着比特币(BTC)的价格继续集会,达到110,000美元以上的新历史最高点,这是一种历史上表明看涨的关键指标也在不断发展。

According to several analysts, the selling pressure from long-term holders, defined as those who have held their coins for at least 155 days (around five months), is being absorbed by short-term traders, who are snapping up BTC at record highs.

根据几位分析师的说法,长期持有人的销售压力定义为那些持有硬币至少155天(大约五个月)的人正在被短期交易者吸收,他们正在以创纪录的高潮捕捉BTC 。

This dynamic is highlighted by the flattening long-term holder supply, shown in purple on the below chart from 10x Research. Notably, this metric serves as a proxy for the supply available on exchanges.

长期持有人的供应表现为这种动态,在10倍研究的下图中以紫色显示。值得注意的是,该指标是交换中可用供应的代理。

"Based on our analysis, sharp declines in long-term holder supply (purple line) have frequently coincided with strong bitcoin rallies (white line), as seen in Q1 and Q4 of 2024," 10x Research founder Markus Thielen stated in a report shared with CoinDesk. "As long as long-term holders continue reducing their balances, bitcoin remains at risk of a short squeeze to the upside."

“基于我们的分析,长期持有人供应(紫色线)的急剧下降经常与强大的比特币集会(白线)相吻合,如2024年第1季度和第四季度所示,” 10倍研究创始人Markus Thielen在一份报告中表示。与Coindesk。 “只要长期持有人继续降低其余额,比特币仍处于短暂挤压状态的风险。”

Moreover, data from analytics firm Glassnode shows that over 1 million BTC have moved from long-term to short-term holders during the recent price rise above $100,000.

此外,分析公司GlassNode的数据表明,在最近的价格上涨超过100,000美元以上,超过100万BTC已从长期持有人转移到短期持有人。

"During the recent rally above $100K, 1.1M BTC have transferred from long-term to short-term holders, representing an impressive inflow of demand to absorb this supply at prices above $90K," Glassnode noted in its weekly report.

GlassNode在每周的报告中指出:“在最近的一次超过100,000美元以上的集会中,110万BTC从长期到短期持有人转移了,这代表了以超过90k美元的价格吸收这种供应的需求的令人印象深刻的需求。”

However, it's worth mentioning that the pace at which long-term holders are selling has slowed down recently. This change can be observed in the monthly rate of change in the long-term to short-term holder supply ratio, which is no longer as drastic as it was earlier this month.

但是,值得一提的是,长期持有人销售的速度最近放慢了。长期与短期持有人的供应率的每月变化率可以观察到这种变化,这不再像本月初那样剧烈。

This slowdown indicates a more measured approach to selling by long-term holders.

这种放缓表明长期持有人的销售方法更为衡量。

Bitcoin’s Exchange Balance Slides to 2.7M BTC

比特币的交换余额幻灯片至270万BTC

Separately, the total amount of BTC held in wallets linked to centralized cryptocurrency exchanges has declined to 2.7 million BTC, down from over three million about six months ago, Glassnode reported.

据GlassNode报道,另外,与集中的加密货币交易所有关的钱包中持有的BTC总数已下降到270万BTC,比大约六个月前的300万人下降了。

This exodus of BTC from exchanges, which results in reduced availability of coins for quick sales, is usually regarded as a bullish indicator. However, the dynamics have shifted since the debut of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States last year.

BTC从交易所的出埃及记出来,导致硬币的可用性减少,以快速销售,通常被视为看涨指标。但是,自去年美国的现货交易所买卖基金(ETF)首次亮相以来,动态发生了变化。

"Many interpret this as a form of supply shock caused by a mass of coins being withdrawn by individual investors—potentially creating upward price pressure," Glassnode stated. "We believe the majority of this decline stems from coins reshuffling into ETF wallets managed by custodians like Coinbase."

GlassNode说:“许多人将其解释为由个人投资者撤回的大量硬币引起的一种供应冲击形式,可以肯定地产生向上的价格压力。” “我们认为,这种下降的大多数源于硬币重新装入由Coinbase这样的保管人管理的ETF钱包。”

In other words, these coins have ended up in an ETF, which is a liquid or active alternative investment vehicle that can be bought and sold just as quickly as actual coins.

换句话说,这些硬币最终进入了ETF,这是一种液体或活跃的替代投资工具,可以像实际硬币一样快地买卖。

When adjusting for the coins that have been moved to alternative vehicles, the exchange balance stands at over 3 million BTC, as per Glassnode.

根据玻璃节点,调整已移至替代车辆的硬币时,交换余额为300万BTC。

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