未平倉合約激增推動 Dogwifhat 反彈，但回調迫在眉睫

激增的未平倉合約 (OI) 推動了排名第 29 位的加密貨幣 WIF 的拋物線上漲。自 2 月底以來，未平倉合約總價值已上漲 10 倍，顯示買家的積極性增加。然而，最近 WIF 價格的下跌表明，在其市值達到 60 億美元之前，可能會出現短期回檔。

Surging Open Interest Drives Dogwifhat's Meteoric Rise, but Retracement Looms on Horizon

未平倉合約激增推動 Dogwifhat 股價迅速上漲，但回檔即將來臨

The cryptocurrency markets have witnessed an unprecedented surge in interest in Dogwifhat (WIF), propelling it to the rank of the 29th most valuable cryptocurrency. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the Open Interest (OI) in the derivatives market has played a pivotal role in this parabolic rally, and a potential retracement may be imminent before WIF aims for a $6 billion market capitalization.

加密貨幣市場對 Dogwifhat (WIF) 的興趣空前激增，使其躋身最有價值加密貨幣第 29 位。然而，更深入的分析表明，衍生性商品市場的未平倉合約（OI）在這次拋物線上漲中發揮了關鍵作用，在 WIF 目標達到 60 億美元市值之前，潛在的回檔可能迫在眉睫。

Open Interest: A Measure of Market Momentum

未平倉合約：衡量市場動力的指標

OI represents the total value of open contracts in the market. As of the time of writing, WIF's OI stood at a staggering $654.01 million, according to data from Coinglass. This represents a remarkable 10-fold increase since February 27th, when the OI was below $60 million.

OI 代表市場上未平倉合約的總價值。根據 Coinglass 的數據，截至撰寫本文時，WIF 的 OI 達到驚人的 6.5401 億美元。自 2 月 27 日 OI 低於 6,000 萬美元以來，這一數字顯著增加了 10 倍。

From a trading standpoint, such a significant increase in OI suggests that buyers have been far more aggressive than sellers. Consequently, the substantial OI, backed by ample liquidity, has fueled WIF's explosive growth.

從交易的角度來看，持倉量如此顯著增加表明買家比賣家更積極。因此，大量的OI在充裕的流動性的支持下，推動了WIF的爆發式成長。

Cooling Off: A Potential Retracement

冷靜下來：潛在的回調

While WIF's market capitalization has surged to $4.22 billion at the time of writing, it is unlikely that the market's enthusiasm for WIF will continue indefinitely. If the momentum wanes, the memecoin's valuation could potentially halve in the coming weeks.

儘管在撰寫本文時，WIF 的市值已飆升至 42.2 億美元，但市場對 WIF 的熱情不太可能無限期地持續下去。如果這種勢頭減弱，模因幣的估值可能會在未來幾週內減半。

Funding Rate: A Bearish Indicator

資金費率：看跌指標

To further assess WIF's future trajectory, it is important to consider the Funding Rate, a measure of the cost of holding perpetual futures contracts. At the time of writing, WIF's Funding Rate was 0.067, while the predicted rate was 0.078. However, the price of WIF has declined in the past four hours, an indication that perp buyers may be experiencing disbelief.

為了進一步評估 WIF 的未來軌跡，重要的是要考慮資金利率，這是衡量持有永續期貨合約成本的指標。截至撰寫本文時，WIF 的資金利率為 0.067，而預測利率為 0.078。然而，WIF 的價格在過去四個小時內有所下降，這表明永久購買者可能感到難以置信。

Historically, when Funding becomes elevated and the price moves lower, it has often been a bearish sign, suggesting that WIF could drop below $4.45 in the short term.

從歷史上看，當資金增加而價格走低時，通常是一個看跌信號，表明 WIF 可能在短期內跌破 4.45 美元。

Target: $6 Billion Market Cap

目標：60億美元市值

Conversely, if the price rebounds while the Funding Rate remains positive, the token's value could potentially surpass $5. In such a scenario, WIF's market capitalization could inch closer to the $6 billion mark.

相反，如果價格反彈而資金費率保持正值，代幣的價值可能會超過 5 美元。在這種情況下，WIF 的市值可能會接近 60 億美元大關。

On-Chain Data: Dampening Expectations

鏈上數據：降低預期

However, on-chain data provided by Santiment reveals a subtle shift in market sentiment. The Weighted Sentiment, which tracks positive and negative commentary, has fallen to 0.018, indicating a significant decrease in the rate of optimistic remarks about the project.

然而，Santiment 提供的鏈上數據揭示了市場情緒的微妙變化。追蹤正面和負面評論的加權情緒已降至0.018，顯示對該項目的樂觀評論率大幅下降。

This decline suggests that market participants are lowering their expectations for WIF. Similarly, the social volume around WIF has dropped, further suggesting that interest in the memecoin is waning.

這種下降表明市場參與者正在降低對 WIF 的預期。同樣，圍繞 WIF 的社交量也有所下降，進一步表明人們對 memecoin 的興趣正在減弱。

Realistic Market Cap: Between $4.45 and $10 Billion

實際市值：44.5 美元至 100 億美元之間

If interest in WIF continues to decline, demand for the cryptocurrency could also fall, potentially pushing its price below $4.45. Conversely, a resurgence in buying pressure could drive the value higher, potentially propelling the market capitalization beyond the $5 billion mark.

如果對 WIF 的興趣繼續下降，對加密貨幣的需求也可能下降，可能導致其價格跌破 4.45 美元。相反，購買壓力的復甦可能會推高其價值，有可能推動市值突破 50 億美元大關。

For the time being, WIF is likely to remain in the 25th to 30th position in terms of market capitalization, with a range of roughly $4.45 billion to $10 billion.

目前，WIF 的市值可能仍保持在第 25 至 30 位，範圍約為 44.5 億至 100 億美元。