春江水暖，寒意凜冽：鮑威爾的比特幣表態，為傳聞中的100萬比特幣戰略儲備計畫帶來打擊

聯準會降息25個基點在眾多機構及散戶確認時已成定局。

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points was already a foregone conclusion for many institutions and retail investors at the time of confirmation. However, the positive effects of the rate cut did not bring about upward momentum; this momentum had already been consumed in advance.

聯準會降息25個基點在眾多機構及散戶確認時已成定局。但降息的正面效應並沒有帶來上漲動力；這股勢頭，早已經被消耗掉了。

To make matters worse, Chairman Powell closed the door to public advice regarding future rate cuts at the meeting, stating that they will wait to observe inflation data based on the specific implementation results of Trump's new policies before responding, which means that subsequent rate cuts in the short term are likely to be minimal and infrequent.

更糟的是，鮑威爾主席在會議上關閉了公眾對未來降息建議的大門，表示將等待根據川普新政策的具體實施結果觀察通膨數據後再做出回應，這意味著後續降息將在短期內可能是最小的且不頻繁的。

Is the spring river warm or cold? Powell knows!

春天的河水是暖的還是冷的？鮑威爾知道！

Powell stated that the overall performance of the U.S. economy appears strong and has made significant progress toward the Federal Reserve's goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its previously overheated state but remains robust. Inflation levels are now closer to the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. He also mentioned that even if next year's inflation rate only drops to 2.5%, the Federal Reserve may still cut rates next year as indicated by the dot plot, because inflation is moving in the right direction.

鮑威爾表示，美國經濟整體表現強勁，過去兩年在實現聯準會目標方面取得了重大進展。勞動力市場已從先前的過熱狀態降溫，但仍保持強勁。目前通膨水準已接近聯準會2%的長期目標。他也提到，即使明年的通膨率僅下降至2.5%，如點圖所示，聯準會明年仍可能降息，因為通膨正在朝著正確的方向發展。

However, what hurts crypto even more is Powell's statement at the meeting that the Federal Reserve is not allowed to hold Bitcoin and has no plans to accumulate Bitcoin, which has dealt a negative blow to the previously rumored plan for a strategic reserve of 1 million Bitcoins.

然而，更傷害加密貨幣的是鮑威爾在會議上表示聯準會不允許持有比特幣，也沒有計劃累積比特幣，這對先前傳聞的100萬比特幣戰略儲備計畫造成了負面打擊。

Is Powell's statement unfounded, or is this not his responsibility?

鮑威爾的說法是否毫無根據，或者這不是他的責任？

Firstly, this 1 million Bitcoin reserve plan was not proposed by Trump, but rather by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming. This proposal seems to cater to Trump's vision of a super Bitcoin kingdom and serves as a political statement. The specific operation involves selling the Federal Reserve's gold to buy 1 million Bitcoins over five years, using the appreciation of Bitcoin to hedge against U.S. Treasury bonds.

首先，這個100萬比特幣儲備計畫並不是川普提出的，而是來自懷俄明州的共和黨參議員辛西婭·魯米斯(Cynthia Lummis)提出的。這項提議似乎迎合了川普超級比特幣王國的願景，並起到了政治聲明的作用。具體操作是在五年內出售聯準會黃金購買100萬枚比特幣，利用比特幣升值對沖美國公債。

How much gold does the Federal Reserve have? According to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, it lists certificates representing gold held by the Treasury, valued at approximately $11 billion. Based on current spot prices, this batch of gold is worth about $675 billion. Taking away 1/6 to please the Bitcoin president would leave other expenditures without a safety net, potentially undermining the international credibility of the dollar and U.S. debt. Powell is already sleepless over the lack of resources for economic growth, and expecting him to draw blood for Bitcoin, a competitor to gold, is even more challenging. Even if Trump insists on this matter and wants to legislate a Bitcoin strategic reserve act, it should be implemented by the Treasury, not the Federal Reserve.

