符文是無力償債的：隨著節點退出，儲量減少和債務支架，索蘭的原住民令牌墜毀了82％

自2024年12月10日快照以來，Thorchain的本地託管符文（Rune）處於自由落體，其價格下跌了82％。

The native token of THORChain, RUNE, has taken a nosedive since a snapshot was taken on December 10, 2024, with its price crashing down by 82%. A confluence of structural problems, dwindling protocol reserves, and escalating market doubt is exerting unprecedented downside pressure on the token, and this is probably one of the steepest declines we’ve seen in quite a while.

自2024年12月10日拍攝的快照以來，Thorchain的原住民令牌符文（Rune）卻毫無疑問，其價格下跌了82％。結構性問題，協議儲量減少以及市場疑問上升的匯合處在代幣上施加了前所未有的下行壓力，這可能是我們在很長一段時間內看到的最急劇下降之一。

The ongoing sell-off of RUNE can be traced to a few critical causes, including:

符文的持續拋售可以追溯到一些關鍵原因，包括：

– a rush of network nodes exiting,

- 一系列網絡節點退出，

– a depletion of liquidity,

- 流動性耗盡，

– some key leadership figures leaving or being asked to leave, and

- 一些主要的領導人物離開或被要求離開，以及

– an apparent failure to resolve debt from the ThorFi lending program.

- 明顯無法從Thorfi貸款計劃中解決債務。

With the protocol now having come to a moment of crisis, the next 24 hours could determine whether it can recover or will continue to spiral downward.

隨著該協議現在陷入危機時刻，接下來的24小時可以決定它是否可以恢復或繼續向下旋轉。

Network Stress and Liquidity Challenges Weigh on RUNE’s Price

網絡壓力和流動性挑戰壓力符文的價格

RUNE’s decline is primarily due to the exit of 26 nodes—roughly 20% of the total network. Concerns have arisen that the node exits could soon lead to around 20 million RUNE being sold into the market. Node exits almost always lead to downward price pressure as the exiting holders sell their tokens. And in this case, the nodes RUNE is losing are significant holders.

符文的下降主要是由於26個節點的退出，佔總網絡的20％。人們擔心節點退出可能很快導致大約2000萬個符文被出售到市場上。當退出持有人出售其令牌時，節點退出幾乎總是導致價格壓力。在這種情況下，節點符文丟失是重要的持有人。

$RUNE #RUNE #thorchain

$符文#rune #thorchain

**RUNE is insolvent.** They owe over $200 million, and their total market capitalization, currently at $1.4, stands at $450 million. This means that to repay their debt, they would need to sell 50% of the total supply at the current price, which is… pic.twitter.com/x1yNWbFhfX

**符文是無力償債的。這意味著要償還債務，他們需要以當前價格出售總供應的50％，即... pic.twitter.com/x1ynwbfhfx

— Crypto Nikko (@cryptonikkoid) February 1, 2025

- 2025年2月1日

Compounding this instability, TORChain’s trading assets have plummeted, with reserves falling from 50 BTC to a mere 10 BTC. This drop in liquidity leaves the protocol a sitting duck for maintaining price stability. And what’s worse, a liquidity pool half full of RUNE makes the market more susceptible to price swings that move the value of RUNE up and down a lot.

火雞的交易資產使這種不穩定加劇了，儲量從50 BTC降至僅10 BTC。這種流動性下降使協議坐著鴨子，以維持價格穩定。更糟糕的是，一個充滿符文的流動性池使市場更容易受到價格波動的價格，這些價格波動會在上下移動符文的價值。

Concurrently, the differences between RUNE’s pricing on centralized exchanges (CEXs) and THORChain itself show tension within the system. A CEX price that significantly exceeds the THORChain price indicates that arbitrage trading is inefficient. The system looks less like a continuous sum of money and more like two distantly connected halves, which is exactly what makes things so stressful for investors who are confident that both halves should be “connected,” so to speak.

