贝莱德（BlackRock）的数字资产负责人说，经济衰退可能是催化剂比特币需要突破

贝莱德（BlackRock）的数字资产负责人罗比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）最近与雅虎金融（Yahoo Finance）进行了交谈，他说，经济衰退将是比特币蓬勃发展的适当机会。

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, discussed the possibility of a recession and how it could impact Bitcoin (BTC).

在最近接受Yahoo Finance的采访中，BlackRock数字资产负责人Robbie Mitchnick讨论了经济衰退的可能性及其可能影响比特币（BTC）的可能性。

Mitchnick said he wasn’t sure if a recession was coming but that the economic conditions that are usually associated with a recession would serve as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）说，他不确定是否会衰退，但通常与经济衰退相关的经济状况将成为比特币增长的强大催化剂。

“If you look at bitcoin fundamentally on a long-term basis, it really seems like an asset that should be uncorrelated or even inversely correlated against certain risk factors that exist,” Mitchnick said.

米奇尼克说：“如果您长期从根本上看比特币，那么它似乎确实是一种资产，应该与存在的某些危险因素无关，甚至与现有的某些危险因素相关。”

“So, if you look at the way that bonds typically rally in a recession, equities go down, and then bitcoin should be performing well in that environment.”

“因此，如果您查看通常在经济衰退中召集的纽带的方式，股票下降，然后比特币在那种环境中表现良好。”

If so, what’s the best crypto to buy right now? Could exciting new projects like BTC Bull Token ( $BTCBULL ), Meme Index Token ( $MEMEX ), and PancakeSwap ( $CAKE ) ride the crypto upswing to see some sensational returns?Recession a Catalyst for a Bitcoin Breakout

如果是这样，现在最好购买的加密货币是什么？令人兴奋的新项目，例如BTC Bull Token（$ btcbull），Meme Index Token（$ MEMEX）和PANCAKESWAP（$ CAKE）乘坐加密货币上升以看到一些轰动的回报？

Mitchnick’s comments come after Coinbase also touched upon the possibility of a crypto market recovery in Q2, 2025, especially if the US economy slides into a recession.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）的评论发表在Coinbase还涉及2025年第二季度加密货币市场复苏的可能性之后，尤其是如果美国经济陷入衰退。

With recovering liquidity and reduced interest rates, combined with positive regulatory movements, setting the stage for a potential crypto market recovery in Q2, 2025, especially if the US economy slides into a recession, according to Coinbase’s Monthly Outlook.

恢复流动性和降低的利率，再加上积极的监管运动，为2025年第二季度的加密货币市场恢复奠定了基础，尤其是如果美国经济陷入了经济衰退。

As the interview with Mitchnick focused on the role of a potential recession in 2025, it's worth noting that the interviewer, part of the Yahoo Finance team, appeared to be referring to the U.S. economy.

当对米奇尼克（Mitchnick）的采访重点关注2025年潜在衰退的作用时，值得注意的是，雅虎财务团队的一部分面试官似乎是指美国经济。

This is significant because, despite positive contributions from crypto to emerging markets, a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2024, highlighted the potential implications of a U.S. recession for the global economy.

这很重要，因为尽管加密货币对新兴市场的积极贡献，但国际货币基金组织（IMF）于2024年4月提出的一份报告强调了美国衰退对全球经济的潜在影响。

According to the IMF, a mild recession in the U.S. during the second half of 2024 could lead to a 0.6 percentage point reduction in global GDP growth in 2024, and a 0.6 percentage point reduction in 2025, from the baseline forecast of 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively.

根据国际货币基金组织的数据，在2024年下半年，美国的轻度衰退可能导致2024年全球GDP增长的0.6个百分点，而2025年的0.6个百分点降低了，比基线预测分别为2.8％和2.7％。

However, a more severe U.S. recession, defined as a 1.5 percentage point decline in output from the second quarter of 2024, could have a greater impact, leading to a 1 percentage point reduction in global GDP growth in 2024, and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in 2025.

但是，从2024年第二季度起，美国衰退定义为1.5个百分点的下降，可能会产生更大的影响，从而导致2024年全球GDP增长的1个百分点降低，而2025年降低了0.5个百分点。

The report also noted that output in the euro area and Japan would be directly affected by spillovers from the U.S., while emerging market and developing economies would be affected to a lesser extent due to the smaller weight of the U.S. in their portfolio.

该报告还指出，欧元区和日本的产量将直接受到美国溢出的影响，而新兴市场和发展中经济体的影响将在较小程度上受到影响，因为美国投资组合中美国的重量较小。

Despite this, emerging market and developing economies would still experience a slowdown in growth due to weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions.

尽管如此，由于外部需求和更严格的财务状况，新兴市场和发展中的经济体仍然会遭受增长放缓。

In the interview, Mitchnick went on to discuss how the typical catalysts for Bitcoin, such as a strong stock market, a weak bond market, and a strong dollar, would usually spell bad news for the wider economy.

在采访中，米奇尼克（Mitchnick）继续讨论比特币的典型催化剂（例如强大的股票市场，债券市场疲软和强劲的美元）如何给更广泛的经济带来坏消息。

However, he argued that these conditions are usually associated with a recession, which is something that would favor Bitcoin.

但是，他认为这些条件通常与经济衰退有关，这是有利于比特币的东西。

“If you look at the optimal conditions for bitcoin, it’s usually when equities are struggling, bonds are doing well, and the dollar is strong, which is a recipe for a recession,” he stated.

他说：“如果您查看比特币的最佳条件，通常是在股票挣扎，债券状况良好的情况下，债券状况良好，美元很强，这是经济衰退的秘诀。”

“And if you look at the periods in history where we’ve had a recession, it’s usually in the second year of a president’s term, which again, if you look at the last four to five periods of a recession, it seems to be around about now.”

“而且，如果您查看我们经济衰退的历史时期，通常是在总统任期的第二年，如果您再次查看经济衰退的最后四到五个时期，它似乎现在就出现了。”

The plan:

计划：

dump $BTC at 90k

dump $ btc在90k

be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market.

他妈的耐心。 $ btc的价格可能是$ 70K左右。 36％的校正，从$ 110K ATH，牛市正常v n frorm。

then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall.

然后，我们需要stonks，$ spx和$ ndx才能进入免费秋季。

then we need TradFi muppet to go under.

然后，我们需要tradfi muppet才能下来。

THEN we get fed, pboc, ecb, boj all easing to make 2025 the worst year ever for anything other than stonks and crypto.

然后，我们被喂食，PBOC，欧洲央行，Boj都放松了，使2025年成为有史以来最糟糕的一年，除了Stonks和Crypto以外。

people will be broke, no jobs, no food. but at least $btc will be 500k.

人们会破产，没有工作，没有食物。但是至少$ btc将为50万。

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 11, 2.5

- 亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）（@cryptohayes）3月11日，2.5