策略的積極的比特幣積累策略項目持有量到2033年可能超過100萬BTC。

比特幣的價格波動，尤其是90,000美元大關，受期權市場動態影響。

In the constantly evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, one company stands out for its unwavering commitment to Bitcoin: Strategy.

在不斷發展的加密貨幣景觀中，一家公司因其對比特幣的堅定承諾而脫穎而出。

Formerly recognized as MicroStrategy, the company has become synonymous with an aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, a move that has sparked widespread discussion and analysis among market observers.

該公司以前被公認為是微型流浪者，已成為一種積極的比特幣積累策略的代名詞，此舉引發了市場觀察者之間廣泛的討論和分析。

Now, a new forecast by Bernstein predicts that Strategy’s Bitcoin stash could burgeon past 1 million BTC by 2033. However, this ambitious plan will require substantial capital infusion, and the company’s stock price will largely depend on the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price over the next decade.

現在，伯恩斯坦的一個新預測預測，到2033年，戰略的比特幣藏匿處可能會超過100萬BTC。但是，這個雄心勃勃的計劃將需要大量資本注入，該公司的股價在很大程度上取決於比特幣在未來十年中的價格軌跡。

The Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder is Still Expanding

最大的公司比特幣持有人仍在擴大

At present, Strategy holds 506,137 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Bernstein’s latest forecast suggests that number could more than double, reaching 1,013,000 BTC. That would represent 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply.

目前，戰略持有506,137 BTC，使其成為比特幣的最大公司持有人。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的最新預測表明，數字可能會增加一倍以上，達到1,013,000 BTC。這將佔比特幣當前循環供應的5.8％。

This projection assumes Bitcoin will reach major price milestones in the coming years:

該預測假設比特幣將在未來幾年達到主要價格里程碑：

* Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033.

*到2025年底，比特幣可能達到200,000美元，到2029年為500,000美元，到2033年為100萬美元。

* To reach these price levels, the Bitcoin market cap would need to grow to $3.5 trillion by 2025, $8.5 trillion by 2029, and $16.7 trillion by 2033. For perspective, the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is currently around $1.5 trillion.

*為了達到這些價格水平，到2025年，比特幣市值需要增長到3.5萬億美元，到2029年為8.5萬億美元，到2033年為16.7萬億美元。對於Perspective，所有加密貨幣的總市值目前約為1.5億美元。

* These valuations are not unprecedented for major asset classes. By 2025, Bitcoin’s market cap would be about half the size of U.S. equities and a third of global investment grade bonds.

*這些估值不是主要資產類別的前所未有的。到2025年，比特幣的市值將大約是美國股票的一半，是全球投資級債券的三分之一。

How Will Strategy Fund the Bitcoin Acquisitions?

戰略將如何為比特幣的收購提供資金？

To achieve this level of expansion, Strategy will likely need to raise a significant amount of capital. Analysts predict the company’s debt could climb from $11 billion to $100 billion, while it may also raise $84 billion through equity markets.

為了達到這一水平，戰略可能需要籌集大量資本。分析師預測，該公司的債務可能會從110億美元攀升至1000億美元，而通過股票市場也可能籌集840億美元。

Bernstein’s report suggests that lower interest rates and strong investor demand will be critical to making this strategy work. If interest rates rise faster than expected, or if investors become less interested in Strategy’s stock, it could put a damper on the company’s plans.

伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的報告表明，較低的利率和強勁的投資者需求對於使該策略起作用至關重要。如果利率上升的速度比預期的要快，或者投資者對策略的股票不太感興趣，則可能會使公司的計劃受損。

Bitcoin Market Makers

比特幣做市商

With Bitcoin still trading below $90,000, many analysts see $90,000 as an important level where investor interest could return. Market makers, who influence short-term price movements, are expected to play a key role.

隨著比特幣仍低於90,000美元的交易，許多分析師將90,000美元視為投資者利息可能返回的重要水平。影響短期價格變動的做市商預計將發揮關鍵作用。

Data from Deribit shows that market makers are currently “short gamma” at this price level. This means they will need to buy Bitcoin when its price rises and sell when it falls, which could add to market volatility. Despite this, BloFin’s Griffin Ardern believes a bullish move could be ahead, especially as Friday’s options settlement approaches.

來自Deribit的數據表明，做市商目前在此價格水平上是“短伽瑪”。這意味著，當比特幣價格上漲和銷售時，他們將需要購買，這可能會增加市場波動。儘管如此，布洛芬的格里芬·阿爾登（Griffin Ardern）認為，看漲的舉動可能會遙遙領先，尤其是隨著周五的選擇和解的臨近。

What Happens if Bitcoin Peaks and Declines?

如果比特幣達到峰值和下降，會發生什麼？

Not all analysts believe Bitcoin will continue rising without setbacks. If Bitcoin peaks in 2025 and then enters a long-term decline, Strategy might slow down its Bitcoin purchases. In that case, its holdings may reach only 514,800 BTC, about 2.6% of the total Bitcoin supply.

並非所有分析師都認為，沒有挫折的情況下比特幣將繼續上升。如果比特幣在2025年達到高峰，然後進入長期下降，則策略可能會減慢其比特幣購買的速度。在這種情況下，其持有量可能僅達到514,800 BTC，約佔比特幣供應總額的2.6％。

If the company faces financial pressure, it may even need to sell some of its Bitcoin to manage its debt, which could still rise to around $51 billion, though at a slower pace than in the more optimistic scenario.

如果該公司面臨財務壓力，甚至可能需要出售一些比特幣來管理其債務，儘管比在更樂觀的情況下的速度較慢，但​​仍可能會增加510億美元。

Bernstein Remains Bullish on Strategy

伯恩斯坦仍然看好戰略

Despite the risks, Bernstein remains confident in Strategy’s long-term position. The firm has given the company an “outperform” rating and set a $600 price target, which would be a 75% increase from current levels.

儘管有風險，但伯恩斯坦仍然對戰略的長期立場充滿信心。該公司已將該公司的評級優於“跑贏大盤”，並設定了600美元的目標目標，這將比當前水平增長75％。

Bernstein’s valuation model applies a 50% weighting to the company’s Bitcoin holdings, a 30% weighting to its revenue growth and a 20% weighting to its price-to-book multiple.

伯恩斯坦的估值模型對公司的比特幣持有量進行了50％的權重，其收入增長的權重30％，而其價格對書籍的重量增長了20％。

At the beginning of 2023, Strategy’s stock price was around $200, but it has since dropped to $340. As of Friday’s closing price, Strategy’s stock is trading at $331.97.

在2023年初，策略的股價約為200美元，但此後已降至340美元。截至週五的收盤價，策略的股票的交易價格為331.97美元。