4个迹象，现在可能是购买比特币的好时机

比特币的价格最近降至四个月的低点，促使投资者怀疑这是购买的机会还是更深层次的幻灯片的开始。

The price of Bitcoin has dropped to a four-month low recently, prompting investors to wonder if this is a chance to buy or the beginning of a deeper slide.

比特币的价格最近降至四个月的低点，促使投资者怀疑这是购买的机会还是更深层次的幻灯片的开始。

Bitcoin has fallen recently to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11 following a steep decline in the stock market. The S&P 500 declined by 6% for the week, reaching a six-month low as investors panicked over a potential global economic slowdown.

在股票市场大幅下降之后，比特币最近跌至3月11日的四个月低点76,700美元。一周中，标准普尔500指数下降了6％，由于投资者对潜在的全球经济放缓感到恐慌，达到了六个月的低点。

In spite of Bitcoin’s 30% correction from its record high price of $109,350, a few vital metrics indicate that the correction process could be nearing an end and recovery could soon set in.

尽管比特币的高价109,350美元的高价比比特币进行了30％的纠正，但一些重要的指标表明，校正过程可能接近结束，并且很快就会恢复。

Here are four signs that now might be a good time to buy Bitcoin:

这里有四个迹象，现在可能是购买比特币的好时机：

1. Bitcoin’s Decline Doesn’t Equal a Bear Market

1。比特币的下降不等于熊市

Some experts are suggesting that Bitcoin is entering a bear market, but the recent decline is not comparable to the 2021 collapse. At that time, Bitcoin dropped 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 over 60 days.

一些专家建议比特币进入熊市，但最近的下降与2021年的崩溃并不相似。当时，比特币在60天内从69,000美元降至40,560美元。

If the same drop were to occur today, Bitcoin would have to decline to approximately $64,400 by the end of March. However, currently, Bitcoin’s correction is more comparable to the 31.5% drop from $71,940 in June 2024 to $49,220 within 60 days.

如果今天发生同样的下降，到3月底，比特币必须降至约64,400美元。但是，目前，比特币的校正更像是从2024年6月的71,940美元下降到60天内的49,220美元。

2. The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Strength, Which Benefits Bitcoin

2。美元正在失去力量，这使比特币受益

Bitcoin often moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar. When Bitcoin entered a bear market in 2021, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) experienced a surge from 92.4 to 96.0. In the present context, the DXY started 2025 at 109.2 but has since decreased to 104.

比特币通常朝着与美元相反的方向移动。当比特币在2021年进入熊市市场时，美元指数（DXY）的经历从92.4到96.0。在当前情况下，DXY于2025年开始于109.2，但此后已减少到104。

This decreasing dollar indicates that investors are not rushing to cash, which might help maintain Bitcoin’s price in the short term as it is known to benefit when the DXY faces pressure.

这种下降的美元表明，投资者没有急于现金，这可能有助于在短期内维持比特币的价格，因为当DXY面临压力时已知会受益。

3. Bitcoin’s Derivatives Market Shows Strength

3。比特币的衍生品市场显示强度

The Bitcoin futures market is still displaying strength and health despite the recent price declines. The annualized premium on Bitcoin futures stands at 4.5%, which is significantly healthier than what was observed during past market crashes.

尽管价格下跌，但比特币期货市场仍在表现出力量和健康。比特币期货的年度溢价为4.5％，比过去的市场崩溃中观察到的要健康。

For instance, in June 2022, when Bitcoin experienced a substantial 44% drop from $31,350 to $17,585, the futures premium fell to 0%. Moreover, traders at the time displayed a high level of fear, pushing the futures to sell-off at an accelerated rate. In contrast, traders are not exhibiting the same degree of panic currently, suggesting that the market is anticipating a rebound.

例如，在2022年6月，当比特币从31,350美元下降到17,585美元时，期货保费下降到0％。此外，当时的交易者表现出高度的恐惧，将期货推动以加速的速度抛售。相比之下，交易者目前没有表现出相同程度的恐慌，这表明市场预计会有反弹。

4. Economic Uncertainty and Real Estate Crisis Could Push Bitcoin Higher

4。经济不确定性和房地产危机可能会将比特币提高

There are fears of a U.S. government shutdown on March 15, which could bring about market volatility. However, if an agreement is reached, it might lead to increased investor confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin.

人们担心3月15日美国政府关闭，这可能会导致市场波动。但是，如果达成协议，这可能会导致投资者对像比特币这样的风险资产的信心。

Meanwhile, there are also signs of a real estate crisis emerging. Home sales hit an all-time low in January, and mortgage delinquencies are surging to levels last seen in 2008. This could drive investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin as a hedge against financial uncertainty.

同时，也有出现房地产危机的迹象。房屋销售在一月份的历史最低水平，抵押贷款拖欠率在2008年的最后水平上升到了最新水平。这可能会促使投资者寻求比特币的庇护，以此作为对财务不确定性的对冲。

Despite Bitcoin’s recent drop, several key metrics suggest that the correction process could be nearing an end and a recovery could be setting in. A weaker U.S. dollar, strong derivatives market, and persistent economic uncertainty could support Bitcoin in the coming months, potentially pushing it back toward the $90,000 level.

尽管比特币最近下降，但几个关键指标表明，校正过程可能已经接近结束，并且可能会恢复。美元，较弱的美元，强大的衍生品市场和持续的经济不确定性可以在未来几个月内支持比特币，并有可能将其恢复到90,000美元的水平。