RVM：流动性分裂和短暂的叙述

在符文的数字世界中，野外最臭名昭著的掠夺性策略之一是“诱饵”。这项技术涉及利用毫无戒心的玩家的天真和贪婪，将他们深入危险的野外区域 - 高风险的球员与玩家（PVP）区 - 具有安全，利润机会或商誉的虚假承诺。

In the vast digital realm of RuneScape, a notorious predatory tactic lurks within the Wild Area, known as "baiting." This cunning technique exploits the naivety and avarice of unsuspecting players, luring them deep into the perilous Wild Area - a high-stakes player-versus-player (PVP) zone - with false promises of safety, lucrative opportunities, or goodwill.

在Runescape的广阔数字领域中，一种臭名昭著的掠夺性战术潜伏在野外，被称为“诱饵”。这种狡猾的技巧利用了毫无戒心的球员的天真和贪婪，将他们深入危险的野外区域（一个高风险的球员 - 竞争者（PVP）区域），具有安全的诺言，有着安全的承诺，有利可图的机会或善意。

The mechanic is simple yet effective. The inducer will pose as a helpful ally, offering an enticing reward or favor, carefully crafting a narrative to build trust and lower the victim's guard. Once the victim enters a wilderness area, the illusion is broken and the predator's true intentions are revealed - to ambush the target, strip them of their belongings, and leave them penniless.

机械师简单而有效。诱导者将成为一个有益的盟友，提供诱人的奖励或恩宠，仔细制作叙事以建立信任并降低受害者的警卫。一旦受害者进入旷野区域，幻觉就会破裂，捕食者的真实意图被揭示出来 - 伏击目标，剥夺他们的财产，并使他们一无所知。

This age-old tactic, born out of psychological manipulation and opportunism, is a great example of how social dynamics and trust can be weaponized in a zero-sum environment to extract value from others. It’s a profound warning: the promise of security or guaranteed returns often masks an asymmetric setup designed to benefit the initiator at the expense of the participant.

这种古老的策略源于心理操纵和机会主义，是一个很好的例子，说明如何在零和环境中将社会动态和信任武器武器化，从而从他人那里提取价值。这是一个深刻的警告：安全或保证回报的承诺通常掩盖了一种不对称的设置，旨在以牺牲参与者为代价使发起人受益。

Market Status

市场状况

Liquidity fragmentation and short-lived narratives

流动性分散和短暂的叙述

Too many projects and blockchains: The cryptocurrency ecosystem is rapidly expanding, covering multiple blockchains, protocols, and tokens. This explosive growth has seriously distracted traders, and a large number of new projects and "hot narratives" have emerged, competing for capital inflows. Each project and narrative is trying to gain a share of the limited market, but this competition has led to a fragmented market.

太多的项目和区块链：加密货币生态系统正在迅速扩展，涵盖了多个区块链，协议和令牌。这种爆炸性的增长严重分散了交易者的注意力，大量新项目和“热门叙事”出现了，争夺资本流入。每个项目和叙述都试图获得有限市场的一部分，但是这项竞争导致了一个零散的市场。

High-speed liquidity rotation: Liquidity in the market is shifting from one "hot spot" to another at an unprecedented speed. Once a narrative loses its appeal, participants will quickly abandon it and pursue the next opportunity. This pattern leads to short-term surges and rapid declines in prices, forming "short-lived market" from which most traders fail to realize profits.

高速流动性旋转：市场流动性以空前的速度从一个“热点”转移到另一个“热点”。一旦叙述失去了吸引力，参与者将迅速放弃它并寻求下一个机会。这种模式导致短期浪潮和价格迅速下降，形成了“短暂的市场”，大多数交易者无法实现利润。

Key conclusion: Due to the emergence of a large number of projects and the frequent rotation of liquidity, it is difficult for any single narrative to sustain long-term price increases, and traders need to pay more attention to liquidity dynamics.

关键结论：由于大量项目的出现和频繁的流动性旋转，任何单一叙述都很难维持长期价格上涨，而交易者需要更多地关注流动性动态。

Superposition of interests and differentiation of market sentiment

兴趣叠加和市场情绪的差异

Incentive-driven opinion leaders: In the crypto market, key opinion leaders (KOLs) often promote projects based on their personal interests. They use social media to guide market sentiment and drive short-term popularity of projects. This behavior makes the market narrative lack consistency and further exacerbates the division of market sentiment.

