Stockmoney Lizards 分析表明比特币可能出现中期修正

受欢迎的比特币交易商 Stockmoney Lizards 发布了一份公正的分析，表明比特币可能出现中期看跌修正。威科夫分布模式、三重顶形态、动量下降和艾略特波浪预测等因素表明修正性下行。宏观经济因素，包括通胀上升和地缘政治紧张局势，也被认为是造成悲观前景的因素。 Lizards 指出，虽然存在看涨迹象，但分析强调了机构买盘的暂停，并建议目标价为 50,000 美元低位，该位置存在大量流动性。

Bitcoin Faces Potential Mid-Term Correction Despite Bullish Indicators, According to Stockmoney Lizards Analysis

Stockmoney Lizards 分析显示，尽管指标看涨，但比特币仍面临潜在的中期调整

In a comprehensive analysis that has garnered significant attention within the cryptocurrency community, renowned Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trader Stockmoney Lizards has outlined a compelling case for a potential mid-term correction in Bitcoin's price action. This analysis challenges the prevailing bullish sentiment that has dominated the market in recent months, citing technical chart patterns and macroeconomic factors that suggest a downturn may be imminent.

在一项引起加密货币社区广泛关注的综合分析中，著名的比特币（BTC/USD）交易商 Stockmoney Lizards 概述了比特币价格走势可能出现中期调整的令人信服的案例。该分析对近几个月来主导市场的普遍看涨情绪提出了挑战，理由是技术图表模式和宏观经济因素表明经济衰退可能即将来临。

Technical Analysis Points to Wyckoff Distribution Pattern

技术分析指向威科夫分布模式

Lizards' analysis centers around the Wyckoff distribution pattern, a classic technical pattern that typically precedes a significant downward correction. The current Bitcoin chart pattern closely resembles this pattern, suggesting that a decline may be in the cards. This pattern is characterized by a series of highs and lows that form a broadening wedge, indicating that the market is consolidating and indecisive before a decisive move.

Lizards 的分析以威科夫分布模式为中心，这是一种典型的技术模式，通常出现在大幅向下修正之前。当前的比特币图表模式与这种模式非常相似，表明可能会下跌。这种形态的特点是一系列的高点和低点形成一个不断扩大的楔形，表明市场在采取决定性行动之前正在盘整和犹豫不决。

In addition to the Wyckoff distribution pattern, Lizards highlights several other bearish technical indicators, including a triple top pattern, decreasing momentum, and a broken and retested neckline. These indicators further contribute to the mid-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

除了威科夫分布模式外，蜥蜴还强调了其他几个看跌的技术指标，包括三重顶模式、动能下降以及颈线被打破和重新测试。这些指标进一步加剧了比特币的中期看跌前景。

Elliott Wave Theory Predicts Corrective Phase

艾略特波浪理论预测调整阶段

Lizards also incorporates Elliott Wave theory into his analysis, which suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the fourth corrective wave (wave iv) of a larger corrective phase. This theory posits that markets move in predictable waves, and wave iv is typically a corrective retracement before the resumption of the primary trend. Lizards believes that Bitcoin's current price action aligns with this theory and supports the notion of a potential correction.

Lizards 还将艾略特波浪理论纳入他的分析中，该理论表明比特币目前正处于更大修正阶段的第四波修正波（第四波）。该理论认为，市场以可预测的波浪运动，而第四波通常是主要趋势恢复之前的修正回调。 Lizards 认为，比特币当前的价格走势与这一理论相符，并支持潜在修正的概念。

Macroeconomic Factors Contribute to Bearish Outlook

宏观经济因素导致前景看跌

Beyond technical analysis, Lizards' analysis also considers macroeconomic factors that could contribute to a Bitcoin correction. He notes that the latest core retail sale numbers in the United States came in at 1.1%, indicating a rise in inflation. This, coupled with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates, creates fears of further rate hikes among consumers and a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

除了技术分析之外，Lizards 的分析还考虑了可能导致比特币回调的宏观经济因素。他指出，美国最新的核心零售销售数据为 1.1%，表明通胀上升。再加上美联储不愿降低利率，引发了消费者对进一步加息的担忧以及比特币的短期看跌前景。

Additionally, Lizards points to the geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran as a potential catalyst for a market plunge. Historically, such events have marked the bottom of corrections, and if a counterstrike from Israel occurs, it could send markets reeling, further exacerbating the bearish pressure on Bitcoin.

此外，蜥蜴指出以色列和伊朗之间的地缘政治紧张局势是市场暴跌的潜在催化剂。从历史上看，此类事件标志着回调的底部，如果以色列发生反击，可能会导致市场动荡，进一步加剧比特币的看跌压力。

Institutional Buying Pauses, ETF Inflow Stagnates

机构购买暂停，ETF 流入停滞

Lizards' analysis also reveals that large institutions have paused their Bitcoin buying in recent weeks, with ETF inflow at an all-time low. This suggests that these institutions are anticipating difficult times in the market and are adjusting their positions accordingly. Even the recent approval of a Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong could not sustain its peak for long, and a sell-off was seen almost immediately.

Lizards的分析还显示，大型机构最近几周暂停了比特币购买，ETF流入量创历史新低。这表明这些机构预计市场将面临困难时期，并相应调整头寸。即使最近在香港批准的比特币 ETF 也无法长时间维持其峰值，并且几乎立即出现抛售。

Bullish Signs Temper Correction Outlook

看涨迹象调整前景

Despite the bearish indicators outlined in Lizards' analysis, it is important to note that there are clear bullish signs that could mitigate the severity of any correction. For example, Bitcoin has rallied after the first touch of its old peak and also after halving, indicating strong underlying demand. Additionally, the overall macroeconomic environment remains favorable, with a strong global economy and low unemployment.

尽管蜥蜴分析中概述了看跌指标，但值得注意的是，有明显的看涨迹象可以减轻任何调整的严重性。例如，比特币在首次触及旧峰值后以及减半后均出现反弹，表明潜在需求强劲。此外，整体宏观经济环境仍然有利，全球经济强劲，失业率较低。

Potential Target and Outlook

潜在目标和前景

Should a correction occur, Lizards believes that the potential target for Bitcoin could be as low as $50,000, where there is significant liquidity. However, he emphasizes that the bull market is not over, but rather taking a break after a year of sustained upward movement.

Lizards 认为，如果出现调整，比特币的潜在目标可能会低至 50,000 美元，而该地区存在大量流动性。不过，他强调，牛市还没有结束，只是在经历了一年的持续上涨之后暂时休息。

Future of Digital Assets Event to Explore Bitcoin's Institutional Role

数字资产的未来活动探讨比特币的机构作用

In the wake of Lizards' analysis, the upcoming Future of Digital Assets event hosted by Benzinga on November 19 will delve into the growing influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class. This event will bring together industry experts to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing digital assets in a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape.

根据 Lizards 的分析，Benzinga 将于 11 月 19 日主办的数字资产未来活动将深入探讨比特币作为机构资产类别日益增长的影响力。本次活动将汇集行业专家，讨论数字资产在快速发展的监管环境中面临的挑战和机遇。