符文是无力偿债的：随着节点退出，储量减少和债务支架，索兰的原住民令牌坠毁了82％

自2024年12月10日快照以来，Thorchain的本地托管符文（Rune）处于自由落体，其价格下跌了82％。

The native token of THORChain, RUNE, has taken a nosedive since a snapshot was taken on December 10, 2024, with its price crashing down by 82%. A confluence of structural problems, dwindling protocol reserves, and escalating market doubt is exerting unprecedented downside pressure on the token, and this is probably one of the steepest declines we’ve seen in quite a while.

自2024年12月10日拍摄的快照以来，Thorchain的原住民令牌符文（Rune）却毫无疑问，其价格下跌了82％。结构性问题，协议储量减少以及市场疑问上升的汇合处在代币上施加了前所未有的下行压力，这可能是我们在很长一段时间内看到的最急剧下降之一。

The ongoing sell-off of RUNE can be traced to a few critical causes, including:

符文的持续抛售可以追溯到一些关键原因，包括：

– a rush of network nodes exiting,

- 一系列网络节点退出，

– a depletion of liquidity,

- 流动性耗尽，

– some key leadership figures leaving or being asked to leave, and

- 一些主要的领导人物离开或被要求离开，以及

– an apparent failure to resolve debt from the ThorFi lending program.

- 明显无法从Thorfi贷款计划中解决债务。

With the protocol now having come to a moment of crisis, the next 24 hours could determine whether it can recover or will continue to spiral downward.

随着该协议现在陷入危机时刻，接下来的24小时可以决定它是否可以恢复或继续向下旋转。

Network Stress and Liquidity Challenges Weigh on RUNE’s Price

网络压力和流动性挑战压力符文的价格

RUNE’s decline is primarily due to the exit of 26 nodes—roughly 20% of the total network. Concerns have arisen that the node exits could soon lead to around 20 million RUNE being sold into the market. Node exits almost always lead to downward price pressure as the exiting holders sell their tokens. And in this case, the nodes RUNE is losing are significant holders.

符文的下降主要是由于26个节点的退出，占总网络的20％。人们担心节点退出可能很快导致大约2000万个符文被出售到市场上。当退出持有人出售其令牌时，节点退出几乎总是导致价格压力。在这种情况下，节点符文丢失是重要的持有人。

$RUNE #RUNE #thorchain

$符文#rune #thorchain

**RUNE is insolvent.** They owe over $200 million, and their total market capitalization, currently at $1.4, stands at $450 million. This means that to repay their debt, they would need to sell 50% of the total supply at the current price, which is… pic.twitter.com/x1yNWbFhfX

**符文是无力偿债的。这意味着要偿还债务，他们需要以当前价格出售总供应的50％，即... pic.twitter.com/x1ynwbfhfx

— Crypto Nikko (@cryptonikkoid) February 1, 2025

- 2025年2月1日

Compounding this instability, TORChain’s trading assets have plummeted, with reserves falling from 50 BTC to a mere 10 BTC. This drop in liquidity leaves the protocol a sitting duck for maintaining price stability. And what’s worse, a liquidity pool half full of RUNE makes the market more susceptible to price swings that move the value of RUNE up and down a lot.

火鸡的交易资产使这种不稳定加剧了，储量从50 BTC降至仅10 BTC。这种流动性下降使协议坐着鸭子，以维持价格稳定。更糟糕的是，一个充满符文的流动性池使市场更容易受到价格波动的价格，这些价格波动会在上下移动符文的价值。

Concurrently, the differences between RUNE’s pricing on centralized exchanges (CEXs) and THORChain itself show tension within the system. A CEX price that significantly exceeds the THORChain price indicates that arbitrage trading is inefficient. The system looks less like a continuous sum of money and more like two distantly connected halves, which is exactly what makes things so stressful for investors who are confident that both halves should be “connected,” so to speak.

同时，符文在集中式交流（CEX）和胸腔本身之间的定价之间的差异在系统内显示出张力。明显超过胸切chain价格的CEX价格表明套利交易效率低下。该系统看起来不像是连续的金钱总和，更像是两个远距离连接的半部分，这正是使人们对那些有信心两半应该“连接”的投资者感到压力的原因，可以这么说。

Community Shake-Up and Growing Debt Concerns

社区的转移和日益增长的债务问题

When a key community leader for THORChain, known as @1984_is_today, announced that they had divested their RUNE holdings and exited the project, investor sentiment took yet another blow. This individual had been a well-known and well-loved figure advocating for the growth and development of THORChain, and their departure sent surprise and dismay throughout the community. Amid this panic, retail investors fled, and a sell-off accelerated.

当Thorchain的关键社区领导者（称为 @1984_is_today）宣布他们已经剥离了符文藏书并退出了该项目时，投资者的情绪又遭到了打击。这个人是一个著名且受欢迎的人物，倡导胸腔的成长和发展，他们的离开在整个社区中引起了惊喜和沮丧。在这种恐慌中，散户投资者逃离了，并加速了售罄。

The crisis is compounded by the unresolved debt from THORChain’s ThorFi lending program, which stands at over $200 million. Considering that the total market capitalization of THORChain is around $450 million, repaying this debt would require liquidating nearly half of RUNE’s total supply at current prices—a scenario that is almost certain to have disastrous consequences for the price of RUNE and, correspondingly, the overall health of THORChain.

Thorchain的Thorfi贷款计划未解决的债务使这一危机更加复杂，该计划超过2亿美元。考虑到Thorchain的总市值约为4.5亿美元，偿还这笔债务将需要以当前价格清算符文总供应量的一半 - 这种情况几乎可以肯定会对跑道的价格产生灾难性的后果，并且相应地是整体的情况胸切除的健康。

Why is $RUNE dumping?

为什么$符文倾倒？

➔ 26 nodes (~20%) are leaving, which could dump ~20M #RUNE into the market soon.

➔26个节点（约20％）即将离开，这可能很快将#Rune倒入市场。

➔ The protocol's trade assets dropped (50 BTC → 10 BTC), making it harder to keep prices stable.

➔协议的贸易资产下降（50 BTC→10 BTC），因此很难保持价格稳定。

➔ A key community leader (@1984_is-today) sold his RUNE and quit, causing… pic.twitter.com/jCTNa1AE2w

➔关键社区领袖（@1984_is-today）出售了他的符文并辞职，造成了……pic.twitter.com/jctna1ae2w

— Master of Crypto (@MasterCryptoHq) February 1, 2025

- 加密大师（@masterCryptOHQ）2025年2月1日

The debt burden threat is hanging over THORChain. In already fragile market conditions, this obviously creates more concern about the project’s future and its ability to recover. Will it be able to recover without the kinds of drastic interventions that tended to mar the DeFi space for much of 2022?

债务负担威胁悬挂在Thorchain上。在已经脆弱的市场条件下，这显然对项目的未来及其恢复能力更加关注。如果没有倾向于在2022年大部分时间内损害偏移空间的急剧干预措施的情况下，它是否能够恢复？

Validator Revenue Cuts Spark Backlash

验证者收入减少火花反弹

A recently suggested alteration to THORChain’s economic structure has further intensified disputes. The suggestion seeks to lower validator earnings by a significant amount, and it has been met with strong reaction from network participants. Even though many validators are already dealing with the tragicomic financial situation caused by RUNE’s price collapse, this proposal could impact even more validators should it move to implementation

最近建议改变胸切chain的经济结构的变化进一步加剧了争议。该建议旨在减少验证者的收入大量，并且已经得到网络参与者的强烈反应。即使许多验证者已经在处理由符文的价格崩溃引起的悲惨财务状况