随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对中国进口征收104％的关税，北京正在通过让人民币削弱美元来做出回应

随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对中国进口征收104％的关税，北京正在通过让人民币削弱美元来做出回应 - 分析师说这一举动

The latest chapter in the US-China trade war saga saw President Donald Trump slap 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond by allowing the yuan to weaken against the dollar.

美国 - 中国贸易战争传奇的最新一章使唐纳德·特朗普总统对中国进口的征收104％的关税，促使北京通过允许人民币削弱兑美元来做出回应。

This move could spark the next leg of the Bitcoin bull market, according to analysts at BNP Paribas and Bybit.

BNP Paribas和Bybit的分析师称，此举可能会激发比特币市场的下一个领域。

On April 8, the yuan-to-US dollar exchange rate fell to its lowest level since the start of 2023, signaling the Chinese central bank’s greater tolerance for its currency to fluctuate more freely.

自2023年初以来，4月8日，人民币到美国的汇率下降到了其最低水平，这表明中央银行对其货币更加自由波动的容忍度更大。

The US dollar-to-yuan exchange rate on April 8. Chart: Bloomberg

4月8日的美元到YUAN汇率。图表：彭博

“The China currency futures traders are piling into bearish bets on the yuan at a record pace. The stellar dollar rally this year is also spurring demand for the greenback in spot markets, leading to yuan weakness,” analysts at BNP Paribas said in a recent note.

国民杂志Paribas的分析师在最近的一份说法中说：“中国货币期货交易商以创纪录的速度堆积了元人民币的看跌赌注。今年，今年的杰出美元集会也激发了人们对现货市场的需求，导致Yuan弱点。”

With the trade war intensifying, “expectation for China to eventually devalue the currency has jumped and the pressure won't go away easily,” Ju Wang, head of Greater China FX at BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

随着贸易战争的加剧，“人们期望中国最终贬值货币，压力不容易消失，”法国法国法国人民署帕里巴斯（BNP Paribas）的大中华人联盟负责人朱·王（Ju Wang）告诉路透社。

The yuan’s devaluation could drive the narrative of Chinese capital flight into hard assets, which includes Bitcoin (BTC), according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.

根据Bitmex创始人Arthur Hayes的说法，人民币的贬值可能会将中国资本资本的叙述带入艰苦的资产，其中包括比特币（BTC）。

“It worked in 2013, 2015, and can work in 2025,” said Hayes.

海斯说：“它在2013年，2015年工作，可以在2025年工作。”

Bybit’s co-founder and CEO, Ben Zhou, agreed, arguing that China will let the yuan weaken to counter the trade war. This means “a lot of Chinese capital flow into BTC, [which is] bullish for BTC,” said Zhou.

拜比特（Bybit）的联合创始人兼首席执行官本·周（Ben Zhou）表示同意，认为中国将允许人民币削弱以应对贸易战。这意味着“大量中国资本流入BTC，这对BTC来说是看好的，” Zhou说。

Source: Ben Zhou

资料来源：本周

Bybit is the world’s second-largest crypto exchange by volume and is a popular platform for derivatives traders. In December, the exchange said users in mainland China can now trade freely on the platform without the use of a VPN but that yuan trades are not permitted.

Bybit是世界上第二大加密货币交易所，是衍生品交易员的流行平台。 12月，交易所表示，中国大陆的用户现在可以在平台上自由交易，而无需使用VPN，但不允许使用人民币交易。

Currency volatility is here to stay as US-China trade war heats up

货币波动率将随着美国 - 中国贸易战争的加热而留在这里

Currency fluctuations are part and parcel of an escalating trade war that pits the two largest economies against each other.

货币波动是一场不断升级的贸易战的一部分，这使两个最大经济体相互对抗。

Beyond the yuan-dollar trade, investors are bracing for “insane” foreign exchange volatility tied to the trade war, according to Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra FX Solutions.

Spectra FX Solutions总裁Brent Donnelly表示，除了元美元的贸易之外，投资者还为与贸易战息息相关的“疯狂”外汇波动。

The US dollar has been in a steady decline since President Trump’s inauguration, with the DXY Dollar Index falling from a high of nearly 110 to the current sub-103 level.

自特朗普总统就职典礼以来，美元一直在下降，DXY美元指数从近110个降至目前的103级低下。

The decline between the end of February and early March was one of the sharpest moves in the last decade, according to Julien Bittel, who heads macro research at Global Macro Investor.

据全球宏观投资人宏观研究负责人朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）表示，2月底至3月初之间的下降是过去十年中最急剧的举动之一。

The DXY tracks the US dollar’s performance against a basket of six currencies, with the euro and Japanese yen having the largest weightings.

DXY追踪了美元对六种货币篮的表现，欧元和日元的重量最大。

The US dollar, as measured by the DXY, has weakened considerably in recent months. Source: MarketWatch

DXY衡量的美元在最近几个月中已大大削弱。资料来源：MarketWatch

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has exhibited a strong inverse relationship with the US dollar, with a weaker greenback associated with a higher BTC price and vice versa.

从历史上看，比特币的价格与美元表现出牢固的反比关系，而绿色较弱的绿色与BTC价格较高相关，反之亦然。