加密市場今天崩潰的真正原因：比特幣與altcoin分析

從市場面臨急劇糾正的情況下，從一個有希望的一周開始，加密貨幣的一周迅速變成了失望。

What started as a promising week for cryptocurrency quickly turned into disappointment as the market faced a sharp correction. Bitcoin had climbed above $88,000 and Ethereum was approaching $2,100, initially sparking hope for further gains. However, the good times were short-lived as crypto encountered some difficulties, leading to a downturn.

從市場面臨急劇糾正的情況下，從一個有希望的一周開始，加密貨幣的一周迅速變成了失望。比特幣攀升了88,000美元以上，以太坊接近2,100美元，最初引發了人們的希望。但是，由於加密貨幣遇到了一些困難，因此美好的時光是短暫的，導致了衰退。

In his latest analysis video, Brian from Santiment Network, which boasts over 13,000 YouTube subscribers, breaks down what’s causing the current market slump.

Santiment Network的最新分析視頻Brian在擁有13,000多個YouTube訂戶的Brian中打破了當前市場衰退的原因。

The downturn appears to be driven by renewed inflation concerns and growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Canada, which could lead to increased trade barriers. Crypto analysts are debating whether digital assets are simply following traditional markets down due to macroeconomic factors, or if they’re developing their own independent patterns in this environment.

下滑似乎是由通貨膨脹的重新關注以及美國和加拿大之間的地緣政治緊張局勢越來越多的驅動的，這可能會導致貿易障礙的增加。加密分析師正在辯論，由於宏觀經濟因素，數字資產是否僅僅是在傳統市場下降，還是在這種環境中開發自己的獨立模式。

Despite the volatility, Bitcoin managed to finish the week up 1.7%, showcasing relative strength compared to its peers. Ethereum didn’t fare as well, dropping below $1,900 and posting a loss of about 3%. Most altcoins experienced even steeper declines, with XRP falling 7.7%, HEX and Tarium crashing 22%, PEPE dropping 8%, and Solana decreasing 2.6%. A few bright spots emerged with Dogecoin gaining 8.7% and TON rising 11.5%, while Chainlink maintained a slight positive movement against the broader trend.

儘管有波動性，比特幣還是成功地提高了1.7％，與同齡人相比，比特幣展示了相對強度。以太坊的票價不佳，低於$ 1,900，虧損約3％。大多數Altcoins的急劇下降，XRP下降了7.7％，十六進制和Tarium跌倒了22％，Pepe下降了8％，Solana降低了2.6％。 Dogecoin出現了一些亮點，增長了8.7％，噸增長了11.5％，而ChainLink則在更廣泛的趨勢上保持了輕微的積極運動。

Economic Uncertainty Drives Investors to Safety

經濟不確定性驅使投資者安全

The global economic landscape looks increasingly tense, with potential trade wars and macroeconomic anxiety contributing to a broader market downturn. In response, gold has surged to a historic high, briefly exceeding $3,111 before pulling back slightly.

全球經濟格局看起來越來越緊張，潛在的貿易戰和宏觀經濟焦慮會導致更廣泛的市場低迷。作為回應，黃金飆升至歷史悠久的高潮，短暫超過了3,111美元，然後稍微向後拉。

Brian explains how gold traditionally serves as the ultimate safe haven during economic turbulence, with investors fleeing to precious metals when digital and traditional markets appear unstable. This flight to safety further highlights the growing unease about the broader economic outlook.

布萊恩（Brian）解釋了在經濟動盪期間，黃金在傳統上是最終的避風港，當數字和傳統市場看起來不穩定時，投資者逃離了貴金屬。這次安全的航班進一步凸顯了人們對更廣泛的經濟前景的不安。

The analysis reveals an interesting divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins during this correction. While Bitcoin only dropped about 1%, most altcoins declined between 5% and 8%. This separation suggests that when uncertainty rises, investors still view Bitcoin as the safer digital asset, almost like a digital version of gold compared to more speculative altcoin investments.

該分析表明，在此校正期間，比特幣和山寨幣之間存在有趣的差異。雖然比特幣僅下降了約1％，但大多數替代幣在5％至8％之間下降。這種分離表明，當不確定性上升時，投資者仍然將比特幣視為更安全的數字資產，幾乎像是黃金的數字版本，而不是更投機的山寨幣投資。

What On-Chain Data and Social Sentiment Reveal

什麼鏈接數據和社交情緒揭示了

The crypto analyst delves into key on-chain metrics and social trends to provide a multi-faceted perspective on the market. Several indicators suggest concerning trends in Bitcoin’s network activity. Transaction volume is decreasing, indicating lower levels of activity on the network in terms of transactions.

