著名交易员对比特币牛市的可持续性表示担忧

著名交易员彼得·布兰特质疑比特币当前牛市周期的可持续性，理由是之前周期中观察到的势头正在减弱。 Brandt 预测潜在峰值为 72,723 美元，交易中已经达到该峰值。他推测价格可能回撤至 30,000 美元中间区间，甚至重新回到 2021 年低点，同时承认这种调整的长期潜在看涨影响。

Renowned Trader Questions Sustainability of Bitcoin's Bullish Run

著名交易员质疑比特币看涨走势的可持续性

In a comprehensive analysis released on June 12, 2023, renowned trader Peter Brandt raised concerns about the longevity of Bitcoin's ongoing bullish market cycle. Brandt's analysis, titled "Does History Make a Case That Bitcoin Has Topped?", meticulously examines historical price patterns and identifies a concerning trend that suggests diminishing momentum over time.

在 2023 年 6 月 12 日发布的综合分析中，著名交易员 Peter Brandt 对比特币持续看涨市场周期的持续时间提出了担忧。布兰特的分析题为“历史是否证明比特币已经见顶？”，仔细研究了历史价格模式，并确定了一个令人担忧的趋势，表明随着时间的推移，势头正在减弱。

Brandt's analysis reveals four distinct bull cycles in Bitcoin's history, with the current surge marking the fifth. However, he notes a troubling pattern: each successive cycle has experienced a decrease in exponential advances, with each cycle losing approximately 80% of the momentum from the previous one.

布兰特的分析揭示了比特币历史上的四个不同的牛市周期，当前的飙升标志着第五个。然而，他指出了一个令人不安的模式：每个连续的周期都经历了指数增长的下降，每个周期都比前一个周期失去了大约 80% 的动力。

Applying this trend to the current cycle, Brandt projects a potential peak of around $72,723, a level that has already been reached in recent trading activity. Despite the impact of halving events on Bitcoin's price, Brandt emphasizes the sobering reality of exponential decay, suggesting a 25% chance that Bitcoin may have already reached its peak for this cycle.

将这一趋势应用于当前周期，Brandt 预计潜在峰值约为 72,723 美元，这是最近交易活动中已经达到的水平。尽管减半事件对比特币价格产生了影响，但布兰特强调了指数衰减的严峻现实，表明比特币有 25% 的可能性已经达到本周期的峰值。

In the event of a market top, Brandt speculates on potential price retracements, foreseeing a decline to the mid-$30,000 range per BTC or even a revisit to lows from 2021. However, he views such a correction as potentially bullish in the long term, drawing parallels to similar chart patterns observed in the gold market.

如果市场见顶，Brandt 推测价格可能会回调，预计每 BTC 会跌至 30,000 美元左右的区间，甚至会回到 2021 年以来的低点。不过，他认为这种调整从长期来看可能是看涨的，与黄金市场中观察到的类似图表模式相似。

Brandt's analysis underscores the significance of data-driven analysis in understanding cryptocurrency market trends. His examination of historical price cycles provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of Bitcoin's market cycles, highlighting the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.

布兰特的分析强调了数据驱动分析在理解加密货币市场趋势方面的重要性。他对历史价格周期的研究为比特币市场周期的动态演变提供了宝贵的见解，强调了与投资加密货币相关的潜在风险和回报。

Diminishing Momentum in Bull Cycles

牛市周期动力减弱

Brandt's analysis pinpoints four significant bull cycles in Bitcoin's history, each characterized by a rapid increase in price followed by a period of consolidation or correction. The first cycle, from July 2010 to June 2011, saw Bitcoin rise from $0.08 to $32 before correcting to $2. The second cycle, from April 2013 to December 2013, witnessed a surge from $13 to $1,242, followed by a decline to $200.

布兰特的分析指出了比特币历史上的四个重要的牛市周期，每个周期的特点都是价格快速上涨，随后是一段时间的盘整或调整。第一个周期是从 2010 年 7 月到 2011 年 6 月，比特币从 0.08 美元上涨到 32 美元，然后回调到 2 美元。第二个周期是2013年4月至2013年12月，价格从13美元飙升至1,242美元，随后又下跌至200美元。

The third cycle, from January 2015 to December 2017, saw Bitcoin climb from $175 to $19,783 before falling to $3,122. The fourth cycle, from December 2018 to April 2021, witnessed a recovery from $3,122 to $64,804, followed by a correction to $28,800.

第三个周期是从 2015 年 1 月到 2017 年 12 月，比特币从 175 美元攀升至 19,783 美元，然后跌至 3,122 美元。第四个周期是从 2018 年 12 月到 2021 年 4 月，从 3,122 美元回升至 64,804 美元，随后修正至 28,800 美元。

Speculations on Market Top

对市场顶部的猜测

Brandt's analysis suggests that the current cycle, which began in July 2021, may have reached its peak or be approaching it. He projects a potential range for a market top between $65,000 and $75,000, based on the diminishing momentum observed in previous cycles.

Brandt 的分析表明，自 2021 年 7 月开始的当前周期可能已达到顶峰或正在接近顶峰。根据之前周期中观察到的减弱势头，他预计市场顶部的潜在区间将在 65,000 美元至 75,000 美元之间。

In the event of a market top, Brandt anticipates a correction, potentially reaching the mid-$30,000 range per BTC or even revisiting lows from 2021. However, he views such a correction as a potential buying opportunity, drawing parallels to similar chart patterns observed in the gold market, where corrections have historically been followed by renewed upward momentum.

如果市场见顶，Brandt 预计将出现调整，每 BTC 可能会达到 30,000 美元的中间区间，甚至会重新回到 2021 年以来的低点。然而，他认为这种调整是一个潜在的买入机会，这与在黄金市场，历来在调整之后都会出现新的上行势头。

Implications for Investors

对投资者的影响

Brandt's analysis provides valuable insights for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market. By understanding the historical patterns and dynamics of Bitcoin's market cycles, investors can make informed decisions about their investment strategies and risk management.

布兰特的分析为寻求应对加密货币市场复杂性的投资者提供了宝贵的见解。通过了解比特币市场周期的历史模式和动态，投资者可以就其投资策略和风险管理做出明智的决策。

Brandt's analysis emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making and highlights the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. Investors should carefully consider their financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon before making any decisions.

布兰特的分析强调了数据驱动决策的重要性，并强调了与投资加密货币相关的潜在风险和回报。投资者在做出任何决定之前应仔细考虑他们的财务目标、风险承受能力和投资期限。