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随着中东紧张局势加剧,加密货币今天暴跌。投资者和专家也一直在质疑利率的走向。
Cryptocurrency prices fell on Friday as tensions flared in the Middle East and investors assessed the outlook for interest rates amid speculation that the Federal Reserve may not cut as aggressively as markets expect.
由于中东紧张局势加剧,加密货币价格周五下跌,投资者猜测美联储可能不会像市场预期的那样大幅降息,并对利率前景进行评估。
Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) price fell about 6.5% this morning, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) and Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO: BCH) prices fell 5.7% and 5%, respectively, by late morning.
Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) 价格今早下跌约 6.5%,而 XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) 和比特币现金 (CRYPTO: BCH) 价格到上午晚些时候分别下跌 5.7% 和 5%。
Rising oil prices boosted the dollar
油价上涨提振美元
The escalating conflict in the Middle Iran is grabbing headlines and impacting crypto prices. Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles into Israel on Thursday, and Israel said it planned to send more troops into Lebanon in a “limited, localized” ground campaign against the Iranian militant group Hezbollah.
伊朗中部不断升级的冲突正在成为头条新闻并影响加密货币价格。伊朗周四向以色列发射了 200 枚弹道导弹,以色列表示计划向黎巴嫩派遣更多部队,对伊朗激进组织真主党进行“有限的、局部的”地面打击。
"Surging unrest across the Middle East propelled oil prices upward and reinforced the dollar's strength, casting a shadow over Bitcoin and other speculative investments," Chris Kline, chief operating officer and co-founder of Bitcoin IRA, told CNBC.
Bitcoin IRA 首席运营官兼联合创始人 Chris Kline 向 CNBC 表示:“中东地区动荡不安,推动油价上涨,并增强了美元的强势,给比特币和其他投机性投资蒙上了阴影。”
WTI Crude Oil prices rose nearly 2.9% by late morning, while the U.S. Dollar Index was also trading higher. That bodes poorly for cryptocurrencies, which are seen as an alternative to mainstream currencies like the dollar. Crypto has historically performed better with a weak dollar and floundered under a strengthening dollar.
截至上午晚些时候,WTI 原油价格上涨近 2.9%,而美元指数也走高。这对加密货币来说是个坏兆头,因为加密货币被视为美元等主流货币的替代品。从历史上看,加密货币在美元疲软的情况下表现较好,但在美元走强的情况下表现不佳。
In another concerning development, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink recently said publicly that he feels the market is pricing in too many interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are betting that the Fed will cut its benchmark federal funds rate by another 75 basis points this year and could lower it to 3% or below by the end of 2025.
在另一个令人担忧的事态发展中,贝莱德(NYSE:BLK)首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)最近公开表示,他认为市场消化了太多的降息。根据芝商所的 FedWatch 工具,交易员押注美联储今年将把基准联邦基金利率再下调 75 个基点,并可能在 2025 年底前降至 3% 或更低。
"The amount of easing that's in the forward curve is crazy," Fink told Bloomberg on the sidelines of a conference in Berlin. "I do believe there's room for easing more, but not as much as the forward curve would indicate."
“远期曲线中的宽松程度是疯狂的,”芬克在柏林会议间隙告诉彭博社。 “我确实相信还有进一步宽松的空间,但幅度不会像远期曲线所显示的那么大。”
Lower interest rates tend to lead to a weaker dollar, so if there are fewer cuts than what's currently priced in, it could bode poorly for crypto in the near term.
较低的利率往往会导致美元走软,因此,如果降息幅度低于目前定价的水平,那么短期内对加密货币来说可能是一个糟糕的兆头。
I didn't see much token-specific news this morning, but I did notice that crypto asset management firm Bitwise filed some initial paperwork to set up an exchange-traded fund that tracks XRP, which was created by the company Ripple. According to CoinDesk, Bitwise took the first step in the ETF process by filing a trust entity in Delaware. This would be a positive catalyst for XRP. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have increased liquidity and exposure to their respective tokens.
今天早上我没有看到太多特定于代币的新闻,但我确实注意到加密资产管理公司 Bitwise 提交了一些初步文件,以建立追踪 XRP 的交易所交易基金,该基金是由 Ripple 公司创建的。据 CoinDesk 报道,Bitwise 通过在特拉华州注册信托实体,迈出了 ETF 流程的第一步。这将是 XRP 的积极催化剂。现货比特币和以太坊 ETF 增加了各自代币的流动性和敞口。
Buy the dip?
逢低买入?
I think it's clear that the conflict in the Middle East is taking over this morning. I think XRP would normally be up on the news of a potential ETF, but the sector can move together, and the trajectory of interest rates and the dollar is踽 overshadowing everything else.
我认为很明显,中东冲突今天早上正在蔓延。我认为,XRP 通常会因潜在 ETF 的消息而上涨,但该行业可以共同移动,而且利率和美元的走势盖过了其他一切。
I'm not a huge fan of altcoins due to their inability to stand out from one another and would prefer to buy the dip on Bitcoin and Ether. However, I do see some potential in XRP. XRP's potential use case of improving cross-border payments is compelling and the token also has a limited supply like Bitcoin, albeit a much higher amount. The potential of an XRP ETF is also very intriguing. Spot ETFs previously led to big surges in the prices of Bitcoin and Ether.
我不是山寨币的忠实粉丝,因为它们无法脱颖而出,我更愿意逢低买入比特币和以太币。然而,我确实看到了 XRP 的一些潜力。 XRP 改善跨境支付的潜在用例非常引人注目,而且该代币也像比特币一样供应有限,尽管数量要高得多。 XRP ETF 的潜力也非常有趣。现货ETF此前曾导致比特币和以太坊价格大幅上涨。
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