春江水暖，寒意凛冽：鲍威尔的比特币表态，给传闻中的100万比特币战略储备计划带来打击

美联储降息25个基点在众多机构和散户确认时已成定局。

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points was already a foregone conclusion for many institutions and retail investors at the time of confirmation. However, the positive effects of the rate cut did not bring about upward momentum; this momentum had already been consumed in advance.

美联储降息25个基点在众多机构和散户确认时已成定局。但降息的积极效应并没有带来上涨动力；这股势头，早已经被消耗掉了。

To make matters worse, Chairman Powell closed the door to public advice regarding future rate cuts at the meeting, stating that they will wait to observe inflation data based on the specific implementation results of Trump's new policies before responding, which means that subsequent rate cuts in the short term are likely to be minimal and infrequent.

更糟糕的是，鲍威尔主席在会议上关闭了公众对未来降息建议的大门，表示将等待根据特朗普新政策的具体实施结果观察通胀数据后再做出回应，这意味着后续降息短期内可能是最小的且罕见的。

Is the spring river warm or cold? Powell knows!

春天的河水是暖的还是冷的？鲍威尔知道！

Powell stated that the overall performance of the U.S. economy appears strong and has made significant progress toward the Federal Reserve's goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its previously overheated state but remains robust. Inflation levels are now closer to the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. He also mentioned that even if next year's inflation rate only drops to 2.5%, the Federal Reserve may still cut rates next year as indicated by the dot plot, because inflation is moving in the right direction.

鲍威尔表示，美国经济整体表现强劲，过去两年在实现美联储目标方面取得了重大进展。劳动力市场已从之前的过热状态降温，但仍保持强劲。目前通胀水平已接近美联储2%的长期目标。他还提到，即使明年的通胀率仅下降至2.5%，如点图所示，美联储明年仍可能降息，因为通胀正在朝着正确的方向发展。

However, what hurts crypto even more is Powell's statement at the meeting that the Federal Reserve is not allowed to hold Bitcoin and has no plans to accumulate Bitcoin, which has dealt a negative blow to the previously rumored plan for a strategic reserve of 1 million Bitcoins.

然而，更伤害加密货币的是鲍威尔在会议上表示美联储不允许持有比特币，也没有计划积累比特币，这对之前传闻的100万比特币战略储备计划造成了负面打击。

Is Powell's statement unfounded, or is this not his responsibility?

鲍威尔的说法是否毫无根据，或者这不是他的责任？

Firstly, this 1 million Bitcoin reserve plan was not proposed by Trump, but rather by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming. This proposal seems to cater to Trump's vision of a super Bitcoin kingdom and serves as a political statement. The specific operation involves selling the Federal Reserve's gold to buy 1 million Bitcoins over five years, using the appreciation of Bitcoin to hedge against U.S. Treasury bonds.

首先，这个100万比特币储备计划并不是特朗普提出的，而是来自怀俄明州的共和党参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯(Cynthia Lummis)提出的。这一提议似乎迎合了特朗普超级比特币王国的愿景，并起到了政治声明的作用。具体操作包括在五年内出售美联储黄金购买100万枚比特币，利用比特币升值对冲美国国债。

How much gold does the Federal Reserve have? According to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, it lists certificates representing gold held by the Treasury, valued at approximately $11 billion. Based on current spot prices, this batch of gold is worth about $675 billion. Taking away 1/6 to please the Bitcoin president would leave other expenditures without a safety net, potentially undermining the international credibility of the dollar and U.S. debt. Powell is already sleepless over the lack of resources for economic growth, and expecting him to draw blood for Bitcoin, a competitor to gold, is even more challenging. Even if Trump insists on this matter and wants to legislate a Bitcoin strategic reserve act, it should be implemented by the Treasury, not the Federal Reserve.

