Solana (SOL) 价格预测：据 Bitwise 称，到 2030 年牛市目标为 6,636 美元

加密指数基金管理公司 Bitwise 最近的一份报告概述了基于 Solana (SOL) 采用率和可扩展性改进的不同价格预测。

A recent report by crypto index fund management firm outlines varying price projections for Solana (SOL) based on its adoption and scalability improvements. According to the report, the ‘bull case’ scenario could see SOL’s price soar to $6,636 by 2030.

加密货币指数基金管理公司最近的一份报告概述了基于 Solana (SOL) 采用率和可扩展性改进的不同价格预测。根据该报告，在“牛市”情景下，到 2030 年 SOL 的价格可能会飙升至 6,636 美元。

Solana, currently the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a volatile few years. The digital asset was heavily impacted by the FTX collapse, plummeting from its previous all-time high (ATH) of $250 in November 2021 to a low of $9 in November 2022.

Solana 目前是市值第六大加密货币，经历了几年的波动。该数字资产受到 FTX 崩盘的严重影响，从 2021 年 11 月的历史高点 (ATH) 暴跌至 2022 年 11 月的 9 美元低点。

However, despite the bear market triggered by the FTX debacle, SOL staged an impressive recovery, achieving a new ATH of $263 in November 2024. Bitwise’s report suggests that SOL’s growth potential remains significant in the coming years.

然而，尽管 FTX 崩溃引发了熊市，SOL 仍实现了令人印象深刻的复苏，在 2024 年 11 月达到了 263 美元的新 ATH。Bitwise 的报告表明，SOL 在未来几年的增长潜力仍然巨大。

The report identifies three core pillars supporting Solana’s investment case: sustainable economics, developer attraction, and consistent execution. It highlights Solana’s remarkable outperformance compared to other major smart contract platforms in terms of price growth in 2024.

该报告确定了支持 Solana 投资案例的三个核心支柱：可持续经济、开发商吸引力和一致执行。它突显了 Solana 与其他主要智能合约平台相比，在 2024 年的价格增长方面表现出色。

Dubbed the “iPhone moment for blockchain” by the report, Solana's standout features include its ability to process 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) and its low transaction costs. This high throughput positions it as an ideal platform for building decentralized, high-volume, low-latency applications, such as decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

Solana 被报告称为“区块链的 iPhone 时刻”，其突出特点包括每秒处理 65,000 笔交易 (TPS) 的能力以及较低的交易成本。这种高吞吐量使其成为构建去中心化、大容量、低延迟应用程序（例如去中心化交易所（DEX））的理想平台。

The chart below demonstrates that Solana’s TPS rivals that of Visa and far surpasses competing smart contract platforms like BNB Chain and Ethereum. Additionally, Solana experienced a parabolic increase in daily active addresses (DAA) in 2024, surpassing the combined DAA of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), indicating growing adoption.

下图显示，Solana 的 TPS 可以与 Visa 相媲美，并远远超过 BNB Chain 和以太坊等竞争智能合约平台。此外，Solana 的每日活跃地址 (DAA) 数量在 2024 年呈抛物线式增长，超过了比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 的 DAA 总和，表明其采用率不断增长。

In terms of tokenomics, the report notes that 80.7% of SOL’s total supply is currently in circulation, with the remaining 19.3% classified as non-circulating supply. While concerns about potential token inflation persist, Solana’s inflation rate decreases annually and is projected to drop to 1.85% by 2030.

在代币经济学方面，报告指出，SOL 总供应量的 80.7% 目前处于流通状态，其余 19.3% 被归类为非流通供应量。尽管对潜在代币通胀的担忧持续存在，但 Solana 的通胀率逐年下降，预计到 2030 年将降至 1.85%。

The SOL Bull Case

SOL 牛市案例

The report applies Metcalfe’s Law to estimate Solana’s network value. According to Metcalfe’s Law, a network's utility increases proportionally to the square of its user base.

该报告应用梅特卡夫定律来估算 Solana 的网络价值。根据梅特卡夫定律，网络的效用与其用户群的平方成正比。

For the sake of simplicity, the report assumes the Daily Active Addresses (DAA) to be the number of users and the market capitalization to represent the utility of the network represented in monetary terms.

为了简单起见，该报告假设每日活跃地址（DAA）是用户数量和市值，以货币形式表示网络的效用。

Based on this assumption, the report derives the following equation to estimate Solana’s network value.

基于这一假设，报告推导出以下方程来估算 Solana 的网络价值。

Solana Network Value = Daily Active Addresses * SOL Price * 0.807

Solana 网络价值 = 每日活跃地址 * SOL 价格 * 0.807

This equation takes into account the fact that only 80.7% of SOL’s total supply is in circulation. Using this formula, the report calculates the bear case, the base case, and the bull case for Solana.

该方程考虑了 SOL 总供应量中只有 80.7% 处于流通状态的事实。使用此公式，报告计算 Solana 的熊市情况、基本情况和牛市情况。

The bear case for SOL foresees a cumulative annual growth rate of 35.1%, yielding a target price of $2,318 by 2030. Similarly, the base case assumes a CAGR of 47.2%, resulting in a price of $4,025 by 2030. On the contrary, the bull case for SOL projects a price target of $6,636 by 2030, driven by a CAGR of 59.1%.

SOL 的熊市假设预计累计年增长率为 35.1%，到 2030 年目标价格为 2,318 美元。同样，基本假设假设复合年增长率为 47.2%，到 2030 年价格为 4,025 美元。相反， SOL 预计到 2030 年，目标价格将达到 6,636 美元，复合年增长率为 59.1%。

The report adds that the aforementioned forecasts consider the natural deceleration that occurs as networks mature and achieve significant scale. At press time, SOL trades at $214.86, up 8% in the past 24 hours.

该报告补充说，上述预测考虑了随着网络成熟并达到显着规模而发生的自然减速。截至发稿，SOL 交易价格为 214.86 美元，过去 24 小时内上涨 8%。