激励驱动的意见领导者：在加密货币市场中，主要意见领导者（KOLS）经常根据其个人利益来促进项目。他们使用社交媒体来指导市场情绪并推动项目的短期流行。这种行为使市场叙事缺乏一致性，并进一步加剧了市场情绪的分歧。

Split market signals: Current market sentiment is full of contradictions. On the one hand, some macroeconomic indicators seem to indicate the arrival of a "bull market"; on the other hand, retail traders generally lose money, and market sentiment appears extremely pessimistic. This inconsistency of signals increases market volatility and confuses traders even more.

市场信号：当前的市场情绪充满了矛盾。一方面，一些宏观经济指标似乎表明了“牛市”的到来。另一方面，零售商人通常会亏钱，市场情绪似乎非常悲观。信号的这种不一致会增加市场的波动，并使交易者更加困惑。

Key conclusion: Interest-driven rhetoric and conflicting signals in the market make the trading environment more complicated, and traders need to be wary of seemingly "authoritative" opinions.

关键结论：市场上以利益驱动的言论和冲突的信号使交易环境更加复杂，交易者需要警惕看似“权威”的意见。

Bitcoin trading and the phantom altcoin season

比特币交易和幻影山币季节

Seizing the Bitcoin Rise: In this round of the market, the traders who made the most money were concentrated in the early stages of Bitcoin's rise. They seized the opportunity to rise earlier than retail traders through precise timing. However, many retail investors were disappointed with Bitcoin's "low return expectations" and turned their funds to altcoins in an attempt to obtain higher returns.

抓住比特币的上升：在这一轮市场中，赚钱最多的商人集中在比特币上升的早期阶段。他们通过精确的时机抓住了比零售商人早起的机会。但是，许多零售投资者对比特币的“低回报期望”感到失望，并将其资金转变为Altcoins，以获得更高的回报。

Misjudgment by retail traders: Retail traders tend to avoid Bitcoin, believing that its market capitalization is too high and its potential upside is limited. They try to find the "next Bitcoin" and put their money into altcoins with lower market capitalization but great potential. However, this strategy mostly fails as the expected "altcoin season" did not come as expected, leaving many people in deep losses.

零售商人的错误判断：零售商人倾向于避免比特币，因为它的市值太高，其潜在上升空间有限。他们试图找到“下一个比特币”，并将他们的资金投入较低的市值，但潜力较大。但是，这种策略主要是因为预期的“替代季节”未能达到预期，因此许多人遭受了深刻的损失。

Key takeaway: Professional traders have seen significant returns from Bitcoin’s rally, while retail traders have missed out by trying to bet on altcoins.

关键要点：专业交易者已经从比特币集会上获得了可观的回报，而零售商人试图押注Altcoins，错过了。

Solana vs Ethereum: Meme Tokens and Liquidity Traps

Solana vs以太坊：模因令牌和流动性陷阱

Short-lived meme craze: The popularity of meme tokens is represented by Pump.fun. Such platforms have spawned a series of new tokens that rely on hype and virality. These assets lack actual value support but attract a large amount of retail funds. This phenomenon is essentially a speculative cycle: early participants try to profit from subsequent capital inflows rather than based on the long-term development prospects of the project.

短暂的模因热潮：模因令牌的受欢迎程度由pump.fun表示。这样的平台产生了一系列依赖炒作和病毒性的新令牌。这些资产缺乏实际价值支持，但吸引了大量零售资金。这种现象本质上是一个投机性周期：早期参与者试图从随后的资本流入中获利，而不是基于该项目的长期发展前景。

An open Ponzi scheme? The survival of Meme tokens depends on continued attention and increasing liquidity. Market participants generally recognize its speculative nature - building a position before others buy at a higher price, and this recognition creates a short-lived pump cycle.

开放的庞氏骗局？模因令牌的存活取决于继续关注和增加流动性。市场参与者通常会认识到其投机性的性质 - 以更高的价格在其他人面前建立职位，而这种认可会产生短暂的泵周期。

Ethereum, the former king of Memes: Ethereum led the market frenzy with NFTs during the 2021 bull market cycle, and again achieved significant gains relative to Bitcoin through tokens such as $PEPE and $MOG in early 2024, bringing considerable returns to early participants.

以太坊是前模因之王：以太坊在2021年的牛市周期中以NFT的身份领先市场，并在2024年初通过$ PEPE和$ MOG等代币获得了相对于比特币的巨大收益，从而给早期的参与者带来了可观的回报。