Raoul Pal 預測「香蕉奇點」山寨幣季節將先於比特幣 (BTC) 市場集中階段

帕爾表示，目前階段是去年出現重大突破後的盤整階段。但真正的牛市尚未到來

Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a consolidation phase following a significant breakout last year, but the true bull run is yet to come, offering hope to crypto investors worldwide.

繼去年的重大突破之後，加密貨幣市場正在經歷整合階段，但真正的多頭市場尚未到來，這為全球加密貨幣投資者帶來了希望。

The “Banana Zone” is a term used by Raoul Pal to describe a market phase where cryptocurrencies experience an accelerated upward price trajectory. On a chart, the price movements resemble the shape of a banana. Pal has used this term to illustrate the rapid upward price movements of Bitcoin and other altcoins in various market cycles.

「香蕉區」是拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）用來描述加密貨幣經歷價格加速上漲軌蹟的市場階段的術語。在圖表上，價格走勢類似香蕉的形狀。帕爾用這個術語來說明比特幣和其他山寨幣在不同市場週期中的快速上漲價格走勢。

According to Pal, the first phase of the Banana Zone occurred last year when Bitcoin experienced its breakout, which has now transitioned into a consolidation period, as indicated by the current market conditions.

根據帕爾介紹，香蕉區的第一階段發生在去年，當時比特幣經歷了突破，現在從當前的市場狀況來看，該階段已經過渡到盤整期。

Raoul Pal's Forecast for Banana Singularity and Altcoin Season

Raoul Pal 對香蕉奇點和山寨幣季節的預測

Raoul Pal's forecast for the next stage of the Banana Zone is “Banana Singularity,” which he anticipates will be a massive altcoin rally. During this phase, Pal predicts that altcoins will surge in value, and the entire market will experience a broad upward movement. However, he also cautions that such a phase will be followed by another period of consolidation.

拉烏爾·帕爾 (Raoul Pal) 對香蕉區下一階段的預測是“香蕉奇點”，他預計山寨幣將出現大規模反彈。帕爾預測，在這一階段，山寨幣的價值將會飆升，整個市場將經歷廣泛的上漲。不過，他也警告說，這一階段之後將是另一個整合期。

“Banana Singularity will be the altcoin season when everything goes up,” Pal remarked in his recent post. His prediction aligns with expectations that altcoins will see a significant rise in the coming months, especially after Bitcoin’s dominance in the market begins to subside.

「香蕉奇點將是一切都上漲的山寨幣季節，」帕爾在最近的貼文中說道。他的預測與山寨幣將在未來幾個月大幅上漲的預期一致，尤其是在比特幣在市場上的主導地位開始消退之後。

When Bitcoin's dominance decreases, it typically paves the way for altcoins to capture a larger share of the market. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as “altseason.”

當比特幣的主導地位下降時，它通常會為山寨幣佔領更大的市場份額鋪平道路。這種現象通常被稱為「替代季節」。

The final phase of the Banana Zone, according to Pal, will be the “Concentration Phase,” where the core winners in the crypto space will experience exponential growth. This phase marks the culmination of a bull market, when select cryptocurrencies rise to new all-time highs and the market narrows down to the top performers.

帕爾表示，香蕉區的最後階段將是“集中階段”，加密貨幣領域的核心贏家將經歷指數級增長。這一階段標誌著牛市的頂峰，屆時某些加密貨幣將升至歷史新高，市場範圍將縮小到表現最好的貨幣。

The question on every investor's mind is which crypto will be the top performers? Among the prime candidates is Ripple's XRP token. With Ripple's battle against the SEC concluding, the path is clear for XRP to be a top performer in this year's crypto bull run.

每個投資人心中的問題是哪一種加密貨幣會成為表現最好的？ Ripple 的 XRP 代幣是主要候選人之一。隨著 Ripple 與 SEC 的鬥爭結束，XRP 成為今年加密貨幣牛市中表現最佳的貨幣的道路已經明確。

Pal had previously called markets with relatively good timing, including his call about the rise in cryptocurrencies back in September 2024. His thoughts have mostly been right on the money as global liquidity has made many upswings: “As global liquidity rises, cryptocurrencies will rise—as will other markets like the Nasdaq,” he said in an earlier post as he reflected on broader macroeconomic factors affecting the crypto market.

Pal 先前曾對市場做出相對較好的時機預測，包括他在2024 年9 月對加密貨幣上漲的預測。隨著全球流動性的上升，加密貨幣將會上漲——納斯達克等其他市場也是如此，」他在早些時候的一篇文章中表示，他在思考影響加密貨幣市場的更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素時說。

Bitcoin's Recent Price Movement and Market Outlook

比特幣近期價格走勢及市場展望

The price action of Bitcoin has been very volatile lately, and the cryptocurrency has seen extreme swings. Having appreciated to highs above $102,000 in early January 2025, Bitcoin plunged all the way down below $92,000 and then recovered to approximately $94,800.

比特幣的價格走勢最近非常波動，加密貨幣出現了極大的波動。比特幣在 2025 年 1 月初升至 102,000 美元以上的高點後，一路跌破 92,000 美元，然後回升至約 94,800 美元。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $93,563, according to the Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) on Brave New Coin.

根據 Brave New Coin 上的比特幣流動性指數 (BLX)，截至本文發佈時，比特幣 (BTC) 的交易價格為 93,563 美元。

While Bitcoin is correcting from its current price levels, both Bitcoin and the general crypto market have risen significantly over the last year, with the total market capitalization growing from $1.8 trillion to $3.4 trillion.

雖然比特幣正在從當前的價格水平進行調整，但比特幣和整個加密貨幣市場在去年都大幅上漲，總市值從 1.8 兆美元增長到 3.4 兆美元。

Pal's insights on the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity remain central to his outlook on the market. He has emphasized that, despite short-term market corrections, the overall trajectory for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remains positive over the long term.

帕爾對比特幣與全球流動性之間相關性的見解仍然是他對市場前景的核心。他強調，儘管出現短期市場調整，但長期來看，比特幣和其他加密貨幣的整體軌跡仍然樂觀。

The Future of Crypto: Awaiting Regulatory Developments

加密貨幣的未來：等待監管發展

Looking ahead to early 2025, Pal's predictions about the “Banana Singularity” are buoyed by the growing optimism surrounding the crypto space. While regulatory challenges and uncertainty about global economic conditions persist, the potential for a major altcoin rally remains high. Pal's optimistic view hinges on increasing institutional adoption and the eventual stabilization of regulatory environments.

展望 2025 年初，帕爾對「香蕉奇點」的預測受到圍繞加密貨幣領域日益增長的樂觀情緒的鼓舞。儘管監管挑戰和全球經濟狀況的不確定性仍然存在，但山寨幣大幅上漲的潛力仍然很高。帕爾的樂觀看法取決於制度採用的增加和監管環境的最終穩定。

In conclusion, while the current market phase may seem uncertain due to Bitcoin's price corrections, the broader trend remains upward, according to Raoul Pal. His “Banana Zone” framework provides a roadmap for crypto investors to anticipate future market movements and work out what crypto to buy, with altcoins poised to take center stage in the coming months. Keep an eye on XRP, it is set to perform strongly in 2025.

拉烏爾帕爾表示，總而言之，雖然由於比特幣價格調整，當前的市場階段可能看起來不確定，但整體趨勢仍然向上。他的「香蕉區」框架為加密貨幣投資者提供了一個路線圖，以預測未來的市場走勢並確定要購買的加密貨幣，而山寨幣將在未來幾個月佔據中心舞台。密切關注 XRP，它預計將在 2025 年表現強勁。