標準特許數字資產研究負責人研究杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）認為比特幣（BTC）最近的價格行動表明，旗艦加密貨幣可能需要主權積累或改善地緣政治清晰度，以推動當前風險的市場情緒中的較高的地位。

本週比特幣（BTC）崩潰使價格水平接近其交易範圍，即2024年11月6日，即美國總統大選後的第二天。

Standard Chartered head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick believes that Bitcoin (BTC) may need either sovereign accumulation or better geopolitical clarity to push higher from here.

標準特許數字資產研究負責人Geoffrey Kendrick認為，比特幣（BTC）可能需要主權積累或更好的地緣政治清晰度才能從這裡提高。

This comes amid the current risk-off market sentiment, sparked by macroeconomic concerns.

這是由於宏觀經濟問題引發的當前風險市場情緒。

In a March 11 research note shared with CryptoSlate, Kendrick highlighted that Bitcoin’s crash this week has brought price levels close to its trading range on Nov. 6, 2024, the day after the US presidential election.

在3月11日的研究報告與加密皮板分享的一份研究報告中，肯德里克強調說，本週比特幣的撞車事故使價格水平接近其交易範圍，即2024年11月6日，即美國總統大選後的第二天。

BTC hit a four-month low of $76,500 on Friday before attempting a recovery above $80,000, while its 30-day implied volatility is still high at around 55%.

BTC在周五的售價超過80,000美元之前，在周五的76,500美元中達到了76,500美元，而其30天的隱含波動率仍然很高，約為55％。

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has been falling in tandem with major US tech stocks as risk assets continue to struggle against macroeconomic concerns.

肯德里克（Kendrick）指出，隨著風險資產繼續與宏觀經濟問題作鬥爭，比特幣一直與美國主要的科技股一起匯聚。

He compared Bitcoin’s recent performance to that of the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech stocks, which include Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Amazon. These stocks have also seen heavy sell-offs amid market uncertainty.

他將比特幣最近的表現與所謂的“ Magnificent 7”科技股進行了比較，其中包括Apple，Microsoft，Nvidia，Alphabet，Meta，Tesla和Amazon。這些股票在市場不確定性的情況下也看到了大量拋售。

Since the inauguration of the current US administration, Bitcoin has been tracking these stocks on a volatility-adjusted basis, reinforcing the argument that broader risk asset sentiment is a key driver of price movements.

自當前美國政府的就職典禮以來，比特幣一直以波動率調整的基礎跟踪這些股票，這加強了這樣一種論點，即更廣泛的風險資產情緒是價格變動的關鍵驅動力。

Tesla, Meta, and Apple have been the closest equity counterparts to Bitcoin in terms of adjusted performance, he noted. The data suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is more reflective of widespread risk-off sentiment rather than asset-specific challenges.

他指出，在調整後的性能方面，特斯拉，元和蘋果一直是比特幣的最接近比特幣的股權。數據表明，比特幣的價格行動更反映了廣泛的風險情緒，而不是特定資產的挑戰。

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin continues to face further downside risk in the short term due to macro uncertainties and needs a major catalyst to resume its uptrend.

肯德里克（Kendrick）指出，由於宏觀不確定性，比特幣在短期內繼續面臨進一步的下行風險，並且需要主要的催化劑才能恢復其上升趨勢。

“The question now is which comes first: a recovery in risk assets or positive Bitcoin-specific news, such as sovereign buying from the US or other nations.”

“現在的問題是首先出現的：風險資產或特定比特幣的積極新聞，例如從美國或其他國家購買的主權購買。”

The prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts remains crucial. A faster-than-expected shift in policy, potentially at the Fed’s May meeting, could help stabilize risk markets.

降低美聯儲的前景仍然至關重要。政策上的更快的轉變可能會在美聯儲5月的會議上有助於穩定風險市場。

Current market expectations for a May rate cut have risen from 50% to 75%, increasing the likelihood of a policy shift that could benefit Bitcoin.

目前對5月降低的市場期望已從50％上升到75％，增加了可能使比特幣受益的政策轉變的可能性。

In the near term, Kendrick said Bitcoin could fall below the Nov. 6 price range, indicating the potential for further downside. However, he reaffirmed his long-term bullish stance, maintaining his previous target of $200,000 by 2025 and $250,000 by 2026.

肯德里克（Kendrick）在短期內說，比特幣可能低於11月6日的價格範圍，這表明有可能進一步偏低。但是，他重申了自己的長期看漲立場，到2025年之前的目標為200,000美元，到2026年保持了25萬美元。

He argued that recent volatility reinforces the case for future Fed rate cuts, which could serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin.

他認為，最近的波動性加強了未來美聯儲降低稅率的案件，這可以作為比特幣的逆風。

Kendrick advised investors to “stay nimble” and reaffirmed his broader thesis that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains intact despite near-term turbulence.

肯德里克（Kendrick）建議投資者“保持敏捷”，並重申了他更廣泛的論文，即儘管近期動盪，比特幣的長期軌跡仍然完好無損。