未平仓合约激增推动 Dogwifhat 反弹，但回调迫在眉睫

激增的未平仓合约 (OI) 推动了排名第 29 位的加密货币 WIF 的抛物线上涨。自 2 月底以来，未平仓合约总价值已上涨 10 倍，表明买家的积极性有所增加。然而，最近 WIF 价格的下跌表明，在其市值达到 60 亿美元之前，可能会出现短期回调。

Surging Open Interest Drives Dogwifhat's Meteoric Rise, but Retracement Looms on Horizon

未平仓合约激增推动 Dogwifhat 股价迅速上涨，但回调即将来临

The cryptocurrency markets have witnessed an unprecedented surge in interest in Dogwifhat (WIF), propelling it to the rank of the 29th most valuable cryptocurrency. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the Open Interest (OI) in the derivatives market has played a pivotal role in this parabolic rally, and a potential retracement may be imminent before WIF aims for a $6 billion market capitalization.

加密货币市场对 Dogwifhat (WIF) 的兴趣空前激增，使其跻身最有价值加密货币第 29 位。然而，更深入的分析表明，衍生品市场的未平仓合约（OI）在这次抛物线上涨中发挥了关键作用，在 WIF 目标达到 60 亿美元市值之前，潜在的回调可能迫在眉睫。

Open Interest: A Measure of Market Momentum

未平仓合约：衡量市场动力的指标

OI represents the total value of open contracts in the market. As of the time of writing, WIF's OI stood at a staggering $654.01 million, according to data from Coinglass. This represents a remarkable 10-fold increase since February 27th, when the OI was below $60 million.

OI 代表市场上未平仓合约的总价值。根据 Coinglass 的数据，截至撰写本文时，WIF 的 OI 达到惊人的 6.5401 亿美元。自 2 月 27 日 OI 低于 6000 万美元以来，这一数字显着增长了 10 倍。

From a trading standpoint, such a significant increase in OI suggests that buyers have been far more aggressive than sellers. Consequently, the substantial OI, backed by ample liquidity, has fueled WIF's explosive growth.

从交易的角度来看，持仓量如此显着增加表明买家比卖家更激进。因此，大量的OI在充裕的流动性的支持下，推动了WIF的爆发式增长。

Cooling Off: A Potential Retracement

冷静下来：潜在的回调

While WIF's market capitalization has surged to $4.22 billion at the time of writing, it is unlikely that the market's enthusiasm for WIF will continue indefinitely. If the momentum wanes, the memecoin's valuation could potentially halve in the coming weeks.

尽管在撰写本文时，WIF 的市值已飙升至 42.2 亿美元，但市场对 WIF 的热情不太可能无限期地持续下去。如果这种势头减弱，模因币的估值可能会在未来几周内减半。

Funding Rate: A Bearish Indicator

资金费率：看跌指标

To further assess WIF's future trajectory, it is important to consider the Funding Rate, a measure of the cost of holding perpetual futures contracts. At the time of writing, WIF's Funding Rate was 0.067, while the predicted rate was 0.078. However, the price of WIF has declined in the past four hours, an indication that perp buyers may be experiencing disbelief.

为了进一步评估 WIF 的未来轨迹，重要的是要考虑资金利率，这是衡量持有永续期货合约成本的指标。截至撰写本文时，WIF 的资金利率为 0.067，而预测利率为 0.078。然而，WIF 的价格在过去四个小时内有所下降，这表明永久购买者可能感到难以置信。

Historically, when Funding becomes elevated and the price moves lower, it has often been a bearish sign, suggesting that WIF could drop below $4.45 in the short term.

从历史上看，当资金增加而价格走低时，通常是一个看跌信号，表明 WIF 可能在短期内跌破 4.45 美元。

Target: $6 Billion Market Cap

目标：60亿美元市值

Conversely, if the price rebounds while the Funding Rate remains positive, the token's value could potentially surpass $5. In such a scenario, WIF's market capitalization could inch closer to the $6 billion mark.

相反，如果价格反弹而资金费率保持正值，代币的价值可能会超过 5 美元。在这种情况下，WIF 的市值可能会接近 60 亿美元大关。

On-Chain Data: Dampening Expectations

链上数据：降低预期

However, on-chain data provided by Santiment reveals a subtle shift in market sentiment. The Weighted Sentiment, which tracks positive and negative commentary, has fallen to 0.018, indicating a significant decrease in the rate of optimistic remarks about the project.

然而，Santiment 提供的链上数据揭示了市场情绪的微妙变化。追踪正面和负面评论的加权情绪已降至0.018，表明对该项目的乐观评论率大幅下降。

This decline suggests that market participants are lowering their expectations for WIF. Similarly, the social volume around WIF has dropped, further suggesting that interest in the memecoin is waning.

这种下降表明市场参与者正在降低对 WIF 的预期。同样，围绕 WIF 的社交量也有所下降，进一步表明人们对 memecoin 的兴趣正在减弱。

Realistic Market Cap: Between $4.45 and $10 Billion

实际市值：44.5 美元至 100 亿美元之间

If interest in WIF continues to decline, demand for the cryptocurrency could also fall, potentially pushing its price below $4.45. Conversely, a resurgence in buying pressure could drive the value higher, potentially propelling the market capitalization beyond the $5 billion mark.

如果对 WIF 的兴趣继续下降，对加密货币的需求也可能下降，可能导致其价格跌破 4.45 美元。相反，购买压力的复苏可能会推高其价值，有可能推动市值突破 50 亿美元大关。

For the time being, WIF is likely to remain in the 25th to 30th position in terms of market capitalization, with a range of roughly $4.45 billion to $10 billion.

目前，WIF 的市值可能仍保持在第 25 至 30 位，范围约为 44.5 亿至 100 亿美元。