Raoul Pal 预测“香蕉奇点”山寨币季节将先于比特币 (BTC) 市场集中阶段

帕尔表示，当前阶段是继去年出现重大突破之后的盘整阶段。但真正的牛市尚未到来

Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a consolidation phase following a significant breakout last year, but the true bull run is yet to come, offering hope to crypto investors worldwide.

继去年的重大突破之后，加密货币市场正在经历整合阶段，但真正的牛市尚未到来，这为全球加密货币投资者带来了希望。

The “Banana Zone” is a term used by Raoul Pal to describe a market phase where cryptocurrencies experience an accelerated upward price trajectory. On a chart, the price movements resemble the shape of a banana. Pal has used this term to illustrate the rapid upward price movements of Bitcoin and other altcoins in various market cycles.

“香蕉区”是拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）用来描述加密货币经历价格加速上涨轨迹的市场阶段的术语。在图表上，价格走势类似于香蕉的形状。帕尔用这个术语来说明比特币和其他山寨币在不同市场周期中价格的快速上涨。

According to Pal, the first phase of the Banana Zone occurred last year when Bitcoin experienced its breakout, which has now transitioned into a consolidation period, as indicated by the current market conditions.

据帕尔介绍，香蕉区的第一阶段发生在去年，当时比特币经历了突破，现在从当前的市场状况来看，该阶段已经过渡到盘整期。

Raoul Pal's Forecast for Banana Singularity and Altcoin Season

Raoul Pal 对香蕉奇点和山寨币季节的预测

Raoul Pal's forecast for the next stage of the Banana Zone is “Banana Singularity,” which he anticipates will be a massive altcoin rally. During this phase, Pal predicts that altcoins will surge in value, and the entire market will experience a broad upward movement. However, he also cautions that such a phase will be followed by another period of consolidation.

拉乌尔·帕尔 (Raoul Pal) 对香蕉区下一阶段的预测是“香蕉奇点”，他预计山寨币将出现大规模反弹。帕尔预测，在这一阶段，山寨币的价值将会飙升，整个市场将经历广泛的上涨。然而，他也警告说，这一阶段之后将是另一个整合期。

“Banana Singularity will be the altcoin season when everything goes up,” Pal remarked in his recent post. His prediction aligns with expectations that altcoins will see a significant rise in the coming months, especially after Bitcoin’s dominance in the market begins to subside.

“香蕉奇点将是一切都上涨的山寨币季节，”帕尔在最近的帖子中说道。他的预测与山寨币将在未来几个月大幅上涨的预期一致，尤其是在比特币在市场上的主导地位开始消退之后。

When Bitcoin's dominance decreases, it typically paves the way for altcoins to capture a larger share of the market. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as “altseason.”

当比特币的主导地位下降时，它通常会为山寨币占领更大的市场份额铺平道路。这种现象通常被称为“替代季节”。

The final phase of the Banana Zone, according to Pal, will be the “Concentration Phase,” where the core winners in the crypto space will experience exponential growth. This phase marks the culmination of a bull market, when select cryptocurrencies rise to new all-time highs and the market narrows down to the top performers.

帕尔表示，香蕉区的最后阶段将是“集中阶段”，加密货币领域的核心赢家将经历指数级增长。这一阶段标志着牛市的顶峰，届时某些加密货币将升至历史新高，市场范围将缩小到表现最好的货币。

The question on every investor's mind is which crypto will be the top performers? Among the prime candidates is Ripple's XRP token. With Ripple's battle against the SEC concluding, the path is clear for XRP to be a top performer in this year's crypto bull run.

每个投资者心中的问题是哪种加密货币将成为表现最好的？ Ripple 的 XRP 代币是主要候选者之一。随着 Ripple 与 SEC 的斗争结束，XRP 成为今年加密货币牛市中表现最佳的货币的道路已经明确。

Pal had previously called markets with relatively good timing, including his call about the rise in cryptocurrencies back in September 2024. His thoughts have mostly been right on the money as global liquidity has made many upswings: “As global liquidity rises, cryptocurrencies will rise—as will other markets like the Nasdaq,” he said in an earlier post as he reflected on broader macroeconomic factors affecting the crypto market.

Pal 此前曾对市场做出过相对较好的时机预测，包括他在 2024 年 9 月对加密货币上涨的预测。随着全球流动性出现多次上升，他对货币的想法大多是正确的：“随着全球流动性的上升，加密货币将会上涨——纳斯达克等其他市场也是如此，”他在早些时候的一篇文章中表示，他在思考影响加密货币市场的更广泛的宏观经济因素时说道。

Bitcoin's Recent Price Movement and Market Outlook

比特币近期价格走势及市场展望

The price action of Bitcoin has been very volatile lately, and the cryptocurrency has seen extreme swings. Having appreciated to highs above $102,000 in early January 2025, Bitcoin plunged all the way down below $92,000 and then recovered to approximately $94,800.

比特币的价格走势最近非常波动，加密货币出现了极大的波动。比特币在 2025 年 1 月上旬升至 102,000 美元以上的高位后，一路跌破 92,000 美元，然后回升至约 94,800 美元。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $93,563, according to the Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) on Brave New Coin.

根据 Brave New Coin 上的比特币流动性指数 (BLX)，截至本文发布时，比特币 (BTC) 的交易价格为 93,563 美元。

While Bitcoin is correcting from its current price levels, both Bitcoin and the general crypto market have risen significantly over the last year, with the total market capitalization growing from $1.8 trillion to $3.4 trillion.

虽然比特币正在从当前的价格水平进行调整，但比特币和整个加密货币市场在去年都大幅上涨，总市值从 1.8 万亿美元增长到 3.4 万亿美元。

Pal's insights on the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity remain central to his outlook on the market. He has emphasized that, despite short-term market corrections, the overall trajectory for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remains positive over the long term.

帕尔对比特币与全球流动性之间相关性的见解仍然是他对市场前景的核心。他强调，尽管出现短期市场调整，但从长远来看，比特币和其他加密货币的整体轨迹仍然乐观。

The Future of Crypto: Awaiting Regulatory Developments

加密货币的未来：等待监管发展

Looking ahead to early 2025, Pal's predictions about the “Banana Singularity” are buoyed by the growing optimism surrounding the crypto space. While regulatory challenges and uncertainty about global economic conditions persist, the potential for a major altcoin rally remains high. Pal's optimistic view hinges on increasing institutional adoption and the eventual stabilization of regulatory environments.

展望 2025 年初，帕尔对“香蕉奇点”的预测受到围绕加密货币领域日益增长的乐观情绪的鼓舞。尽管监管挑战和全球经济状况的不确定性依然存在，但山寨币大幅上涨的潜力仍然很高。帕尔的乐观看法取决于制度采用的增加和监管环境的最终稳定。

In conclusion, while the current market phase may seem uncertain due to Bitcoin's price corrections, the broader trend remains upward, according to Raoul Pal. His “Banana Zone” framework provides a roadmap for crypto investors to anticipate future market movements and work out what crypto to buy, with altcoins poised to take center stage in the coming months. Keep an eye on XRP, it is set to perform strongly in 2025.

拉乌尔·帕尔表示，总而言之，虽然由于比特币价格调整，当前的市场阶段可能看起来不确定，但总体趋势仍然向上。他的“香蕉区”框架为加密货币投资者提供了一个路线图，以预测未来的市场走势并确定要购买的加密货币，而山寨币将在未来几个月占据中心舞台。密切关注 XRP，它预计将在 2025 年表现强劲。