聯準會有多少黃金？根據聯準會的資產負債表，它列出了代表財政部持有的黃金的憑證，價值約110億美元。以目前現貨價格計算，這批黃金價值約6,750億美元。為了取悅比特幣總統而拿走 1/6 將使其他支出失去安全網，可能會損害美元和美國債務的國際信譽。鮑威爾已經因為經濟成長資源匱乏而寢食難安，指望他為黃金競爭對手比特幣抽血，更是充滿挑戰。即使川普堅持此事並希望立法比特幣戰略儲備法案，也應該由財政部而不是聯準會來實施。

Everyone knows the state of U.S. finances; even the landlord's family has no surplus grain. The government budget deficit for 2024 alone is projected to reach $1.833 trillion, which is $133 billion more than the previous year. This amount is just enough to buy 1 million Bitcoins, but the problem is that this is debt, not profit. Even if they tighten their belts, they can't squeeze out any more oil; are they supposed to rob?

美國的財政狀況大家都知道；就連地主家也沒有多餘的糧食。光是2024年的政府預算赤字預計將達到1.833兆美元，比前一年增加1,330億美元。這個金額剛好夠買100萬個比特幣，但問題是這是債務，不是利潤。即使他們勒緊褲帶，也榨不出更多的油；他們應該搶劫嗎？

To be honest, while they can still move, it's necessary to occasionally showcase old skills. The more than 200,000 Bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government were obtained through fines, collateral, and money laundering seizures, such as the 95,000 Bitcoins seized from the exchange Bitfinex when both hackers were imprisoned, as well as 69,000 Bitcoins from the founder of the Silk Road drug market and 50,676 Bitcoins stolen by a subordinate. These are stored in hardware wallets controlled by the Department of Justice, the IRS, or other agencies. Occasionally, some department may sell a small amount to alleviate financial difficulties, but most remain in cold storage. The additional profits without investment align well with the Western notion of "legal justice" and easily stimulate the Anglo-Saxon penchant for entrapment, using regulatory and litigation penalties to achieve crypto wealth, especially since the bull market has brought an increase in wealth-related lawsuits and active hacking activities. The "correctness" of law enforcement is hard to guarantee for every crypto victim; more often, assets are frozen or surrendered pending judgment, and without a reasonable and legal source of income, it's unfortunate. National security always has a label to pin on you.

說實話，雖然還能動，但偶爾展現一下老本領還是有必要的。美國政府目前持有的超過20萬枚比特幣是透過罰款、抵押品和洗錢查封等方式獲得的，例如兩名駭客入獄時從交易所Bitfinex查獲的9.5萬枚比特幣，以及Silk創始人的6.9萬枚比特幣道路毒品市場和一名下屬竊取了 50,676 個比特幣。這些儲存在由司法部、國稅局或其他機構控制的硬體錢包中。偶爾，一些部門可能會出售少量以緩解財務困難，但大多數仍處於冷藏狀態。無需投資的額外利潤與西方的「法律正義」理念非常契合，很容易刺激盎格魯撒克遜人的陷阱傾向，利用監管和訴訟處罰來實現加密財富，尤其是牛市帶來了與財富相關的增加。活躍的黑客活動。執法的「正確性」很難保證每一個加密受害者；更多的情況是，資產被凍結或交出等待判決，而沒有合理合法的收入來源，這是不幸的。國家安全總是給你一個標籤。

Thus, during a bull market, incidents of hackers fleeing and explosions are often heard, but more wealth-generating opportunities can easily lead to a 7-second memory. It can't possibly happen to me, right? Short-term users who gamble on fate and opportunities are often the source of the chaff. The benefits of Trump's economy have gradually narrowed, and crypto is not a priority of the new policies; when favorable

因此，在多頭市場期間，常會聽到駭客出逃、爆炸事件，但更多的創富機會卻很容易引發7秒記憶。這不可能發生在我身上吧？賭命運和機會的短期使用者往往是糠秕之源。川普經濟的惠益逐漸收窄，加密貨幣不再是新政策的優先考量；當有利的時候