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隨著中東緊張局勢加劇,加密貨幣今天暴跌。投資人和專家也一直在質疑利率的走向。
Cryptocurrency prices fell on Friday as tensions flared in the Middle East and investors assessed the outlook for interest rates amid speculation that the Federal Reserve may not cut as aggressively as markets expect.
由於中東緊張局勢加劇,加密貨幣價格週五下跌,投資人猜測聯準會可能不會像市場預期的那樣大幅降息,並對利率前景進行評估。
Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) price fell about 6.5% this morning, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) and Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO: BCH) prices fell 5.7% and 5%, respectively, by late morning.
Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) 價格今早下跌約 6.5%,而 XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) 和比特幣現金 (CRYPTO: BCH) 價格到上午晚些時候分別下跌 5.7% 和 5%。
Rising oil prices boosted the dollar
油價上漲提振美元
The escalating conflict in the Middle Iran is grabbing headlines and impacting crypto prices. Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles into Israel on Thursday, and Israel said it planned to send more troops into Lebanon in a “limited, localized” ground campaign against the Iranian militant group Hezbollah.
伊朗中部不斷升級的衝突正在成為頭條新聞並影響加密貨幣價格。伊朗週四向以色列發射了 200 枚彈道飛彈,以色列表示計劃向黎巴嫩派遣更多部隊,對伊朗激進組織真主黨進行「有限的、局部的」地面打擊。
"Surging unrest across the Middle East propelled oil prices upward and reinforced the dollar's strength, casting a shadow over Bitcoin and other speculative investments," Chris Kline, chief operating officer and co-founder of Bitcoin IRA, told CNBC.
Bitcoin IRA 首席營運長兼聯合創始人 Chris Kline 向 CNBC 表示:“中東地區動盪不安,推動油價上漲,並增強了美元的強勢,給比特幣和其他投機性投資蒙上了陰影。”
WTI Crude Oil prices rose nearly 2.9% by late morning, while the U.S. Dollar Index was also trading higher. That bodes poorly for cryptocurrencies, which are seen as an alternative to mainstream currencies like the dollar. Crypto has historically performed better with a weak dollar and floundered under a strengthening dollar.
截至上午晚些時候,WTI 原油價格上漲近 2.9%,而美元指數也走高。這對加密貨幣來說是個壞兆頭,因為加密貨幣被視為美元等主流貨幣的替代品。從歷史上看,加密貨幣在美元疲軟的情況下表現較好,在美元走強的情況下表現不佳。
In another concerning development, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink recently said publicly that he feels the market is pricing in too many interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are betting that the Fed will cut its benchmark federal funds rate by another 75 basis points this year and could lower it to 3% or below by the end of 2025.
在另一個令人擔憂的發展中,貝萊德(NYSE:BLK)首席執行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)最近公開表示,他認為市場消化了太多的降息。根據芝商所的 FedWatch 工具,交易員押注聯準會今年將把基準聯邦基金利率再下調 75 個基點,並可能在 2025 年底前降至 3% 或更低。
"The amount of easing that's in the forward curve is crazy," Fink told Bloomberg on the sidelines of a conference in Berlin. "I do believe there's room for easing more, but not as much as the forward curve would indicate."
「遠期曲線中的寬鬆程度是瘋狂的,」芬克在柏林會議間隙告訴彭博。 “我確實相信還有進一步寬鬆的空間,但幅度不會像遠期曲線所顯示的那麼大。”
Lower interest rates tend to lead to a weaker dollar, so if there are fewer cuts than what's currently priced in, it could bode poorly for crypto in the near term.
較低的利率往往會導緻美元走軟,因此,如果降息幅度低於目前定價的水平,那麼短期內對加密貨幣來說可能是一個糟糕的兆頭。
I didn't see much token-specific news this morning, but I did notice that crypto asset management firm Bitwise filed some initial paperwork to set up an exchange-traded fund that tracks XRP, which was created by the company Ripple. According to CoinDesk, Bitwise took the first step in the ETF process by filing a trust entity in Delaware. This would be a positive catalyst for XRP. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have increased liquidity and exposure to their respective tokens.
今天早上我沒有看到太多特定於代幣的新聞,但我確實注意到加密資產管理公司 Bitwise 提交了一些初步文件,以建立追蹤 XRP 的交易所交易基金,該基金是由 Ripple 公司創建的。根據 CoinDesk 報道,Bitwise 透過在德拉瓦州註冊信託實體,邁出了 ETF 流程的第一步。這將是 XRP 的積極催化劑。現貨比特幣和以太坊 ETF 增加了各自代幣的流動性和曝險。
Buy the dip?
逢低買進?
I think it's clear that the conflict in the Middle East is taking over this morning. I think XRP would normally be up on the news of a potential ETF, but the sector can move together, and the trajectory of interest rates and the dollar is踽 overshadowing everything else.
我認為很明顯,中東衝突今天早上正在蔓延。我認為,XRP 通常會因潛在 ETF 的消息而上漲,但該行業可以共同移動,而且利率和美元的走勢蓋過了其他一切。
I'm not a huge fan of altcoins due to their inability to stand out from one another and would prefer to buy the dip on Bitcoin and Ether. However, I do see some potential in XRP. XRP's potential use case of improving cross-border payments is compelling and the token also has a limited supply like Bitcoin, albeit a much higher amount. The potential of an XRP ETF is also very intriguing. Spot ETFs previously led to big surges in the prices of Bitcoin and Ether.
我不是山寨幣的忠實粉絲,因為它們無法脫穎而出,我更願意逢低買進比特幣和以太幣。然而,我確實看到了 XRP 的一些潛力。 XRP 改善跨境支付的潛在用例非常引人注目,而且該代幣也像比特幣一樣供應有限,儘管數量要高得多。 XRP ETF 的潛力也非常有趣。現貨ETF先前曾導致比特幣和以太幣價格大幅上漲。
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