隨著美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）對中國進口徵收104％的關稅，北京正在通過讓人民幣削弱美元來做出回應

隨著美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）對中國進口徵收104％的關稅，北京正在通過讓人民幣削弱美元來做出回應 - 分析師說這一舉動

The latest chapter in the US-China trade war saga saw President Donald Trump slap 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond by allowing the yuan to weaken against the dollar.

美國 - 中國貿易戰爭傳奇的最新一章使唐納德·特朗普總統對中國進口的徵收104％的關稅，促使北京通過允許人民幣削弱兌美元來做出回應。

This move could spark the next leg of the Bitcoin bull market, according to analysts at BNP Paribas and Bybit.

BNP Paribas和Bybit的分析師稱，此舉可能會激發比特幣市場的下一個領域。

On April 8, the yuan-to-US dollar exchange rate fell to its lowest level since the start of 2023, signaling the Chinese central bank’s greater tolerance for its currency to fluctuate more freely.

自2023年初以來，4月8日，人民幣到美國的匯率下降到了其最低水平，這表明中央銀行對其貨幣更加自由波動的容忍度更大。

The US dollar-to-yuan exchange rate on April 8. Chart: Bloomberg

4月8日的美元到YUAN匯率。圖表：彭博

“The China currency futures traders are piling into bearish bets on the yuan at a record pace. The stellar dollar rally this year is also spurring demand for the greenback in spot markets, leading to yuan weakness,” analysts at BNP Paribas said in a recent note.

國民雜誌Paribas的分析師在最近的一份說法中說：“中國貨幣期貨交易商以創紀錄的速度堆積了元人民幣的看跌賭注。今年，今年的傑出美元集會也激發了人們對現貨市場的需求，導致Yuan弱點。”

With the trade war intensifying, “expectation for China to eventually devalue the currency has jumped and the pressure won't go away easily,” Ju Wang, head of Greater China FX at BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

隨著貿易戰爭的加劇，“人們期望中國最終貶值貨幣，壓力不容易消失，”法國法國法國人民署帕里巴斯（BNP Paribas）的大中華人聯盟負責人朱·王（Ju Wang）告訴路透社。

The yuan’s devaluation could drive the narrative of Chinese capital flight into hard assets, which includes Bitcoin (BTC), according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.

根據Bitmex創始人Arthur Hayes的說法，人民幣的貶值可能會將中國資本資本的敘述帶入艱苦的資產，其中包括比特幣（BTC）。

“It worked in 2013, 2015, and can work in 2025,” said Hayes.

海斯說：“它在2013年，2015年工作，可以在2025年工作。”

Bybit’s co-founder and CEO, Ben Zhou, agreed, arguing that China will let the yuan weaken to counter the trade war. This means “a lot of Chinese capital flow into BTC, [which is] bullish for BTC,” said Zhou.

拜比特（Bybit）的聯合創始人兼首席執行官本·週（Ben Zhou）表示同意，認為中國將允許人民幣削弱以應對貿易戰。這意味著“大量中國資本流入BTC，這對BTC來說是看好的，” Zhou說。

Source: Ben Zhou

資料來源：本週

Bybit is the world’s second-largest crypto exchange by volume and is a popular platform for derivatives traders. In December, the exchange said users in mainland China can now trade freely on the platform without the use of a VPN but that yuan trades are not permitted.

Bybit是世界上第二大加密貨幣交易所，是衍生品交易員的流行平台。 12月，交易所表示，中國大陸的用戶現在可以在平台上自由交易，而無需使用VPN，但不允許使用人民幣交易。

Currency volatility is here to stay as US-China trade war heats up

貨幣波動率將隨著美國 - 中國貿易戰爭的加熱而留在這裡

Currency fluctuations are part and parcel of an escalating trade war that pits the two largest economies against each other.

貨幣波動是一場不斷升級的貿易戰的一部分，這使兩個最大經濟體相互對抗。

Beyond the yuan-dollar trade, investors are bracing for “insane” foreign exchange volatility tied to the trade war, according to Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra FX Solutions.

Spectra FX Solutions總裁Brent Donnelly表示，除了元美元的貿易之外，投資者還為與貿易戰息息相關的“瘋狂”外匯波動。

The US dollar has been in a steady decline since President Trump’s inauguration, with the DXY Dollar Index falling from a high of nearly 110 to the current sub-103 level.

自特朗普總統就職典禮以來，美元一直在下降，DXY美元指數從近110個降至目前的103級低下。

The decline between the end of February and early March was one of the sharpest moves in the last decade, according to Julien Bittel, who heads macro research at Global Macro Investor.

據全球宏觀投資人宏觀研究負責人朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）表示，2月底至3月初之間的下降是過去十年中最急劇的舉動之一。

The DXY tracks the US dollar’s performance against a basket of six currencies, with the euro and Japanese yen having the largest weightings.

DXY追踪了美元對六種貨幣籃的表現，歐元和日元的重量最大。

The US dollar, as measured by the DXY, has weakened considerably in recent months. Source: MarketWatch

DXY衡量的美元在最近幾個月中已大大削弱。資料來源：MarketWatch

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has exhibited a strong inverse relationship with the US dollar, with a weaker greenback associated with a higher BTC price and vice versa.

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格與美元表現出牢固的反比關係，而綠色較弱的綠色與BTC價格較高相關，反之亦然。