Solana (SOL) 价格分析：它会像一些人预期的那样跌破 100 美元吗？

Solana (SOL) 在 2024 年一直在动荡的水域中航行，价格大幅波动，图表模式表明可能会进一步下跌。

Solana (SOL) has had a turbulent 2024, with significant price volatility and chart patterns suggesting potential further drops. As we move through September, traders are keeping a close eye on critical support levels, especially the $122 and $127 zones. This article combines recent price analysis and projections to explore whether Solana price will dip below $100 as some have expected and if so, what that might mean for its future.

Solana (SOL) 经历了动荡的 2024 年，价格大幅波动，图表模式表明可能会进一步下跌。随着 9 月份的到来，交易者正在密切关注关键支撑位，尤其是 122 美元和 127 美元区域。本文结合最近的价格分析和预测，探讨 Solana 价格是否会像一些人预期的那样跌破 100 美元，如果是这样，这对其未来可能意味着什么。

Solana's price movements have been concerning, especially after closing August 2024 with its second-worst weekly performance of the year—a 19.14% drop. This followed a steeper 25.19% decline in July. In recent weeks, Solana price has hovered dangerously close to key support levels, sparking fears of further corrections.

Solana 的价格走势一直令人担忧，尤其是在 2024 年 8 月收盘后，其周表现为今年第二差——下跌 19.14%。此前，7 月份的跌幅更高达 25.19%。最近几周，Solana 价格危险地徘徊在关键支撑位附近，引发了对进一步调整的担忧。

Meanwhile, the derivatives market has shown a rise in Solana's open interest (OI) by 20%, coupled with a negative funding rate, indicating bearish sentiment. As futures traders increase short positions, this puts downward pressure on SOL. The funding rate has been in negative territory for over a week, marking its longest negative streak since October 2023.

与此同时，衍生品市场的 Solana 未平仓合约 (OI) 增加了 20%，加上融资利率为负，表明看跌情绪。随着期货交易商增加空头头寸，这给 SOL 带来下行压力。资金利率已处于负数一周多了，这是自 2023 年 10 月以来最长的负值连续走势。

Critical Support Levels For Solana Price: $127 and $122

Solana 价格的关键支撑位：127 美元和 122 美元

The $127 price point is a critical support level for Solana price. Since April 2024, the coin has dropped below this level six times but managed to bounce back. However, in September, the situation looks more precarious. Losing the $127 support would push SOL toward a significant liquidity sweep near $110. If bearish momentum continues, SOL could even test the $98-$104 zone, a crucial demand area. This drop would represent a 22% correction, marking a new lower low for 2024.

127 美元的价格点是 Solana 价格的关键支撑位。自 2024 年 4 月以来，该代币已六次跌破该水平，但均成功反弹。然而，进入9月，情况看起来更加岌岌可危。失去 127 美元的支撑位将推动 SOL 的流动性大幅上涨至 110 美元附近。如果看跌势头持续下去，SOL 甚至可能测试 98-104 美元区域，这是一个关键的需求区域。此次下跌意味着 22% 的修正，标志着 2024 年新低。

On the other hand, $122 remains another essential support level for the medium to long term. Historically, whales have identified $122 as a key price point, and any sustained drop below this level—especially for more than 5 to 8 days—could shift the entire market structure. A drop under $122 could signal further declines toward the $90 mark, where the next Fibonacci levels and rising trendlines may come into play.

另一方面，122美元仍然是中长期的另一个重要支撑位。从历史上看，鲸鱼将 122 美元确定为关键价格点，任何持续跌破该水平（尤其是超过 5 至 8 天）都可能改变整个市场结构。跌破 122 美元可能预示着进一步跌向 90 美元大关，下一个斐波那契水平和上升趋势线可能会发挥作用。

Solana Price Analysis: Bearish Now, Bullish Later?

Solana 价格分析：现在看跌，以后看涨？

While Solana's price action in August and September appears overwhelmingly bearish, a deeper correction could set the stage for a bullish outcome in 2025. Analysts predict that if SOL experiences a drop in the short term, it could form a classic bullish cup-and-handle pattern, which may lead to a strong upward rally in 2025.

尽管 Solana 在 8 月和 9 月的价格走势似乎极其看跌，但更深入的调整可能为 2025 年的看涨结果奠定基础。分析师预测，如果 SOL 在短期内下跌，可能会形成经典的看涨杯柄形态格局，这可能会导致 2025 年强劲的上行反弹。

This theory hinges on SOL respecting its dominant chart structures and key Fibonacci levels. A short-term price drop to $90 would still keep Solana within these crucial zones, allowing the altcoin to regain momentum later. However, a deeper breach below these levels could signal a more prolonged bearish trend.

该理论取决于 SOL 尊重其主要图表结构和关键斐波那契水平。短期价格跌至 90 美元仍将使 Solana 保持在这些关键区域内，从而使山寨币稍后重新获得动力。然而，更深地跌破这些水平可能预示着更长期的看跌趋势。

What to Expect For SOL Price in September and October 2024

2024 年 9 月和 10 月 SOL 价格有何预期

September could be a make-or-break month for Solana price, with key support levels being tested and the overall crypto market experiencing continued uncertainty. Patience will be key as traders monitor these levels. If Solana price holds above $122, it might recover quickly in Q4 2024. However, if it drops below $100, a long-term bearish scenario could unfold.

9 月可能是 Solana 价格成败的一个月，关键支撑位正在接受测试，整个加密货币市场也面临持续的不确定性。当交易者监控这些水平时，耐心将是关键。如果 Solana 价格保持在 122 美元以上，可能会在 2024 年第四季度迅速回升。但是，如果价格跌破 100 美元，则可能会出现长期看跌局面。

October is expected to be a decisive month for the entire crypto market, including Solana. Traders should stay cautious and be prepared for further volatility as the market navigates this critical period.

预计 10 月对于包括 Solana 在内的整个加密市场来说是决定性的一个月。随着市场度过这一关键时期，交易者应保持谨慎，并为进一步的波动做好准备。