美联储有多少黄金？根据美联储的资产负债表，它列出了代表财政部持有的黄金的凭证，价值约为110亿美元。按目前现货价格计算，这批黄金价值约6750亿美元。为了取悦比特币总统而拿走 1/6 将使其他支出失去安全网，可能会损害美元和美国债务的国际信誉。鲍威尔已经因经济增长资源匮乏而寝食难安，指望他为黄金竞争对手比特币抽血，更是充满挑战。即使特朗普坚持此事并希望立法比特币战略储备法案，也应该由财政部而不是美联储来实施。

Everyone knows the state of U.S. finances; even the landlord's family has no surplus grain. The government budget deficit for 2024 alone is projected to reach $1.833 trillion, which is $133 billion more than the previous year. This amount is just enough to buy 1 million Bitcoins, but the problem is that this is debt, not profit. Even if they tighten their belts, they can't squeeze out any more oil; are they supposed to rob?

美国的财政状况大家都知道；就连地主家也没有多余的粮食。仅2024年的政府预算赤字预计将达到1.833万亿美元，比上一年增加1330亿美元。这个数额刚好够购买100万个比特币，但问题是这是债务，而不是利润。即使他们勒紧裤腰带，也榨不出更多的油；他们应该抢劫吗？

To be honest, while they can still move, it's necessary to occasionally showcase old skills. The more than 200,000 Bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government were obtained through fines, collateral, and money laundering seizures, such as the 95,000 Bitcoins seized from the exchange Bitfinex when both hackers were imprisoned, as well as 69,000 Bitcoins from the founder of the Silk Road drug market and 50,676 Bitcoins stolen by a subordinate. These are stored in hardware wallets controlled by the Department of Justice, the IRS, or other agencies. Occasionally, some department may sell a small amount to alleviate financial difficulties, but most remain in cold storage. The additional profits without investment align well with the Western notion of "legal justice" and easily stimulate the Anglo-Saxon penchant for entrapment, using regulatory and litigation penalties to achieve crypto wealth, especially since the bull market has brought an increase in wealth-related lawsuits and active hacking activities. The "correctness" of law enforcement is hard to guarantee for every crypto victim; more often, assets are frozen or surrendered pending judgment, and without a reasonable and legal source of income, it's unfortunate. National security always has a label to pin on you.

说实话，虽然还能动，但偶尔展现一下老本领还是有必要的。美国政府目前持有的超过20万枚比特币是通过罚款、抵押品和洗钱查封等方式获得的，比如两名黑客入狱时从交易所Bitfinex查获的9.5万枚比特币，以及Silk创始人的6.9万枚比特币道路毒品市场和一名下属窃取了 50,676 个比特币。这些存储在由司法部、国税局或其他机构控制的硬件钱包中。偶尔，一些部门可能会出售少量以缓解财务困难，但大多数仍处于冷藏状态。无需投资的额外利润与西方的“法律正义”理念非常契合，很容易刺激盎格鲁撒克逊人的陷阱倾向，利用监管和诉讼处罚来实现加密财富，尤其是牛市带来了与财富相关的增加。诉讼和活跃的黑客活动。执法的“正确性”很难保证每一个加密受害者；更多的情况是，资产被冻结或交出等待判决，而没有合理合法的收入来源，这是不幸的。国家安全总是给你贴上一个标签。

Thus, during a bull market, incidents of hackers fleeing and explosions are often heard, but more wealth-generating opportunities can easily lead to a 7-second memory. It can't possibly happen to me, right? Short-term users who gamble on fate and opportunities are often the source of the chaff. The benefits of Trump's economy have gradually narrowed, and crypto is not a priority of the new policies; when favorable

因此，在牛市期间，经常会听到黑客出逃、爆炸事件，但更多的创富机会却很容易引发7秒记忆。这不可能发生在我身上吧？赌命运和机会的短期用户往往是糠秕之源。特朗普经济的惠益逐渐收窄，加密货币不再是新政策的优先考虑；当有利的时候