加密市场今天崩溃的真正原因：比特币与altcoin分析

从市场面临急剧纠正的情况下，从一个有希望的一周开始，加密货币的一周迅速变成了失望。

What started as a promising week for cryptocurrency quickly turned into disappointment as the market faced a sharp correction. Bitcoin had climbed above $88,000 and Ethereum was approaching $2,100, initially sparking hope for further gains. However, the good times were short-lived as crypto encountered some difficulties, leading to a downturn.

从市场面临急剧纠正的情况下，从一个有希望的一周开始，加密货币的一周迅速变成了失望。比特币攀升了88,000美元以上，以太坊接近2,100美元，最初引发了人们的希望。但是，由于加密货币遇到了一些困难，因此美好的时光是短暂的，导致了衰退。

In his latest analysis video, Brian from Santiment Network, which boasts over 13,000 YouTube subscribers, breaks down what’s causing the current market slump.

Santiment Network的最新分析视频Brian在拥有13,000多个YouTube订户的Brian中打破了当前市场衰退的原因。

The downturn appears to be driven by renewed inflation concerns and growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Canada, which could lead to increased trade barriers. Crypto analysts are debating whether digital assets are simply following traditional markets down due to macroeconomic factors, or if they’re developing their own independent patterns in this environment.

下滑似乎是由通货膨胀的重新关注以及美国和加拿大之间的地缘政治紧张局势越来越多的驱动的，这可能会导致贸易障碍的增加。加密分析师正在辩论，由于宏观经济因素，数字资产是否仅仅是在传统市场下降，还是在这种环境中开发自己的独立模式。

Despite the volatility, Bitcoin managed to finish the week up 1.7%, showcasing relative strength compared to its peers. Ethereum didn’t fare as well, dropping below $1,900 and posting a loss of about 3%. Most altcoins experienced even steeper declines, with XRP falling 7.7%, HEX and Tarium crashing 22%, PEPE dropping 8%, and Solana decreasing 2.6%. A few bright spots emerged with Dogecoin gaining 8.7% and TON rising 11.5%, while Chainlink maintained a slight positive movement against the broader trend.

尽管有波动性，比特币还是成功地提高了1.7％，与同龄人相比，比特币展示了相对强度。以太坊的票价不佳，低于$ 1,900，亏损约3％。大多数Altcoins的急剧下降，XRP下降了7.7％，十六进制和Tarium跌倒了22％，Pepe下降了8％，Solana降低了2.6％。 Dogecoin出现了一些亮点，增长了8.7％，吨增长了11.5％，而ChainLink则在更广泛的趋势上保持了轻微的积极运动。

Economic Uncertainty Drives Investors to Safety

经济不确定性驱使投资者安全

The global economic landscape looks increasingly tense, with potential trade wars and macroeconomic anxiety contributing to a broader market downturn. In response, gold has surged to a historic high, briefly exceeding $3,111 before pulling back slightly.

全球经济格局看起来越来越紧张，潜在的贸易战和宏观经济焦虑会导致更广泛的市场低迷。作为回应，黄金飙升至历史悠久的高潮，短暂超过了3,111美元，然后稍微向后拉。

Brian explains how gold traditionally serves as the ultimate safe haven during economic turbulence, with investors fleeing to precious metals when digital and traditional markets appear unstable. This flight to safety further highlights the growing unease about the broader economic outlook.

布莱恩（Brian）解释了在经济动荡期间，黄金在传统上是最终的避风港，当数字和传统市场看起来不稳定时，投资者逃离了贵金属。这次安全的航班进一步凸显了人们对更广泛的经济前景的不安。

The analysis reveals an interesting divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins during this correction. While Bitcoin only dropped about 1%, most altcoins declined between 5% and 8%. This separation suggests that when uncertainty rises, investors still view Bitcoin as the safer digital asset, almost like a digital version of gold compared to more speculative altcoin investments.

该分析表明，在此校正期间，比特币和山寨币之间存在有趣的差异。虽然比特币仅下降了约1％，但大多数替代币在5％至8％之间下降。这种分离表明，当不确定性上升时，投资者仍然将比特币视为更安全的数字资产，几乎像是黄金的数字版本，而不是更投机的山寨币投资。

What On-Chain Data and Social Sentiment Reveal

什么链接数据和社交情绪揭示了

The crypto analyst delves into key on-chain metrics and social trends to provide a multi-faceted perspective on the market. Several indicators suggest concerning trends in Bitcoin’s network activity. Transaction volume is decreasing, indicating lower levels of activity on the network in terms of transactions.

