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最近,一位化名“datascope”的 CryptoQuant 分析师深入分析了比特币价格与多头/空头交易量与持仓量比率之间的关系。
A CryptoQuant analyst, known as “datascope,” has recently provided valuable insight into the relationship between Bitcoin price and the Long/Short Volume to Open Interest Ratio.
一位被称为“datascope”的 CryptoQuant 分析师最近对比特币价格与多头/空头交易量与持仓量比率之间的关系提供了宝贵的见解。
This ratio is a key metric for understanding market behavior and investor sentiment, making it a useful tool for predicting potential price trends.
该比率是了解市场行为和投资者情绪的关键指标,使其成为预测潜在价格趋势的有用工具。
Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Gearing Up For A Bigger Rally? Here’s What On-Chain Data Reveals
相关阅读:比特币是否正在为更大的反弹做好准备?这是链上数据揭示的内容
The Role Of The Long/Short Ratio In Market Sentiment
多空比率在市场情绪中的作用
The Long/Short ratio measures the balance of the market’s long (buy) and short (sell) positions as investor sentiment shifts between optimism and pessimism.
多头/空头比率衡量当投资者情绪在乐观和悲观之间转变时市场多头(买入)和空头(卖出)头寸的平衡。
This dynamic ratio indicates the prevailing sentiment—whether the market expects the price to increase or decrease. Identifying these signals is crucial as it can hint at potential price movements and market turning points.
这个动态比率表明了普遍的情绪——市场预期价格是上涨还是下跌。识别这些信号至关重要,因为它可以暗示潜在的价格走势和市场转折点。
To further understand the concept behind this indicator, the CryptoQuant analyst elaborated, noting:
为了进一步理解该指标背后的概念,CryptoQuant 分析师进行了详细阐述,并指出:
The Long/Short ratio indicates the distribution of long and short positions held by investors. A high Long ratio means that investors generally expect a price rise, indicating positive sentiment, while a high Short ratio suggests expectations of a price decline.
多空比率表示投资者持有多头和空头头寸的分布情况。高多头比率意味着投资者普遍预期价格上涨,表明积极情绪,而高空头比率则表明预期价格下跌。
Analyzing Bitcoin’s historical data, datascope pointed out how the ratio correlates with price changes. The chart provided in the analysis showed Bitcoin’s price trajectory, represented by a white line, along with the Long/Short ratio indicated by green and red lines.
通过分析比特币的历史数据,datascope 指出了该比率与价格变化的关系。分析中提供的图表显示了比特币的价格轨迹,以白线表示,以及以绿线和红线表示的多/空比率。
The analyst used Red and green boxes to highlight periods of extremely long or short positions, providing a visual representation of when market sentiment reached heightened levels of either optimism or fear.
分析师使用红色和绿色方框来突出显示极多头或空头头寸的时期,直观地表示市场情绪何时达到乐观或恐惧的高度水平。
These extreme positions often serve as indicators for potential price reversals. For instance, when the ratio shows excessive long positions (highlighted in red boxes), it may signal that market optimism is too high, often leading to corrections as overly confident investors trigger a sell-off.
这些极端头寸通常可以作为潜在价格反转的指标。例如,当该比率显示过多的多头头寸(以红色框突出显示)时,可能表明市场乐观情绪过高,通常会因过度自信的投资者引发抛售而导致调整。
On the other hand, a rise in short positions (highlighted in green boxes) may suggest that fear and pessimism have peaked, often marking a turning point for a price recovery.
另一方面,空头头寸的增加(以绿色方框突出显示)可能表明恐惧和悲观情绪已经达到顶峰,通常标志着价格复苏的转折点。
Current Bitcoin Market Shifts Using The Long/Short Ratio
当前比特币市场利用多空比率发生变化
As per the chart shared by Datascope, currently, Bitcoin’s long positions do seem to be excessive, signaling a potential reversal to the downside.
根据 Datascope 分享的图表,目前,比特币的多头头寸似乎确实过多,这表明比特币可能会逆转下行趋势。
However, datascope mentioned that it is essential to approach this ratio with caution. The analyst emphasized that although the Long/Short ratio is a powerful tool for understanding market sentiment, it should not be relied upon in isolation.
然而,datascope 提到,必须谨慎对待这个比率。该分析师强调,虽然多空比率是了解市场情绪的有力工具,但不应孤立地依赖它。
The CryptoQuant analyst concluded:
CryptoQuant 分析师得出结论:
Investors should use market sentiment alongside other technical indicators for more reliable signals, as relying solely on this ratio can be misleading.
投资者应将市场情绪与其他技术指标结合起来,以获得更可靠的信号,因为仅依赖该比率可能会产生误导。
Featured image created with DALLE, Chart from TradingView
使用 DALLE 创建的特色图片,来自 TradingView 的图表
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