策略的积极的比特币积累策略项目持有量到2033年可能超过100万BTC。

比特币的价格波动，尤其是90,000美元大关，受期权市场动态影响。

In the constantly evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, one company stands out for its unwavering commitment to Bitcoin: Strategy.

在不断发展的加密货币景观中，一家公司因其对比特币的坚定承诺而脱颖而出。

Formerly recognized as MicroStrategy, the company has become synonymous with an aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, a move that has sparked widespread discussion and analysis among market observers.

该公司以前被公认为是微型流浪者，已成为一种积极的比特币积累策略的代名词，此举引发了市场观察者之间广泛的讨论和分析。

Now, a new forecast by Bernstein predicts that Strategy’s Bitcoin stash could burgeon past 1 million BTC by 2033. However, this ambitious plan will require substantial capital infusion, and the company’s stock price will largely depend on the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price over the next decade.

现在，伯恩斯坦的一个新预测预测，到2033年，战略的比特币藏匿处可能会超过100万BTC。但是，这个雄心勃勃的计划将需要大量资本注入，该公司的股价在很大程度上取决于比特币在未来十年中的价格轨迹。

The Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder is Still Expanding

最大的公司比特币持有人仍在扩大

At present, Strategy holds 506,137 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Bernstein’s latest forecast suggests that number could more than double, reaching 1,013,000 BTC. That would represent 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply.

目前，战略持有506,137 BTC，使其成为比特币的最大公司持有人。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的最新预测表明，数字可能会增加一倍以上，达到1,013,000 BTC。这将占比特币当前循环供应的5.8％。

This projection assumes Bitcoin will reach major price milestones in the coming years:

该预测假设比特币将在未来几年达到主要价格里程碑：

* Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033.

*到2025年底，比特币可能达到200,000美元，到2029年为500,000美元，到2033年为100万美元。

* To reach these price levels, the Bitcoin market cap would need to grow to $3.5 trillion by 2025, $8.5 trillion by 2029, and $16.7 trillion by 2033. For perspective, the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is currently around $1.5 trillion.

*为了达到这些价格水平，到2025年，比特币市值需要增长到3.5万亿美元，到2029年为8.5万亿美元，到2033年为16.7万亿美元。对于Perspective，所有加密货币的总市值目前约为1.5亿美元。

* These valuations are not unprecedented for major asset classes. By 2025, Bitcoin’s market cap would be about half the size of U.S. equities and a third of global investment grade bonds.

*这些估值不是主要资产类别的前所未有的。到2025年，比特币的市值将大约是美国股票的一半，是全球投资级债券的三分之一。

How Will Strategy Fund the Bitcoin Acquisitions?

战略将如何为比特币的收购提供资金？

To achieve this level of expansion, Strategy will likely need to raise a significant amount of capital. Analysts predict the company’s debt could climb from $11 billion to $100 billion, while it may also raise $84 billion through equity markets.

为了达到这一水平，战略可能需要筹集大量资本。分析师预测，该公司的债务可能会从110亿美元攀升至1000亿美元，而通过股票市场也可能筹集840亿美元。

Bernstein’s report suggests that lower interest rates and strong investor demand will be critical to making this strategy work. If interest rates rise faster than expected, or if investors become less interested in Strategy’s stock, it could put a damper on the company’s plans.

伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的报告表明，较低的利率和强劲的投资者需求对于使该策略起作用至关重要。如果利率上升的速度比预期的要快，或者投资者对策略的股票不太感兴趣，则可能会使公司的计划受损。

Bitcoin Market Makers

比特币做市商

With Bitcoin still trading below $90,000, many analysts see $90,000 as an important level where investor interest could return. Market makers, who influence short-term price movements, are expected to play a key role.

随着比特币仍低于90,000美元的交易，许多分析师将90,000美元视为投资者利息可能返回的重要水平。影响短期价格变动的做市商预计将发挥关键作用。

Data from Deribit shows that market makers are currently “short gamma” at this price level. This means they will need to buy Bitcoin when its price rises and sell when it falls, which could add to market volatility. Despite this, BloFin’s Griffin Ardern believes a bullish move could be ahead, especially as Friday’s options settlement approaches.

来自Deribit的数据表明，做市商目前在此价格水平上是“短伽玛”。这意味着，当比特币价格上涨和销售时，他们将需要购买，这可能会增加市场波动。尽管如此，布洛芬的格里芬·阿尔登（Griffin Ardern）认为，看涨的举动可能会遥遥领先，尤其是随着周五的选择和解的临近。

What Happens if Bitcoin Peaks and Declines?

如果比特币达到峰值和下降，会发生什么？

Not all analysts believe Bitcoin will continue rising without setbacks. If Bitcoin peaks in 2025 and then enters a long-term decline, Strategy might slow down its Bitcoin purchases. In that case, its holdings may reach only 514,800 BTC, about 2.6% of the total Bitcoin supply.

并非所有分析师都认为，没有挫折的情况下比特币将继续上升。如果比特币在2025年达到高峰，然后进入长期下降，则策略可能会减慢其比特币购买的速度。在这种情况下，其持有量可能仅达到514,800 BTC，约占比特币供应总额的2.6％。

If the company faces financial pressure, it may even need to sell some of its Bitcoin to manage its debt, which could still rise to around $51 billion, though at a slower pace than in the more optimistic scenario.

如果该公司面临财务压力，甚至可能需要出售一些比特币来管理其债务，尽管比在更乐观的情况下的速度较慢，但​​仍可能会增加510亿美元。

Bernstein Remains Bullish on Strategy

伯恩斯坦仍然看好战略

Despite the risks, Bernstein remains confident in Strategy’s long-term position. The firm has given the company an “outperform” rating and set a $600 price target, which would be a 75% increase from current levels.

尽管有风险，但伯恩斯坦仍然对战略的长期立场充满信心。该公司已将该公司的评级优于“跑赢大盘”，并设定了600美元的目标目标，这将比当前水平增长75％。

Bernstein’s valuation model applies a 50% weighting to the company’s Bitcoin holdings, a 30% weighting to its revenue growth and a 20% weighting to its price-to-book multiple.

伯恩斯坦的估值模型对公司的比特币持有量进行了50％的权重，其收入增长的权重30％，而其价格对书籍的重量增长了20％。

At the beginning of 2023, Strategy’s stock price was around $200, but it has since dropped to $340. As of Friday’s closing price, Strategy’s stock is trading at $331.97.

在2023年初，策略的股价约为200美元，但此后已降至340美元。截至周五的收盘价，策略的股票的交易价格为331.97美元。