加密分析師研究了關鍵的鏈界指標和社會趨勢，以對市場提供多方面的觀點。幾個指標建議比特幣網絡活動的趨勢。交易量正在減少，表明在交易方面，網絡活動水平較低。

Daily active addresses are also declining, which might suggest reduced user engagement and activity on the network. Additionally, there’s a reduction in circulation, which could imply less movement of Bitcoin balances between wallets. All three trends suggest diminished network usage in the short term.

每日活動地址也在下降，這可能表明網絡上的用戶參與度和活動減少。此外，循環量減少，這可能意味著錢包之間比特幣平衡的運動較少。這三個趨勢都表明短期內網絡使用率減少。

The analysis reveals that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for both short-term (365 days) and long-term (60 days) holders is now placing both types of holders nearly at their break-even points.

該分析表明，短期（365天）和長期（60天）持有人的市場價值（MVRV）比率均已將兩種類型的持有人幾乎置於其收支平衡點。

However, there aren’t yet any significant signs of massive selling pressure from existing holders, which might suggest a calm period before more substantial market movements.

但是，目前尚無對現有持有人產生巨大銷售壓力的任何重大跡象，這可能表明在更實質性的市場轉移之前，這可能表明一個平靜的時期。

Social media analysis shows a slight increase in “buy the dip” mentions, but they haven’t yet reached levels that would indicate market complacency. The Santiment analyst points out that historically, genuine market bottoms often form when people completely stop talking about buying opportunities.

社交媒體分析顯示，“購買浸入”提到的略有增加，但尚未達到表明市場自滿的水平。 Santiment分析師指出，當人們完全停止談論購買機會時，從歷史上講，真正的市場底層通常會形成。

Right now, sentiment remains notably bullish across platforms like X (Twitter), with more mentions of Bitcoin going “high/higher” than “low/lower” — potentially signaling that sufficient fear hasn’t entered the market to indicate a true bottom.

目前，諸如X（Twitter）之類的平台上仍然明顯看好情緒，比比特幣的“高/更高”比“低/較低”的提及更多，這可能表明足夠的恐懼並沒有進入市場以表明真正的底層。

Smart Money vs. Retail Behavior

聰明的錢與零售行為

The data presents a stark contrast between large and small investors’ actions. Whale wallets, defined as those holding more than 10 BTC, have been steadily accumulating since March 3rd. In total, they've added around 13,000 BTC to their holdings.

數據表現出大型和小型投資者的行動之間的對比。自3月3日以來，定義為持有超過10 BTC的鯨魚錢包一直在穩步積累。他們總共增加了大約13,000個BTC的股份。

However, retail investors, holding less than 0.1 BTC, have been selling. Their collective balance has decreased by about 840 BTC since March 12th.

但是，持有不到0.1 BTC的散戶投資者一直在出售。自3月12日以來，他們的集體餘額減少了約840 BTC。

This behavior suggests that sophisticated investors, often termed “smart money,” may be quietly building positions while retail traders are exiting the market—a pattern often seen during market corrections before eventual recoveries.

這種行為表明，經常被稱為“智能貨幣”的複雜投資者可能是在零售交易者退出市場時悄悄地建立職位 - 這種模式在最終恢復之前經常在市場上看到。

Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has hit eight-year lows, typically considered a bullish factor as it means fewer coins are readily available for immediate sale. At the same time, funding rates are turning negative, especially on major exchanges like Binance and BitMEX. This signals that more traders are opening short positions, betting on the market to go down.

比特幣在交易所的供應已經達到了八年的低點，通常被認為是看漲因素，因為這意味著更少的硬幣可以立即出售。同時，籌資率變成負面，尤其是在Binance和Bitmex等主要交易所中。這表明越來越多的貿易商正在開放空頭頭寸，在市場上下注要下降。

If the market were to unexpectedly turn around and move upward from here, it could potentially create a short squeeze, placing pressure on those short sellers to close their positions quickly, potentially leading to even faster

如果市場出乎意料地轉身並從這裡向上移動，它可能會造成短暫的擠壓，給那些賣空者施加壓力，以迅速關閉其位置