著名交易員對比特幣牛市的可持續性表示擔憂

著名交易員彼得·布蘭特質疑比特幣當前牛市週期的可持續性，理由是先前週期中觀察到的勢頭正在減弱。 Brandt 預測潛在高峰為 72,723 美元，交易中已達到該高峰。他推測價格可能回撤至 3 萬美元中間區間，甚至重新回到 2021 年低點，同時承認這種調整的長期潛在看漲影響。

Renowned Trader Questions Sustainability of Bitcoin's Bullish Run

著名交易員質疑比特幣看漲走勢的可持續性

In a comprehensive analysis released on June 12, 2023, renowned trader Peter Brandt raised concerns about the longevity of Bitcoin's ongoing bullish market cycle. Brandt's analysis, titled "Does History Make a Case That Bitcoin Has Topped?", meticulously examines historical price patterns and identifies a concerning trend that suggests diminishing momentum over time.

在 2023 年 6 月 12 日發布的綜合分析中，著名交易員 Peter Brandt 對比特幣持續看漲市場週期的持續時間提出了擔憂。布蘭特的分析題為“歷史是否證明比特幣已經見頂？”，仔細研究了歷史價格模式，並確定了一個令人擔憂的趨勢，表明隨著時間的推移，勢頭正在減弱。

Brandt's analysis reveals four distinct bull cycles in Bitcoin's history, with the current surge marking the fifth. However, he notes a troubling pattern: each successive cycle has experienced a decrease in exponential advances, with each cycle losing approximately 80% of the momentum from the previous one.

布蘭特的分析揭示了比特幣歷史上的四個不同的牛市週期，當前的飆升標誌著第五個。然而，他指出了一個令人不安的模式：每個連續的週期都經歷了指數增長的下降，每個週期都比前一個週期失去了約 80% 的動力。

Applying this trend to the current cycle, Brandt projects a potential peak of around $72,723, a level that has already been reached in recent trading activity. Despite the impact of halving events on Bitcoin's price, Brandt emphasizes the sobering reality of exponential decay, suggesting a 25% chance that Bitcoin may have already reached its peak for this cycle.

將這一趨勢應用於當前週期，Brandt 預計潛在高峰約為 72,723 美元，這是最近交易活動中已經達到的水平。儘管減半事件對比特幣價格產生了影響，但布蘭特強調了指數衰減的嚴峻現實，表明比特幣有 25% 的可能性已經達到本週期的峰值。

In the event of a market top, Brandt speculates on potential price retracements, foreseeing a decline to the mid-$30,000 range per BTC or even a revisit to lows from 2021. However, he views such a correction as potentially bullish in the long term, drawing parallels to similar chart patterns observed in the gold market.

如果市場見頂，Brandt 推測價格可能會回調，預計每BTC 會跌至30,000 美元左右的區間，甚至會回到2021 年以來的低點。 ，與黃金市場中觀察到的類似圖表模式相似。

Brandt's analysis underscores the significance of data-driven analysis in understanding cryptocurrency market trends. His examination of historical price cycles provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of Bitcoin's market cycles, highlighting the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.

布蘭特的分析強調了數據驅動分析在理解加密貨幣市場趨勢的重要性。他對歷史價格週期的研究為比特幣市場週期的動態演變提供了寶貴的見解，強調了與投資加密貨幣相關的潛在風險和回報。

Diminishing Momentum in Bull Cycles

牛市週期動力減弱

Brandt's analysis pinpoints four significant bull cycles in Bitcoin's history, each characterized by a rapid increase in price followed by a period of consolidation or correction. The first cycle, from July 2010 to June 2011, saw Bitcoin rise from $0.08 to $32 before correcting to $2. The second cycle, from April 2013 to December 2013, witnessed a surge from $13 to $1,242, followed by a decline to $200.

布蘭特的分析指出了比特幣歷史上的四個重要的牛市週期，每個週期的特點都是價格快速上漲，隨後是一段時間的盤整或調整。第一個週期是從 2010 年 7 月到 2011 年 6 月，比特幣從 0.08 美元上漲到 32 美元，然後回調到 2 美元。第二個週期是2013年4月至2013年12月，價格從13美元飆升至1,242美元，隨後又下跌至200美元。

The third cycle, from January 2015 to December 2017, saw Bitcoin climb from $175 to $19,783 before falling to $3,122. The fourth cycle, from December 2018 to April 2021, witnessed a recovery from $3,122 to $64,804, followed by a correction to $28,800.

第三個週期是從 2015 年 1 月到 2017 年 12 月，比特幣從 175 美元攀升至 19,783 美元，然後跌至 3,122 美元。第四個週期是從 2018 年 12 月到 2021 年 4 月，從 3,122 美元回升至 64,804 美元，隨後修正至 28,800 美元。

Speculations on Market Top

對市場頂部的猜測

Brandt's analysis suggests that the current cycle, which began in July 2021, may have reached its peak or be approaching it. He projects a potential range for a market top between $65,000 and $75,000, based on the diminishing momentum observed in previous cycles.

Brandt 的分析表明，自 2021 年 7 月開始的當前週期可能已達到頂峰或正在接近頂峰。根據先前週期中觀察到的減弱勢頭，他預計市場頂部的潛在區間將在 65,000 美元至 75,000 美元之間。

In the event of a market top, Brandt anticipates a correction, potentially reaching the mid-$30,000 range per BTC or even revisiting lows from 2021. However, he views such a correction as a potential buying opportunity, drawing parallels to similar chart patterns observed in the gold market, where corrections have historically been followed by renewed upward momentum.

如果市場見頂，Brandt 預計將出現調整，每BTC 可能會達到30,000 美元的中間區間，甚至會重新回到2021 年以來的低點。與在黃金市場，歷來在調整之後都會出現新的上行動能。

Implications for Investors

對投資者的影響

Brandt's analysis provides valuable insights for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market. By understanding the historical patterns and dynamics of Bitcoin's market cycles, investors can make informed decisions about their investment strategies and risk management.

布蘭特的分析為尋求應對加密貨幣市場複雜性的投資者提供了寶貴的見解。透過了解比特幣市場週期的歷史模式和動態，投資者可以就其投資策略和風險管理做出明智的決策。

Brandt's analysis emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making and highlights the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. Investors should carefully consider their financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon before making any decisions.

布蘭特的分析強調了數據驅動決策的重要性，並強調了與投資加密貨幣相關的潛在風險和回報。投資者在做出任何決定之前應仔細考慮他們的財務目標、風險承受能力和投資期限。