随着第2层解决方案的增长有可能使其处理能力饱和，与以太坊可扩展性的时间竞赛

自引入EIP-4844以来，以太坊将“斑点”用作低成本的存储机制来支持基础，仲裁和乐观等L2网络。

Ethereum could soon face a technical deadlock as the rapid expansion of layer 2 solutions threatens to overwhelm its processing capacity, despite planned improvements, a new report by crypto experts warns.

Crypto专家警告说，尽管计划有所改善，但第2层解决方案的迅速扩展可能会淹没其处理能力，以太坊可能会面临技术僵局。

As reported by Cointribune, despite the planned EIP-4844 upgrade, which is set to increase the number of “blobs” in each block to six, demand from L2 networks like Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism could outpace supply.

正如Cointribune报道的那样，尽管有计划的EIP-4844升级，该升级旨在将每个块中的“斑点”数量增加到六个，但L2网络的需求（例如基本，仲裁和乐观）可能会超过供应。

This would have the effect of raising transaction fees on L2s to levels that could stymie user adoption, even with the introduction of PeerDAS and Fusaka.

这将产生将L2S的交易费用提高到可能阻碍用户采用的水平，即使引入Peerdas和Fusaka。

Indeed, experts believe that Ethereum would need to process at least 33 blobs per block to keep L2 transaction costs low, at around $0.02 per transaction.

确实，专家认为，以太坊需要每个块至少处理33个斑点，以使L2交易成本较低，约为每笔交易的0.02美元。

However, even with the Pectra upgrade, scheduled for May 7, 2025, and the next few phases of the roadmap, this level of throughput seems unattainable in the short term.

但是，即使是计划于2025年5月7日和路线图的接下来的几个阶段进行的Pectra升级，这种吞吐量在短期内似乎无法实现。

At present, L2s are handling a combined transaction volume of about 3,000 transactions per second, which consumes three to four blobs per second.

目前，L2S处理的合并交易量约为每秒3,000件交易，每秒消耗三到四个斑点。

A tenfold increase in transaction volume on these networks would push fees to $0.64 per transaction, rendering L2s largely unusable.

这些网络的交易量增加十倍，将费用提高到每笔交易的0.64美元，从而使L2S基本上无法使用。

To put this in perspective, L2s generated $3 billion in revenue for Ethereum in 2023, while miners collected $1 billion in block rewards.

从角度来看，L2S在2023年为以太坊产生了30亿美元的收入，而矿工则收取了10亿美元的收益。

Moreover, L2s contributed about $4.5 billion to the Ethereum treasury through blob fees.

此外，L2s通过Blob Fees为以太坊财政部贡献了约45亿美元。

Base is a perfect example of the L2 model's potential and challenges.

基础是L2模型潜力和挑战的完美例子。

Since its launch, Base has generated over $106 million in fees, onboarded more than 155 million addresses, and contributed $4.5 million in blob fees for Ethereum.

自推出以来，基地已经产生了超过1.06亿美元的费用，登上了超过1.55亿美元的地址，并为以太坊贡献了450万美元的斑点费用。

With an average of 93 transactions per second over the past six months, Base highlights both the benefits and difficulties of the current model.

在过去的六个月中，平均每秒93次交易，基础强调了当前模型的好处和困难。

This blockchain already secures nearly $10 billion in total value, strengthening the Ethereum ecosystem.

该区块链已经确保了近100亿美元的总价值，从而增强了以太坊生态系统。

However, sustained growth at this rate would quickly exhaust the available capacity on Ethereum, shifting the balance in favor of a return to high transaction fees.

但是，以这种速度持续增长将迅速消耗以太坊的可用容量，转移平衡，有利于返回高交易费用。

This would ultimately compromise L2's long-term strategy and squander the gains made in scaling the network.

这最终将损害L2的长期战略，并浪费在扩展网络时所取得的收益。

In a scenario where L2 transactions increase tenfold, Ethereum’s annualized revenue would reach about $1.4 billion, roughly equivalent to its current fee generation.

在L2交易增加十倍的情况下，以太坊的年度收入将达到约14亿美元，大致相当于当前的收费。

Therefore, Ethereum’s future as the backbone of Decentralized Applications will depend on its ability to resolve these technical constraints before they become an insurmountable obstacle to its adoption.

因此，以太坊作为分散应用程序的骨干的未来将取决于其在这些技术限制成为其采用障碍之前解决这些技术限制的能力。

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