同時，符文在集中式交流（CEX）和胸腔本身之間的定價之間的差異在系統內顯示出張力。明顯超過胸切chain價格的CEX價格表明套利交易效率低下。該系統看起來不像是連續的金錢總和，更像是兩個遠距離連接的半部分，這正是使人們對那些有信心兩半應該“連接”的投資者感到壓力的原因，可以這麼說。

Community Shake-Up and Growing Debt Concerns

社區的轉移和日益增長的債務問題

When a key community leader for THORChain, known as @1984_is_today, announced that they had divested their RUNE holdings and exited the project, investor sentiment took yet another blow. This individual had been a well-known and well-loved figure advocating for the growth and development of THORChain, and their departure sent surprise and dismay throughout the community. Amid this panic, retail investors fled, and a sell-off accelerated.

當Thorchain的關鍵社區領導者（稱為 @1984_is_today）宣布他們已經剝離了符文藏書並退出了該項目時，投資者的情緒又遭到了打擊。這個人是一個著名且受歡迎的人物，倡導胸腔的成長和發展，他們的離開在整個社區中引起了驚喜和沮喪。在這種恐慌中，散戶投資者逃離了，並加速了售罄。

The crisis is compounded by the unresolved debt from THORChain’s ThorFi lending program, which stands at over $200 million. Considering that the total market capitalization of THORChain is around $450 million, repaying this debt would require liquidating nearly half of RUNE’s total supply at current prices—a scenario that is almost certain to have disastrous consequences for the price of RUNE and, correspondingly, the overall health of THORChain.

Thorchain的Thorfi貸款計劃未解決的債務使這一危機更加複雜，該計劃超過2億美元。考慮到Thorchain的總市值約為4.5億美元，償還這筆債務將需要以當前價格清算符文總供應量的一半- 這種情況幾乎可以肯定會對跑道的價格產生災難性的後果，並且相應地是整體的情況胸切除的健康。

Why is $RUNE dumping?

為什麼$符文傾倒？

➔ 26 nodes (~20%) are leaving, which could dump ~20M #RUNE into the market soon.

➔26個節點（約20％）即將離開，這可能很快將#Rune倒入市場。

➔ The protocol's trade assets dropped (50 BTC → 10 BTC), making it harder to keep prices stable.

➔協議的貿易資產下降（50 BTC→10 BTC），因此很難保持價格穩定。

➔ A key community leader (@1984_is-today) sold his RUNE and quit, causing… pic.twitter.com/jCTNa1AE2w

➔關鍵社區領袖（@1984_is-today）出售了他的符文並辭職，造成了……pic.twitter.com/jctna1ae2w

— Master of Crypto (@MasterCryptoHq) February 1, 2025

- 加密大師（@masterCryptOHQ）2025年2月1日

The debt burden threat is hanging over THORChain. In already fragile market conditions, this obviously creates more concern about the project’s future and its ability to recover. Will it be able to recover without the kinds of drastic interventions that tended to mar the DeFi space for much of 2022?

債務負擔威脅懸掛在Thorchain上。在已經脆弱的市場條件下，這顯然對項目的未來及其恢復能力更加關注。如果沒有傾向於在2022年大部分時間內損害偏移空間的急劇干預措施的情況下，它是否能夠恢復？

Validator Revenue Cuts Spark Backlash

驗證者收入減少火花反彈

A recently suggested alteration to THORChain’s economic structure has further intensified disputes. The suggestion seeks to lower validator earnings by a significant amount, and it has been met with strong reaction from network participants. Even though many validators are already dealing with the tragicomic financial situation caused by RUNE’s price collapse, this proposal could impact even more validators should it move to implementation

最近建議改變胸切chain的經濟結構的變化進一步加劇了爭議。該建議旨在減少驗證者的收入大量，並且已經得到網絡參與者的強烈反應。即使許多驗證者已經在處理由符文的價格崩潰引起的悲慘財務狀況