RVM：流動性分裂和短暫的敘述

在符文的數字世界中，野外最臭名昭著的掠奪性策略之一是“誘餌”。這項技術涉及利用毫無戒心的玩家的天真和貪婪，將他們深入危險的野外區域 - 高風險的球員與玩家（PVP）區 - 具有安全，利潤機會或商譽的虛假承諾。

In the vast digital realm of RuneScape, a notorious predatory tactic lurks within the Wild Area, known as "baiting." This cunning technique exploits the naivety and avarice of unsuspecting players, luring them deep into the perilous Wild Area - a high-stakes player-versus-player (PVP) zone - with false promises of safety, lucrative opportunities, or goodwill.

在Runescape的廣闊數字領域中，一種臭名昭著的掠奪性戰術潛伏在野外，被稱為“誘餌”。這種狡猾的技巧利用了毫無戒心的球員的天真和貪婪，將他們深入危險的野外區域（一個高風險的球員- 競爭者（PVP）區域），具有安全的諾言，有著安全的承諾，有利可圖的機會或善意。

The mechanic is simple yet effective. The inducer will pose as a helpful ally, offering an enticing reward or favor, carefully crafting a narrative to build trust and lower the victim's guard. Once the victim enters a wilderness area, the illusion is broken and the predator's true intentions are revealed - to ambush the target, strip them of their belongings, and leave them penniless.

機械師簡單而有效。誘導者將成為一個有益的盟友，提供誘人的獎勵或恩寵，仔細製作敘事以建立信任並降低受害者的警衛。一旦受害者進入曠野區域，幻覺就會破裂，捕食者的真實意圖被揭示出來 - 伏擊目標，剝奪他們的財產，並使他們一無所知。

This age-old tactic, born out of psychological manipulation and opportunism, is a great example of how social dynamics and trust can be weaponized in a zero-sum environment to extract value from others. It’s a profound warning: the promise of security or guaranteed returns often masks an asymmetric setup designed to benefit the initiator at the expense of the participant.

這種古老的策略源於心理操縱和機會主義，是一個很好的例子，說明如何在零和環境中將社會動態和信任武器武器化，從而從他人那裡提取價值。這是一個深刻的警告：安全或保證回報的承諾通常掩蓋了一種不對稱的設置，旨在以犧牲參與者為代價使發起人受益。

Market Status

市場狀況

Liquidity fragmentation and short-lived narratives

流動性分散和短暫的敘述

Too many projects and blockchains: The cryptocurrency ecosystem is rapidly expanding, covering multiple blockchains, protocols, and tokens. This explosive growth has seriously distracted traders, and a large number of new projects and "hot narratives" have emerged, competing for capital inflows. Each project and narrative is trying to gain a share of the limited market, but this competition has led to a fragmented market.

太多的項目和區塊鏈：加密貨幣生態系統正在迅速擴展，涵蓋了多個區塊鏈，協議和令牌。這種爆炸性的增長嚴重分散了交易者的注意力，大量新項目和“熱門敘事”出現了，爭奪資本流入。每個項目和敘述都試圖獲得有限市場的一部分，但是這項競爭導致了一個零散的市場。

High-speed liquidity rotation: Liquidity in the market is shifting from one "hot spot" to another at an unprecedented speed. Once a narrative loses its appeal, participants will quickly abandon it and pursue the next opportunity. This pattern leads to short-term surges and rapid declines in prices, forming "short-lived market" from which most traders fail to realize profits.

高速流動性旋轉：市場流動性以空前的速度從一個“熱點”轉移到另一個“熱點”。一旦敘述失去了吸引力，參與者將迅速放棄它並尋求下一個機會。這種模式導致短期浪潮和價格迅速下降，形成了“短暫的市場”，大多數交易者無法實現利潤。

Key conclusion: Due to the emergence of a large number of projects and the frequent rotation of liquidity, it is difficult for any single narrative to sustain long-term price increases, and traders need to pay more attention to liquidity dynamics.

關鍵結論：由於大量項目的出現和頻繁的流動性旋轉，任何單一敘述都很難維持長期價格上漲，而交易者需要更多地關注流動性動態。

Superposition of interests and differentiation of market sentiment

興趣疊加和市場情緒的差異

Incentive-driven opinion leaders: In the crypto market, key opinion leaders (KOLs) often promote projects based on their personal interests. They use social media to guide market sentiment and drive short-term popularity of projects. This behavior makes the market narrative lack consistency and further exacerbates the division of market sentiment.

