Stockmoney Lizards 分析顯示比特幣可能出現中期修正

受歡迎的比特幣交易商 Stockmoney Lizards 發布了一份公正的分析，表明比特幣可能會出現中期看跌修正。威科夫分佈模式、三重頂形態、動量下降和艾略特波浪預測等因素顯示修正性下行。宏觀經濟因素，包括通膨上升和地緣政治緊張局勢，也被認為是造成悲觀前景的因素。 Lizards 指出，雖然存在看漲跡象，但分析強調了機構買盤的暫停，並建議目標價為 50,000 美元低位，該位置存在大量流動性。

Bitcoin Faces Potential Mid-Term Correction Despite Bullish Indicators, According to Stockmoney Lizards Analysis

Stockmoney Lizards 分析顯示，儘管指標看漲，但比特幣仍面臨潛在的中期調整

In a comprehensive analysis that has garnered significant attention within the cryptocurrency community, renowned Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trader Stockmoney Lizards has outlined a compelling case for a potential mid-term correction in Bitcoin's price action. This analysis challenges the prevailing bullish sentiment that has dominated the market in recent months, citing technical chart patterns and macroeconomic factors that suggest a downturn may be imminent.

在一項引起加密貨幣社群廣泛關注的綜合分析中，著名的比特幣（BTC/USD）交易商 Stockmoney Lizards 概述了比特幣價格走勢可能出現中期調整的令人信服的案例。該分析對近幾個月來主導市場的普遍看漲情緒提出了挑戰，理由是技術圖表模式和宏觀經濟因素表明經濟衰退可能即將來臨。

Technical Analysis Points to Wyckoff Distribution Pattern

技術分析指向威科夫分佈模式

Lizards' analysis centers around the Wyckoff distribution pattern, a classic technical pattern that typically precedes a significant downward correction. The current Bitcoin chart pattern closely resembles this pattern, suggesting that a decline may be in the cards. This pattern is characterized by a series of highs and lows that form a broadening wedge, indicating that the market is consolidating and indecisive before a decisive move.

Lizards 的分析以威科夫分佈模式為中心，這是一種典型的技術模式，通常出現在大幅向下修正之前。目前的比特幣圖表模式與這種模式非常相似，表明可能會下跌。這種形態的特徵是一系列的高點和低點形成一個不斷擴大的楔形，表明市場在採取決定性行動之前正在盤整和猶豫不決。

In addition to the Wyckoff distribution pattern, Lizards highlights several other bearish technical indicators, including a triple top pattern, decreasing momentum, and a broken and retested neckline. These indicators further contribute to the mid-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

除了威科夫分佈模式外，蜥蜴還強調了其他幾個看跌的技術指標，包括三重頂模式、動能下降以及頸線被打破和重新測試。這些指標進一步加劇了比特幣的中期看跌前景。

Elliott Wave Theory Predicts Corrective Phase

艾略特波浪理論預測調整階段

Lizards also incorporates Elliott Wave theory into his analysis, which suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the fourth corrective wave (wave iv) of a larger corrective phase. This theory posits that markets move in predictable waves, and wave iv is typically a corrective retracement before the resumption of the primary trend. Lizards believes that Bitcoin's current price action aligns with this theory and supports the notion of a potential correction.

Lizards 也將艾略特波浪理論納入他的分析中，該理論表明比特幣目前正處於更大修正階段的第四波修正波（第四波）。該理論認為，市場以可預測的波浪運動，而第四波通常是主要趨勢恢復之前的修正回調。 Lizards 認為，比特幣目前的價格走勢與這個理論相符，並支持潛在修正的概念。

Macroeconomic Factors Contribute to Bearish Outlook

宏觀經濟因素導致前景看跌

Beyond technical analysis, Lizards' analysis also considers macroeconomic factors that could contribute to a Bitcoin correction. He notes that the latest core retail sale numbers in the United States came in at 1.1%, indicating a rise in inflation. This, coupled with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates, creates fears of further rate hikes among consumers and a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

除了技術分析之外，Lizards 的分析還考慮了可能導致比特幣回檔的宏觀經濟因素。他指出，美國最新的核心零售銷售數據為 1.1%，顯示通膨上升。再加上聯準會不願降低利率，引發了消費者對進一步升息的擔憂以及比特幣的短期看跌前景。

Additionally, Lizards points to the geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran as a potential catalyst for a market plunge. Historically, such events have marked the bottom of corrections, and if a counterstrike from Israel occurs, it could send markets reeling, further exacerbating the bearish pressure on Bitcoin.

此外，蜥蜴指出以色列和伊朗之間的地緣政治緊張局勢是市場暴跌的潛在催化劑。從歷史上看，此類事件標誌著回檔的底部，如果以色列發生反擊，可能會導致市場動盪，進一步加劇比特幣的看跌壓力。

Institutional Buying Pauses, ETF Inflow Stagnates

機構購買暫停，ETF 流入停滯

Lizards' analysis also reveals that large institutions have paused their Bitcoin buying in recent weeks, with ETF inflow at an all-time low. This suggests that these institutions are anticipating difficult times in the market and are adjusting their positions accordingly. Even the recent approval of a Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong could not sustain its peak for long, and a sell-off was seen almost immediately.

Lizards的分析也顯示，大型機構最近幾週暫停了比特幣購買，ETF流入量創歷史新低。這表明這些機構預計市場將面臨困難時期，並相應調整頭寸。即使最近在香港批准的比特幣 ETF 也無法長時間維持其峰值，並且幾乎立即出現拋售。

Bullish Signs Temper Correction Outlook

看漲跡象調整前景

Despite the bearish indicators outlined in Lizards' analysis, it is important to note that there are clear bullish signs that could mitigate the severity of any correction. For example, Bitcoin has rallied after the first touch of its old peak and also after halving, indicating strong underlying demand. Additionally, the overall macroeconomic environment remains favorable, with a strong global economy and low unemployment.

儘管蜥蜴分析中概述了看跌指標，但值得注意的是，有明顯的看漲跡象可以減輕任何調整的嚴重性。例如，比特幣在首次觸及舊高峰後以及減半後均出現反彈，顯示潛在需求強勁。此外，整體宏觀經濟環境仍有利，全球經濟強勁，失業率較低。

Potential Target and Outlook

潛在目標和前景

Should a correction occur, Lizards believes that the potential target for Bitcoin could be as low as $50,000, where there is significant liquidity. However, he emphasizes that the bull market is not over, but rather taking a break after a year of sustained upward movement.

Lizards 認為，如果出現調整，比特幣的潛在目標可能會低至 5 萬美元，而該地區存在大量流動性。不過，他強調，多頭市場還沒結束，只是在經歷了一年的持續上漲後暫時休息。

Future of Digital Assets Event to Explore Bitcoin's Institutional Role

數位資產的未來活動探討比特幣的機構作用

In the wake of Lizards' analysis, the upcoming Future of Digital Assets event hosted by Benzinga on November 19 will delve into the growing influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class. This event will bring together industry experts to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing digital assets in a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape.

根據 Lizards 的分析，Benzinga 將於 11 月 19 日主辦的數位資產未來活動將深入探討比特幣作為機構資產類別日益增長的影響力。本次活動將匯集產業專家，討論數位資產在快速發展的監管環境中面臨的挑戰和機會。