Solana (SOL) 價格分析：它會像一些人預期的那樣跌破 100 美元嗎？

Solana (SOL) 在 2024 年一直在動蕩的水域中航行，價格大幅波動，圖表模式表明可能會進一步下跌。

Solana (SOL) has had a turbulent 2024, with significant price volatility and chart patterns suggesting potential further drops. As we move through September, traders are keeping a close eye on critical support levels, especially the $122 and $127 zones. This article combines recent price analysis and projections to explore whether Solana price will dip below $100 as some have expected and if so, what that might mean for its future.

Solana (SOL) 經歷了動蕩的 2024 年，價格大幅波動，圖表模式表明可能會進一步下跌。隨著 9 月的到來，交易者正在密切關注關鍵支撐位，尤其是 122 美元和 127 美元區域。本文結合最近的價格分析和預測，探討 Solana 價格是否會像一些人預期的那樣跌破 100 美元，如果是這樣，這對其未來可能意味著什麼。

Solana's price movements have been concerning, especially after closing August 2024 with its second-worst weekly performance of the year—a 19.14% drop. This followed a steeper 25.19% decline in July. In recent weeks, Solana price has hovered dangerously close to key support levels, sparking fears of further corrections.

Solana 的價格走勢一直令人擔憂，尤其是在 2024 年 8 月收盤後，其周表現為今年第二差——下跌 19.14%。此前，7 月的跌幅更高達 25.19%。最近幾週，Solana 價格危險地徘徊在關鍵支撐位附近，引發了對進一步調整的擔憂。

Meanwhile, the derivatives market has shown a rise in Solana's open interest (OI) by 20%, coupled with a negative funding rate, indicating bearish sentiment. As futures traders increase short positions, this puts downward pressure on SOL. The funding rate has been in negative territory for over a week, marking its longest negative streak since October 2023.

同時，衍生性商品市場的 Solana 未平倉合約 (OI) 增加了 20%，加上融資利率為負，顯示看跌情緒。隨著期貨交易商增加空頭部位，這給 SOL 帶來下行壓力。資金利率已處於負數一周多了，這是自 2023 年 10 月以來最長的負值連續走勢。

Critical Support Levels For Solana Price: $127 and $122

Solana 價格的關鍵支撐位：127 美元和 122 美元

The $127 price point is a critical support level for Solana price. Since April 2024, the coin has dropped below this level six times but managed to bounce back. However, in September, the situation looks more precarious. Losing the $127 support would push SOL toward a significant liquidity sweep near $110. If bearish momentum continues, SOL could even test the $98-$104 zone, a crucial demand area. This drop would represent a 22% correction, marking a new lower low for 2024.

127 美元的價格點是 Solana 價格的關鍵支撐位。自 2024 年 4 月以來，該代幣已六次跌破該水平，但均成功反彈。然而，進入9月，情況看起來更加岌岌可危。失去 127 美元的支撐位將推動 SOL 的流動性大幅上漲至 110 美元附近。如果看跌勢頭持續下去，SOL 甚至可能測試 98-104 美元區域，這是一個關鍵的需求區域。此次下跌意味著 22% 的修正，標誌著 2024 年新低。

On the other hand, $122 remains another essential support level for the medium to long term. Historically, whales have identified $122 as a key price point, and any sustained drop below this level—especially for more than 5 to 8 days—could shift the entire market structure. A drop under $122 could signal further declines toward the $90 mark, where the next Fibonacci levels and rising trendlines may come into play.

另一方面，122美元仍然是中長期的另一個重要支撐位。從歷史上看，鯨魚將 122 美元確定為關鍵價格點，任何持續跌破該水平（尤其是超過 5 至 8 天）都可能改變整個市場結構。跌破 122 美元可能預示著進一步跌向 90 美元大關，下一個斐波那契水平和上升趨勢線可能會發揮作用。

Solana Price Analysis: Bearish Now, Bullish Later?

Solana 價格分析：現在看跌，以後看漲？

While Solana's price action in August and September appears overwhelmingly bearish, a deeper correction could set the stage for a bullish outcome in 2025. Analysts predict that if SOL experiences a drop in the short term, it could form a classic bullish cup-and-handle pattern, which may lead to a strong upward rally in 2025.

儘管 Solana 在 8 月和 9 月的價格走勢似乎極其看跌，但更深入的調整可能為 2025 年的看漲結果奠定基礎。格局，這可能會導致2025 年強勁的上行反彈。

This theory hinges on SOL respecting its dominant chart structures and key Fibonacci levels. A short-term price drop to $90 would still keep Solana within these crucial zones, allowing the altcoin to regain momentum later. However, a deeper breach below these levels could signal a more prolonged bearish trend.

該理論取決於 SOL 尊重其主要圖表結構和關鍵斐波那契程度。短期價格跌至 90 美元仍將使 Solana 保持在這些關鍵區域內，從而使山寨幣稍後重新獲得動力。然而，更深地跌破這些水平可能預示著更長期的看跌趨勢。

What to Expect For SOL Price in September and October 2024

2024 年 9 月和 10 月 SOL 價格有何預期

September could be a make-or-break month for Solana price, with key support levels being tested and the overall crypto market experiencing continued uncertainty. Patience will be key as traders monitor these levels. If Solana price holds above $122, it might recover quickly in Q4 2024. However, if it drops below $100, a long-term bearish scenario could unfold.

9 月可能是 Solana 價格成敗的一個月，關鍵支撐位正在測試，整個加密貨幣市場也面臨持續的不確定性。當交易者監控這些水準時，耐心將是關鍵。如果 Solana 價格保持在 122 美元以上，可能會在 2024 年第四季度迅速回升。

October is expected to be a decisive month for the entire crypto market, including Solana. Traders should stay cautious and be prepared for further volatility as the market navigates this critical period.

預計 10 月對於包括 Solana 在內的整個加密市場來說是決定性的一個月。隨著市場度過這段關鍵時期，交易者應保持謹慎，並為進一步的波動做好準備。