激勵驅動的意見領導者：在加密貨幣市場中，主要意見領導者（KOLS）經常根據其個人利益來促進項目。他們使用社交媒體來指導市場情緒並推動項目的短期流行。這種行為使市場敘事缺乏一致性，並進一步加劇了市場情緒的分歧。

Split market signals: Current market sentiment is full of contradictions. On the one hand, some macroeconomic indicators seem to indicate the arrival of a "bull market"; on the other hand, retail traders generally lose money, and market sentiment appears extremely pessimistic. This inconsistency of signals increases market volatility and confuses traders even more.

市場信號：當前的市場情緒充滿了矛盾。一方面，一些宏觀經濟指標似乎表明了“牛市”的到來。另一方面，零售商人通常會虧錢，市場情緒似乎非常悲觀。信號的這種不一致會增加市場的波動，並使交易者更加困惑。

Key conclusion: Interest-driven rhetoric and conflicting signals in the market make the trading environment more complicated, and traders need to be wary of seemingly "authoritative" opinions.

關鍵結論：市場上以利益驅動的言論和衝突的信號使交易環境更加複雜，交易者需要警惕看似“權威”的意見。

Bitcoin trading and the phantom altcoin season

比特幣交易和幻影山幣季節

Seizing the Bitcoin Rise: In this round of the market, the traders who made the most money were concentrated in the early stages of Bitcoin's rise. They seized the opportunity to rise earlier than retail traders through precise timing. However, many retail investors were disappointed with Bitcoin's "low return expectations" and turned their funds to altcoins in an attempt to obtain higher returns.

抓住比特幣的上升：在這一輪市場中，賺錢最多的商人集中在比特幣上升的早期階段。他們通過精確的時機抓住了比零售商人早起的機會。但是，許多零售投資者對比特幣的“回報率低”感到失望，並將其資金轉變為Altcoins，以獲得更高的回報。

Misjudgment by retail traders: Retail traders tend to avoid Bitcoin, believing that its market capitalization is too high and its potential upside is limited. They try to find the "next Bitcoin" and put their money into altcoins with lower market capitalization but great potential. However, this strategy mostly fails as the expected "altcoin season" did not come as expected, leaving many people in deep losses.

零售商人的錯誤判斷：零售商人傾向於避免比特幣，因為它的市值太高，其潛在上升空間有限。他們試圖找到“下一個比特幣”，並將他們的資金投入較低的市值，但潛力較大。但是，這種策略主要是因為預期的“替代季節”未能達到預期，因此許多人遭受了深刻的損失。

Key takeaway: Professional traders have seen significant returns from Bitcoin’s rally, while retail traders have missed out by trying to bet on altcoins.

關鍵要點：專業交易員已經看到了比特幣集會的大筆回報，而零售商人試圖押注山寨幣，錯過了。

Solana vs Ethereum: Meme Tokens and Liquidity Traps

Solana vs以太坊：模因令牌和流動性陷阱

Short-lived meme craze: The popularity of meme tokens is represented by Pump.fun. Such platforms have spawned a series of new tokens that rely on hype and virality. These assets lack actual value support but attract a large amount of retail funds. This phenomenon is essentially a speculative cycle: early participants try to profit from subsequent capital inflows rather than based on the long-term development prospects of the project.

短暫的模因熱潮：模因令牌的受歡迎程度由pump.fun表示。這樣的平台產生了一系列依賴炒作和病毒性的新令牌。這些資產缺乏實際價值支持，但吸引了大量零售資金。這種現象本質上是一個投機性週期：早期參與者試圖從隨後的資本流入中獲利，而不是基於該項目的長期發展前景。

An open Ponzi scheme? The survival of Meme tokens depends on continued attention and increasing liquidity. Market participants generally recognize its speculative nature - building a position before others buy at a higher price, and this recognition creates a short-lived pump cycle.

開放的龐氏騙局？模因令牌的存活取決於繼續關注和增加流動性。市場參與者通常會認識到其投機性的性質 - 以更高的價格在其他人面前建立職位，而這種認可會產生短暫的泵週期。

Ethereum, the former king of Memes: Ethereum led the market frenzy with NFTs during the 2021 bull market cycle, and again achieved significant gains relative to Bitcoin through tokens such as $PEPE and $MOG in early 2024, bringing considerable returns to early participants.

以太坊是前模因之王：以太坊在2021年的牛市週期中以NFT的身份領先市場，並在2024年初通過$ PEPE和$ MOG等代幣獲得了相對於比特幣的巨大收益，從而給早期的參與者帶來了可觀的回報。