貝萊德（BlackRock）的數字資產負責人說，經濟衰退可能是催化劑比特幣需要突破

貝萊德（BlackRock）的數字資產負責人羅比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）最近與雅虎金融（Yahoo Finance）進行了交談，他說，經濟衰退將是比特幣蓬勃發展的適當機會。

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, discussed the possibility of a recession and how it could impact Bitcoin (BTC).

在最近接受Yahoo Finance的採訪中，BlackRock數字資產負責人Robbie Mitchnick討論了經濟衰退的可能性及其可能影響比特幣（BTC）的可能性。

Mitchnick said he wasn’t sure if a recession was coming but that the economic conditions that are usually associated with a recession would serve as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）說，他不確定是否會衰退，但通常與經濟衰退相關的經濟狀況將成為比特幣增長的強大催化劑。

“If you look at bitcoin fundamentally on a long-term basis, it really seems like an asset that should be uncorrelated or even inversely correlated against certain risk factors that exist,” Mitchnick said.

米奇尼克說：“如果您長期從根本上看比特幣，那麼它似乎確實是一種資產，應該與存在的某些危險因素無關，甚至與現有的某些危險因素相關。”

“So, if you look at the way that bonds typically rally in a recession, equities go down, and then bitcoin should be performing well in that environment.”

“因此，如果您查看通常在經濟衰退中召集的紐帶的方式，股票下降，然後比特幣在那種環境中表現良好。”

If so, what’s the best crypto to buy right now? Could exciting new projects like BTC Bull Token ( $BTCBULL ), Meme Index Token ( $MEMEX ), and PancakeSwap ( $CAKE ) ride the crypto upswing to see some sensational returns?Recession a Catalyst for a Bitcoin Breakout

如果是這樣，現在最好購買的加密貨幣是什麼？令人興奮的新項目，例如BTC Bull Token（$ btcbull），Meme Index Token（$ MEMEX）和PANCAKESWAP（$ CAKE）乘坐加密貨幣上升以看到一些轟動的回報？

Mitchnick’s comments come after Coinbase also touched upon the possibility of a crypto market recovery in Q2, 2025, especially if the US economy slides into a recession.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）的評論發表在Coinbase還涉及2025年第二季度加密貨幣市場復甦的可能性之後，尤其是如果美國經濟陷入衰退。

With recovering liquidity and reduced interest rates, combined with positive regulatory movements, setting the stage for a potential crypto market recovery in Q2, 2025, especially if the US economy slides into a recession, according to Coinbase’s Monthly Outlook.

恢復流動性和降低的利率，再加上積極的監管運動，為2025年第二季度的加密貨幣市場恢復奠定了基礎，尤其是如果美國經濟陷入了經濟衰退。

As the interview with Mitchnick focused on the role of a potential recession in 2025, it's worth noting that the interviewer, part of the Yahoo Finance team, appeared to be referring to the U.S. economy.

當對米奇尼克（Mitchnick）的採訪重點關注2025年潛在衰退的作用時，值得注意的是，雅虎財務團隊的一部分面試官似乎是指美國經濟。

This is significant because, despite positive contributions from crypto to emerging markets, a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2024, highlighted the potential implications of a U.S. recession for the global economy.

這很重要，因為儘管加密貨幣對新興市場的積極貢獻，但國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）於2024年4月提出的一份報告強調了美國衰退對全球經濟的潛在影響。

According to the IMF, a mild recession in the U.S. during the second half of 2024 could lead to a 0.6 percentage point reduction in global GDP growth in 2024, and a 0.6 percentage point reduction in 2025, from the baseline forecast of 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively.

根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，在2024年下半年，美國的輕度衰退可能導致2024年全球GDP增長的0.6個百分點，而2025年的0.6個百分點降低了，比基線預測分別為2.8％和2.7％。

However, a more severe U.S. recession, defined as a 1.5 percentage point decline in output from the second quarter of 2024, could have a greater impact, leading to a 1 percentage point reduction in global GDP growth in 2024, and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in 2025.

但是，從2024年第二季度起，美國衰退定義為1.5個百分點的下降，可能會產生更大的影響，從而導致2024年全球GDP增長的1個百分點降低，而2025年降低了0.5個百分點。

The report also noted that output in the euro area and Japan would be directly affected by spillovers from the U.S., while emerging market and developing economies would be affected to a lesser extent due to the smaller weight of the U.S. in their portfolio.

該報告還指出，歐元區和日本的產量將直接受到美國溢出的影響，而新興市場和發展中經濟體的影響將在較小程度上受到影響，因為美國投資組合中美國的重量較小。

Despite this, emerging market and developing economies would still experience a slowdown in growth due to weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions.

儘管如此，由於外部需求和更嚴格的財務狀況，新興市場和發展中的經濟體仍然會遭受增長放緩。

In the interview, Mitchnick went on to discuss how the typical catalysts for Bitcoin, such as a strong stock market, a weak bond market, and a strong dollar, would usually spell bad news for the wider economy.

在採訪中，米奇尼克（Mitchnick）繼續討論比特幣的典型催化劑（例如強大的股票市場，債券市場疲軟和強勁的美元）如何給更廣泛的經濟帶來壞消息。

However, he argued that these conditions are usually associated with a recession, which is something that would favor Bitcoin.

但是，他認為這些條件通常與經濟衰退有關，這是有利於比特幣的東西。

“If you look at the optimal conditions for bitcoin, it’s usually when equities are struggling, bonds are doing well, and the dollar is strong, which is a recipe for a recession,” he stated.

他說：“如果您查看比特幣的最佳條件，通常是在股票掙扎，債券狀況良好的情況下，債券狀況良好，美元很強，這是經濟衰退的秘訣。”

“And if you look at the periods in history where we’ve had a recession, it’s usually in the second year of a president’s term, which again, if you look at the last four to five periods of a recession, it seems to be around about now.”

“而且，如果您查看我們經濟衰退的歷史時期，通常是在總統任期的第二年，如果您再次查看經濟衰退的最後四到五個時期，它似乎現在就出現了。”

The plan:

計劃：

dump $BTC at 90k

dump $ btc在90k

be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market.

他媽的耐心。 $ btc的價格可能是$ 70K左右。 36％的校正，從$ 110K ATH，牛市正常v n frorm。

then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall.

然後，我們需要stonks，$ spx和$ ndx才能進入免費秋季。

then we need TradFi muppet to go under.

然後，我們需要tradfi muppet才能下來。

THEN we get fed, pboc, ecb, boj all easing to make 2025 the worst year ever for anything other than stonks and crypto.

然後，我們被餵食，PBOC，歐洲央行，Boj都放鬆了，使2025年成為有史以來最糟糕的一年，除了Stonks和Crypto以外。

people will be broke, no jobs, no food. but at least $btc will be 500k.

人們會破產，沒有工作，沒有食物。但是至少$ btc將為50萬。

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 11, 2.5

- 亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）（@cryptohayes）3月11日，2.5