4個跡象，現在可能是購買比特幣的好時機

比特幣的價格最近降至四個月的低點，促使投資者懷疑這是購買的機會還是更深層次的幻燈片的開始。

The price of Bitcoin has dropped to a four-month low recently, prompting investors to wonder if this is a chance to buy or the beginning of a deeper slide.

比特幣的價格最近降至四個月的低點，促使投資者懷疑這是購買的機會還是更深層次的幻燈片的開始。

Bitcoin has fallen recently to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11 following a steep decline in the stock market. The S&P 500 declined by 6% for the week, reaching a six-month low as investors panicked over a potential global economic slowdown.

在股票市場大幅下降之後，比特幣最近跌至3月11日的四個月低點76,700美元。一周中，標準普爾500指數下降了6％，由於投資者對潛在的全球經濟放緩感到恐慌，達到了六個月的低點。

In spite of Bitcoin’s 30% correction from its record high price of $109,350, a few vital metrics indicate that the correction process could be nearing an end and recovery could soon set in.

儘管比特幣的高價109,350美元的高價比比特幣進行了30％的糾正，但一些重要的指標表明，校正過程可能接近結束，並且很快就會恢復。

Here are four signs that now might be a good time to buy Bitcoin:

這裡有四個跡象，現在可能是購買比特幣的好時機：

1. Bitcoin’s Decline Doesn’t Equal a Bear Market

1。比特幣的下降不等於熊市

Some experts are suggesting that Bitcoin is entering a bear market, but the recent decline is not comparable to the 2021 collapse. At that time, Bitcoin dropped 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 over 60 days.

一些專家建議比特幣進入熊市，但最近的下降與2021年的崩潰並不相似。當時，比特幣在60天內從69,000美元降至40,560美元。

If the same drop were to occur today, Bitcoin would have to decline to approximately $64,400 by the end of March. However, currently, Bitcoin’s correction is more comparable to the 31.5% drop from $71,940 in June 2024 to $49,220 within 60 days.

如果今天發生同樣的下降，到3月底，比特幣必須降至約64,400美元。但是，目前，比特幣的校正更像是從2024年6月的71,940美元下降到60天內的49,220美元。

2. The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Strength, Which Benefits Bitcoin

2。美元正在失去力量，這使比特幣受益

Bitcoin often moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar. When Bitcoin entered a bear market in 2021, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) experienced a surge from 92.4 to 96.0. In the present context, the DXY started 2025 at 109.2 but has since decreased to 104.

比特幣通常朝著與美元相反的方向移動。當比特幣在2021年進入熊市市場時，美元指數（DXY）的經歷從92.4到96.0。在當前情況下，DXY於2025年開始於109.2，但此後已減少到104。

This decreasing dollar indicates that investors are not rushing to cash, which might help maintain Bitcoin’s price in the short term as it is known to benefit when the DXY faces pressure.

這種下降的美元表明，投資者沒有急於現金，這可能有助於在短期內維持比特幣的價格，因為當DXY面臨壓力時已知會受益。

3. Bitcoin’s Derivatives Market Shows Strength

3。比特幣的衍生品市場顯示強度

The Bitcoin futures market is still displaying strength and health despite the recent price declines. The annualized premium on Bitcoin futures stands at 4.5%, which is significantly healthier than what was observed during past market crashes.

儘管價格下跌，但比特幣期貨市場仍在表現出力量和健康。比特幣期貨的年度溢價為4.5％，比過去的市場崩潰中觀察到的要健康。

For instance, in June 2022, when Bitcoin experienced a substantial 44% drop from $31,350 to $17,585, the futures premium fell to 0%. Moreover, traders at the time displayed a high level of fear, pushing the futures to sell-off at an accelerated rate. In contrast, traders are not exhibiting the same degree of panic currently, suggesting that the market is anticipating a rebound.

例如，在2022年6月，當比特幣從31,350美元下降到17,585美元時，期貨保費下降到0％。此外，當時的交易者表現出高度的恐懼，將期貨推動以加速的速度拋售。相比之下，交易者目前沒有表現出相同程度的恐慌，這表明市場預計會有反彈。

4. Economic Uncertainty and Real Estate Crisis Could Push Bitcoin Higher

4。經濟不確定性和房地產危機可能會將比特幣提高

There are fears of a U.S. government shutdown on March 15, which could bring about market volatility. However, if an agreement is reached, it might lead to increased investor confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin.

人們擔心3月15日美國政府關閉，這可能會導致市場波動。但是，如果達成協議，這可能會導致投資者對像比特幣這樣的風險資產的信心。

Meanwhile, there are also signs of a real estate crisis emerging. Home sales hit an all-time low in January, and mortgage delinquencies are surging to levels last seen in 2008. This could drive investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin as a hedge against financial uncertainty.

同時，也有出現房地產危機的跡象。房屋銷售在一月份的歷史最低水平，抵押貸款拖欠率在2008年的最後水平上升到了最新水平。這可能會促使投資者尋求比特幣的庇護，以此作為對財務不確定性的對沖。

Despite Bitcoin’s recent drop, several key metrics suggest that the correction process could be nearing an end and a recovery could be setting in. A weaker U.S. dollar, strong derivatives market, and persistent economic uncertainty could support Bitcoin in the coming months, potentially pushing it back toward the $90,000 level.

儘管比特幣最近下降，但幾個關鍵指標表明，校正過程可能已經接近結束，並且可能會恢復。美元，較弱的美元，強大的衍生品市場和持續的經濟不確定性可以在未來幾個月內支持比特幣，並有可能將其恢復到90,000美元的水平。