标准特许数字资产研究负责人研究杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）认为比特币（BTC）最近的价格行动表明，旗舰加密货币可能需要主权积累或改善地缘政治清晰度，以推动当前风险的市场情绪中的较高的地位。

本周比特币（BTC）崩溃使价格水平接近其交易范围，即2024年11月6日，即美国总统大选后的第二天。

Standard Chartered head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick believes that Bitcoin (BTC) may need either sovereign accumulation or better geopolitical clarity to push higher from here.

标准特许数字资产研究负责人Geoffrey Kendrick认为，比特币（BTC）可能需要主权积累或更好的地缘政治清晰度才能从这里提高。

This comes amid the current risk-off market sentiment, sparked by macroeconomic concerns.

这是由于宏观经济问题引发的当前风险市场情绪。

In a March 11 research note shared with CryptoSlate, Kendrick highlighted that Bitcoin’s crash this week has brought price levels close to its trading range on Nov. 6, 2024, the day after the US presidential election.

在3月11日的研究报告与加密皮板分享的一份研究报告中，肯德里克强调说，本周比特币的撞车事故使价格水平接近其交易范围，即2024年11月6日，即美国总统大选后的第二天。

BTC hit a four-month low of $76,500 on Friday before attempting a recovery above $80,000, while its 30-day implied volatility is still high at around 55%.

BTC在周五的售价超过80,000美元之前，在周五的76,500美元中达到了76,500美元，而其30天的隐含波动率仍然很高，约为55％。

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has been falling in tandem with major US tech stocks as risk assets continue to struggle against macroeconomic concerns.

肯德里克（Kendrick）指出，随着风险资产继续与宏观经济问题作斗争，比特币一直与美国主要的科技股一起汇聚。

He compared Bitcoin’s recent performance to that of the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech stocks, which include Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Amazon. These stocks have also seen heavy sell-offs amid market uncertainty.

他将比特币最近的表现与所谓的“ Magnificent 7”科技股进行了比较，其中包括Apple，Microsoft，Nvidia，Alphabet，Meta，Tesla和Amazon。这些股票在市场不确定性的情况下也看到了大量抛售。

Since the inauguration of the current US administration, Bitcoin has been tracking these stocks on a volatility-adjusted basis, reinforcing the argument that broader risk asset sentiment is a key driver of price movements.

自当前美国政府的就职典礼以来，比特币一直以波动率调整的基础跟踪这些股票，这加强了这样一种论点，即更广泛的风险资产情绪是价格变动的关键驱动力。

Tesla, Meta, and Apple have been the closest equity counterparts to Bitcoin in terms of adjusted performance, he noted. The data suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is more reflective of widespread risk-off sentiment rather than asset-specific challenges.

他指出，在调整后的性能方面，特斯拉，元和苹果一直是比特币的最接近比特币的股权。数据表明，比特币的价格行动更反映了广泛的风险情绪，而不是特定资产的挑战。

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin continues to face further downside risk in the short term due to macro uncertainties and needs a major catalyst to resume its uptrend.

肯德里克（Kendrick）指出，由于宏观不确定性，比特币在短期内继续面临进一步的下行风险，并且需要主要的催化剂才能恢复其上升趋势。

“The question now is which comes first: a recovery in risk assets or positive Bitcoin-specific news, such as sovereign buying from the US or other nations.”

“现在的问题是首先出现的：风险资产或特定比特币的积极新闻，例如从美国或其他国家购买的主权购买。”

The prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts remains crucial. A faster-than-expected shift in policy, potentially at the Fed’s May meeting, could help stabilize risk markets.

降低美联储的前景仍然至关重要。政策上的更快的转变可能会在美联储5月的会议上有助于稳定风险市场。

Current market expectations for a May rate cut have risen from 50% to 75%, increasing the likelihood of a policy shift that could benefit Bitcoin.

目前对5月降低的市场期望已从50％上升到75％，增加了可能使比特币受益的政策转变的可能性。

In the near term, Kendrick said Bitcoin could fall below the Nov. 6 price range, indicating the potential for further downside. However, he reaffirmed his long-term bullish stance, maintaining his previous target of $200,000 by 2025 and $250,000 by 2026.

肯德里克（Kendrick）在短期内说，比特币可能低于11月6日的价格范围，这表明有可能进一步偏低。但是，他重申了自己的长期看涨立场，到2025年之前的目标为200,000美元，到2026年保持了25万美元。

He argued that recent volatility reinforces the case for future Fed rate cuts, which could serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin.

他认为，最近的波动性加强了未来美联储降低税率的案件，这可以作为比特币的逆风。

Kendrick advised investors to “stay nimble” and reaffirmed his broader thesis that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains intact despite near-term turbulence.

肯德里克（Kendrick）建议投资者“保持敏捷”，并重申了他更广泛的论文，即尽管近期动荡，比特币的长期轨迹仍然完好无损。