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在需求不断增长的情况下,Sui Network (SUI) 以令人印象深刻的速度和价格表现提升了加密货币市场排名
The Sui Network (SUI) token has seen impressive price performance and rising demand in the cryptocurrency market. However, this rapid ascent has also triggered several technical indicators that may be signaling a potential selling opportunity.
Sui Network(SUI)代币的价格表现令人印象深刻,加密货币市场的需求不断增长。然而,这种快速上涨也引发了多项技术指标,这些指标可能预示着潜在的抛售机会。
According to Finbold’s analysis of data from CoinGlass’s RSI heatmap on October 13, SUI is the only cryptocurrency that is displaying an overbought status on a weekly timeframe.
根据 Finbold 10 月 13 日对 CoinGlass RSI 热图数据的分析,SUI 是唯一在每周时间范围内显示超买状态的加密货币。
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate whether an asset is overbought or oversold. An RSI value above 70 is typically considered overbought.
相对强弱指数(RSI)是一种动量震荡指标,用于衡量近期价格变化的幅度,以评估资产是否超买或超卖。 RSI 值高于 70 通常被视为超买。
Specifically, SUI’s RSI marks 73.43, 74.7, 71.65, 73.84, and 72.68 at the 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, 24-hour, and 1-week time frames, respectively.
具体来说,SUI 的 RSI 在 1 小时、4 小时、12 小时、24 小时和 1 周时间范围内分别为 73.43、74.7、71.65、73.84 和 72.68。
This overbought status across multiple time frames suggests that SUI’s price may be due for a correction, especially considering the diminishing returns on the RSI over the last seven days.
这种跨越多个时间范围的超买状态表明,SUI 的价格可能会进行调整,特别是考虑到过去 7 天 RSI 的收益递减。
Furthermore, a closer examination of SUI’s daily price chart, as indicated by TradingView’s crypto index, reveals a similar indication of an overbought SUI.
此外,仔细检查 SUI 的每日价格图表(如 TradingView 的加密货币指数所示),会发现类似的 SUI 超买迹象。
The daily RSI marks 72.07 in this index at $2.21, retracing after reaching a $2.29 all-time high.
该指数的每日 RSI 为 72.07,为 2.21 美元,在达到 2.29 美元的历史高点后回落。
Notably, the chart also displays a bearish divergence starting on September 24, which could suggest a reversal from this rally. The bearish divergence appears with SUI’s price making three subsequent higher highs while the RSI makes three subsequent lower highs.
值得注意的是,该图表还显示自 9 月 24 日开始的看跌背离,这可能表明本次反弹出现逆转。看跌背离出现,SUI 价格连续创出三个更高的高点,而 RSI 连续创出三个更低的高点。
We also spotted this pattern in the weekly and 4-hour chart against the dollar.
我们还在兑美元的周线图和 4 小时图上发现了这种模式。
Overbought SUI price analysis and bearish divergence
超买 SUI 价格分析和看跌背离
Interestingly, a reversal here is expected according to multiple other indicators and analysts. Finbold, for example, reported a Sui price prediction by the reputable trader, pejman_zwin, on TradingView, using the Elliott Wave theory.
有趣的是,根据多个其他指标和分析师的预测,预计会出现逆转。例如,Finbold 在 TradingView 上报道了著名交易员 pejman_zwin 使用艾略特波浪理论进行的 Sui 价格预测。
“Currently, SUI is moving near the Resistance lines and the Potential Reversal Zone. According to the theory of Elliot waves, SUI seems to be completing the main wave 3. (It is completing the microwave 5 of the main wave 3). I expect SUI to rise another +20% or so and then start to correct. SUI correction can be -20% to -40%.”
“目前,SUI 正在阻力线和潜在反转区附近移动。根据艾略特波浪理论,SUI似乎正在完成主波3。(它正在完成主波3的微波5)。我预计 SUI 将再上涨 20% 左右,然后开始调整。 SUI 修正可以是 -20% 到 -40%。”
– pejman_zwin
– pejman_zwin
The forecasted 20% rise is already completed, previously targeting $2.30 per token. Now, if the analysis plays out as expected, SUI could be heading to a -20% to -40% correction wave four.
预计 20% 的上涨已经完成,之前的目标是每个代币 2.30 美元。现在,如果分析结果符合预期,SUI 可能会进入 -20% 至 -40% 的第四波修正波。
Sui Network fundamental analysis
穗网基本面分析
Meanwhile, the Sui Network gained the spotlight due to its solid technology stack and distinguished user experience. Many cryptocurrency investors and users have deemed SUI the Solana (SOL) killer, resulting in a capital inflow to the project.
与此同时,穗网络凭借扎实的技术栈和卓越的用户体验而受到关注。许多加密货币投资者和用户将 SUI 视为 Solana (SOL) 杀手,导致资金流入该项目。
Recently, Circle deployed its dollar stablecoin USDC natively on the Sui Network, bringing relevant liquidity to the ecosystem. A day later, Grayscale announced the Grayscale SUI trust, opening doors for institutional exposure to the token.
近期,Circle 在 Sui Network 上原生部署了美元稳定币 USDC,为生态系统带来了相关的流动性。一天后,Grayscale 宣布成立 Grayscale SUI 信托,为机构投资该代币打开了大门。
SUI tokenomics raises concerns
SUI 代币经济学引发担忧
On the other hand, SUI’s tokenomics raises concerns, given a highly weighted distribution to private investors and Mysten Labs.
另一方面,鉴于私人投资者和 Mysten Labs 的分配权重较高,SUI 的代币经济学引起了人们的担忧。
With less than 30% of all already distributed tokens in circulation, Sui has a high fully diluted value (FDV), most of which is being staked while still locked, increasing the asymmetry against retail traders and investors.
Sui 的流通代币占所有已分配代币的比例不到 30%,其完全稀释价值 (FDV) 很高,其中大部分在锁定状态下被质押,增加了针对散户交易者和投资者的不对称性。
Finbold reported October’s $100 million monthly unlock of SUI tokens, illustrating the expected selling pressure at such profit levels. Series A and B investors received the largest unlocked share, totaling 61%.
Finbold 报告称,10 月份 SUI 代币每月解锁额为 1 亿美元,说明了在这样的利润水平下预期的抛售压力。 A 轮和 B 轮投资者获得了最大的解锁份额,总计 61%。
In conclusion, while Sui’s technology, user experience, and adoption news sets the path for a bullish long term, its tokenomics and an overbought status, together with a spotted bearish divergences foreshadow an impeding correction and short-term weakening for SUI’s price.
总之,虽然 Sui 的技术、用户体验和采用消息为长期看涨奠定了基础,但其代币经济学和超买状态,以及发现的看跌背离预示着 SUI 价格的回调和短期疲软。
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