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最近,一位化名「datascope」的 CryptoQuant 分析師深入分析了比特幣價格與多頭/空頭交易量與持倉量比率之間的關係。
A CryptoQuant analyst, known as “datascope,” has recently provided valuable insight into the relationship between Bitcoin price and the Long/Short Volume to Open Interest Ratio.
一位被稱為「datascope」的 CryptoQuant 分析師最近對比特幣價格與多頭/空頭交易量與持倉量比率之間的關係提供了寶貴的見解。
This ratio is a key metric for understanding market behavior and investor sentiment, making it a useful tool for predicting potential price trends.
該比率是了解市場行為和投資者情緒的關鍵指標,使其成為預測潛在價格趨勢的有用工具。
Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Gearing Up For A Bigger Rally? Here’s What On-Chain Data Reveals
相關閱讀:比特幣是否正在為更大的反彈做好準備?這是鏈上數據揭示的內容
The Role Of The Long/Short Ratio In Market Sentiment
多空比率在市場情緒中的作用
The Long/Short ratio measures the balance of the market’s long (buy) and short (sell) positions as investor sentiment shifts between optimism and pessimism.
多頭/空頭比率衡量當投資者情緒在樂觀和悲觀之間轉變時市場多頭(買入)和空頭(賣出)頭寸的平衡。
This dynamic ratio indicates the prevailing sentiment—whether the market expects the price to increase or decrease. Identifying these signals is crucial as it can hint at potential price movements and market turning points.
這個動態比率顯示了普遍的情緒——市場預期價格是上漲還是下跌。識別這些訊號至關重要,因為它可以暗示潛在的價格走勢和市場轉折點。
To further understand the concept behind this indicator, the CryptoQuant analyst elaborated, noting:
為了進一步理解該指標背後的概念,CryptoQuant 分析師進行了詳細闡述,並指出:
The Long/Short ratio indicates the distribution of long and short positions held by investors. A high Long ratio means that investors generally expect a price rise, indicating positive sentiment, while a high Short ratio suggests expectations of a price decline.
多空比率表示投資者持有的多頭和空頭部位的分佈。高多頭比率意味著投資者普遍預期價格上漲,顯示正面情緒,而高空頭比率則表示預期價格下跌。
Analyzing Bitcoin’s historical data, datascope pointed out how the ratio correlates with price changes. The chart provided in the analysis showed Bitcoin’s price trajectory, represented by a white line, along with the Long/Short ratio indicated by green and red lines.
透過分析比特幣的歷史數據,datascope 指出了該比率與價格變化的關係。分析中提供的圖表顯示了比特幣的價格軌跡,以白線表示,以及以綠線和紅線表示的多/空比率。
The analyst used Red and green boxes to highlight periods of extremely long or short positions, providing a visual representation of when market sentiment reached heightened levels of either optimism or fear.
分析師使用紅色和綠色方框來突出顯示極多頭或空頭頭寸的時期,直觀地表示市場情緒何時達到樂觀或恐懼的高度水平。
These extreme positions often serve as indicators for potential price reversals. For instance, when the ratio shows excessive long positions (highlighted in red boxes), it may signal that market optimism is too high, often leading to corrections as overly confident investors trigger a sell-off.
這些極端部位通常可以作為潛在價格反轉的指標。例如,當該比率顯示過多的多頭部位(以紅色框突出顯示)時,可能表示市場樂觀情緒過高,通常會因過度自信的投資者引發拋售而導致調整。
On the other hand, a rise in short positions (highlighted in green boxes) may suggest that fear and pessimism have peaked, often marking a turning point for a price recovery.
另一方面,空頭部位的增加(以綠色方框突出顯示)可能表明恐懼和悲觀情緒已經達到頂峰,通常標誌著價格復甦的轉折點。
Current Bitcoin Market Shifts Using The Long/Short Ratio
當前比特幣市場利用多空比率發生變化
As per the chart shared by Datascope, currently, Bitcoin’s long positions do seem to be excessive, signaling a potential reversal to the downside.
根據 Datascope 分享的圖表,目前,比特幣的多頭部位似乎確實過多,這表明比特幣可能會逆轉下行趨勢。
However, datascope mentioned that it is essential to approach this ratio with caution. The analyst emphasized that although the Long/Short ratio is a powerful tool for understanding market sentiment, it should not be relied upon in isolation.
然而,datascope 提到,必須謹慎對待這個比率。該分析師強調,雖然多空比率是了解市場情緒的有力工具,但不應孤立地依賴它。
The CryptoQuant analyst concluded:
CryptoQuant 分析師結論:
Investors should use market sentiment alongside other technical indicators for more reliable signals, as relying solely on this ratio can be misleading.
投資者應將市場情緒與其他技術指標結合起來,以獲得更可靠的訊號,因為僅依賴該比率可能會產生誤導。
Featured image created with DALLE, Chart from TradingView
使用 DALLE 建立的特色圖片,來自 TradingView 的圖表
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