加密分析师研究了关键的链界指标和社会趋势，以对市场提供多方面的观点。几个指标建议比特币网络活动的趋势。交易量正在减少，表明在交易方面，网络活动水平较低。

Daily active addresses are also declining, which might suggest reduced user engagement and activity on the network. Additionally, there’s a reduction in circulation, which could imply less movement of Bitcoin balances between wallets. All three trends suggest diminished network usage in the short term.

每日活动地址也在下降，这可能表明网络上的用户参与度和活动减少。此外，循环量减少，这可能意味着钱包之间比特币平衡的运动较少。这三个趋势都表明短期内网络使用率减少。

The analysis reveals that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for both short-term (365 days) and long-term (60 days) holders is now placing both types of holders nearly at their break-even points.

该分析表明，短期（365天）和长期（60天）持有人的市场价值（MVRV）比率均已将两种类型的持有人几乎置于其收支平衡点。

However, there aren’t yet any significant signs of massive selling pressure from existing holders, which might suggest a calm period before more substantial market movements.

但是，目前尚无对现有持有人产生巨大销售压力的任何重大迹象，这可能表明在更实质性的市场转移之前，这可能表明一个平静的时期。

Social media analysis shows a slight increase in “buy the dip” mentions, but they haven’t yet reached levels that would indicate market complacency. The Santiment analyst points out that historically, genuine market bottoms often form when people completely stop talking about buying opportunities.

社交媒体分析显示，“购买浸入”提到的略有增加，但尚未达到表明市场自满的水平。 Santiment分析师指出，当人们完全停止谈论购买机会时，从历史上讲，真正的市场底层通常会形成。

Right now, sentiment remains notably bullish across platforms like X (Twitter), with more mentions of Bitcoin going “high/higher” than “low/lower” — potentially signaling that sufficient fear hasn’t entered the market to indicate a true bottom.

目前，诸如X（Twitter）之类的平台上仍然明显看好情绪，比比特币的“高/更高”比“低/较低”的提及更多，这可能表明足够的恐惧并没有进入市场以表明真正的底层。

Smart Money vs. Retail Behavior

聪明的钱与零售行为

The data presents a stark contrast between large and small investors’ actions. Whale wallets, defined as those holding more than 10 BTC, have been steadily accumulating since March 3rd. In total, they've added around 13,000 BTC to their holdings.

数据表现出大型和小型投资者的行动之间的对比。自3月3日以来，定义为持有超过10 BTC的鲸鱼钱包一直在稳步积累。他们总共增加了大约13,000个BTC的股份。

However, retail investors, holding less than 0.1 BTC, have been selling. Their collective balance has decreased by about 840 BTC since March 12th.

但是，持有不到0.1 BTC的散户投资者一直在出售。自3月12日以来，他们的集体余额减少了约840 BTC。

This behavior suggests that sophisticated investors, often termed “smart money,” may be quietly building positions while retail traders are exiting the market—a pattern often seen during market corrections before eventual recoveries.

这种行为表明，经常被称为“智能货币”的复杂投资者可能是在零售交易者退出市场时悄悄地建立职位 - 这种模式在最终恢复之前经常在市场上看到。

Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has hit eight-year lows, typically considered a bullish factor as it means fewer coins are readily available for immediate sale. At the same time, funding rates are turning negative, especially on major exchanges like Binance and BitMEX. This signals that more traders are opening short positions, betting on the market to go down.

比特币在交易所的供应已经达到了八年的低点，通常被认为是看涨因素，因为这意味着更少的硬币可以立即出售。同时，筹资率变成负面，尤其是在Binance和Bitmex等主要交易所中。这表明越来越多的贸易商正在开放空头头寸，在市场上下注要下降。

If the market were to unexpectedly turn around and move upward from here, it could potentially create a short squeeze, placing pressure on those short sellers to close their positions quickly, potentially leading to even faster

如果市场出乎意料地转身并从这里向上移动，它可能会造成短暂的挤压，给那些卖空者施加压力，以迅速关闭其位置