Solana (SOL) 價格預測：根據 Bitwise，到 2030 年牛市目標為 6,636 美元

加密指數基金管理公司 Bitwise 最近的一份報告概述了基於 Solana (SOL) 採用率和可擴展性改進的不同價格預測。

A recent report by crypto index fund management firm outlines varying price projections for Solana (SOL) based on its adoption and scalability improvements. According to the report, the ‘bull case’ scenario could see SOL’s price soar to $6,636 by 2030.

加密貨幣指數基金管理公司最近的一份報告概述了基於 Solana (SOL) 採用率和可擴展性改進的不同價格預測。根據該報告，在「多頭」情景下，到 2030 年 SOL 的價格可能會飆升至 6,636 美元。

Solana, currently the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a volatile few years. The digital asset was heavily impacted by the FTX collapse, plummeting from its previous all-time high (ATH) of $250 in November 2021 to a low of $9 in November 2022.

Solana 目前是市值第六大加密貨幣，經歷了幾年的波動。該數位資產受到 FTX 崩盤的嚴重影響，從 2021 年 11 月的歷史高點 (ATH) 暴跌至 2022 年 11 月的 9 美元低點。

However, despite the bear market triggered by the FTX debacle, SOL staged an impressive recovery, achieving a new ATH of $263 in November 2024. Bitwise’s report suggests that SOL’s growth potential remains significant in the coming years.

然而，儘管 FTX 崩潰引發了熊市，SOL 仍實現了令人印象深刻的復甦，在 2024 年 11 月達到了 263 美元的新 ATH。

The report identifies three core pillars supporting Solana’s investment case: sustainable economics, developer attraction, and consistent execution. It highlights Solana’s remarkable outperformance compared to other major smart contract platforms in terms of price growth in 2024.

該報告確定了支持 Solana 投資案例的三個核心支柱：永續經濟、開發商吸引力和一致執行。它突顯了 Solana 與其他主要智慧合約平台相比，在 2024 年的價格成長方面表現出色。

Dubbed the “iPhone moment for blockchain” by the report, Solana's standout features include its ability to process 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) and its low transaction costs. This high throughput positions it as an ideal platform for building decentralized, high-volume, low-latency applications, such as decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

Solana 被報告稱為“區塊鏈的 iPhone 時刻”，其突出特點包括每秒處理 65,000 筆交易 (TPS) 的能力以及較低的交易成本。這種高吞吐量使其成為建立去中心化、大容量、低延遲應用程式（例如去中心化交易所（DEX））的理想平台。

The chart below demonstrates that Solana’s TPS rivals that of Visa and far surpasses competing smart contract platforms like BNB Chain and Ethereum. Additionally, Solana experienced a parabolic increase in daily active addresses (DAA) in 2024, surpassing the combined DAA of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), indicating growing adoption.

下圖顯示，Solana 的 TPS 可以與 Visa 相媲美，並遠遠超過 BNB Chain 和以太坊等競爭智慧合約平台。此外，Solana 的每日活躍地址 (DAA) 數量在 2024 年呈拋物線式增長，超過了比特幣 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 的 DAA 總和，表明其採用率不斷增長。

In terms of tokenomics, the report notes that 80.7% of SOL’s total supply is currently in circulation, with the remaining 19.3% classified as non-circulating supply. While concerns about potential token inflation persist, Solana’s inflation rate decreases annually and is projected to drop to 1.85% by 2030.

在代幣經濟學方面，報告指出，SOL 總供應量的 80.7% 目前處於流通狀態，其餘 19.3% 被歸類為非流通供應量。儘管對潛在代幣通膨的擔憂持續存在，但 Solana 的通膨率逐年下降，預計到 2030 年將降至 1.85%。

The SOL Bull Case

SOL 牛市案例

The report applies Metcalfe’s Law to estimate Solana’s network value. According to Metcalfe’s Law, a network's utility increases proportionally to the square of its user base.

報告應用梅特卡夫定律來估算 Solana 的網路價值。根據梅特卡夫定律，網路的效用與其用戶群的平方成正比。

For the sake of simplicity, the report assumes the Daily Active Addresses (DAA) to be the number of users and the market capitalization to represent the utility of the network represented in monetary terms.

為了簡單起見，報告假設每日活躍地址（DAA）是用戶數量和市值，以貨幣形式表示網路的效用。

Based on this assumption, the report derives the following equation to estimate Solana’s network value.

基於這個假設，報告推導出以下方程式來估算 Solana 的網路價值。

Solana Network Value = Daily Active Addresses * SOL Price * 0.807

Solana 網路價值 = 每日活躍網址 * SOL 價錢 * 0.807

This equation takes into account the fact that only 80.7% of SOL’s total supply is in circulation. Using this formula, the report calculates the bear case, the base case, and the bull case for Solana.

該方程式考慮了 SOL 總供應量中只有 80.7% 處於流通狀態的事實。使用此公式，報告計算 Solana 的熊市情況、基本情況和牛市情況。

The bear case for SOL foresees a cumulative annual growth rate of 35.1%, yielding a target price of $2,318 by 2030. Similarly, the base case assumes a CAGR of 47.2%, resulting in a price of $4,025 by 2030. On the contrary, the bull case for SOL projects a price target of $6,636 by 2030, driven by a CAGR of 59.1%.

SOL 的熊市假設預計累計年增長率為 35.1%，到 2030 年目標價為 2,318 美元。 ，其目標價格將達到6,636 美元，複合年增長率為59.1%。

The report adds that the aforementioned forecasts consider the natural deceleration that occurs as networks mature and achieve significant scale. At press time, SOL trades at $214.86, up 8% in the past 24 hours.

該報告補充說，上述預測考慮了隨著網路成熟並達到顯著規模而發生的自然減速。截至發稿，SOL 交易價格為 214.86 美元，過去 24 小時內上漲 8%。