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3月7日,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统参加了白宫加密货币峰会,在那里他宣布成立了战略性比特币保护区。
President Donald Trump was in attendance at the White House cryptocurrency summit on March 7, where he announced the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. That repository, should it actually be formed, will contain Bitcoin (BTC 0.29%), and the similar Digital Asset Stockpile will contain other cryptocurrencies.
唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统于3月7日出席了白宫加密货币峰会,在那里他宣布成立了战略性比特币保护区。该存储库如果实际形成,将包含比特币(BTC 0.29%),类似的数字资产存储将包含其他加密货币。
And in the course of reading his prepared remarks, the president had four choice words to say that every investor holding or thinking about buying Bitcoin will want to hear. Most already know the nugget of wisdom he offered, but if you don't, let's take a look at what Trump said.
在阅读他准备好的言论的过程中,总统有四个选择的话说,每个持有或考虑购买比特币的投资者都希望听到。大多数人已经知道他提供的智慧块,但是如果您不提供的话,让我们看看特朗普所说的话。
Every Bitcoin [sic] knows these four words
每个比特币[sic]知道这四个词
Longtime Bitcoin investors can probably hardly believe that the day where the president of the United States could say something like "Never sell your Bitcoin" could come and go without much in the way of fanfare or bullish price action.
长期的比特币投资者可能几乎不能相信美国总统可以说“永不出售您的比特币”之类的话可以和夸张或看涨价格行动一样。
Yet those are the exact four words the president said at the culmination of the White House crypto summit, where the new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was announced. Despite the market's lukewarm response to the new policy, other major proponents of buying and holding Bitcoin tend to agree that it's almost never a good idea to sell your coins, except perhaps to rebalance your portfolio or adjust your risk profile. But there's an important additional wrinkle here.
然而,这是总统在白宫加密峰会的高潮中说的确切四个词,该峰会宣布了新的战略比特币储备。尽管市场对新政策的不冷不热反应,但购买和持有比特币的其他主要支持者倾向于同意,出售硬币几乎绝不是一个好主意,除了重新平衡您的投资组合或调整风险状况。但是这里还有一个重要的皱纹。
The president said, "From this day on, America will follow the rule that every Bitcoin [sic] knows very well: Never sell your Bitcoin." And that malapropism speaks to what the new digital asset stockpile policy should accomplish over time. He stumbled over the idea of "Bitcoin investors" and followed the bullish quote with some hedging, but it was still a strong pro-Bitcoin statement.
总统说:“从今天起,美国将遵循每个比特币都非常了解的规则:永远不要出售您的比特币。”这种不良主义说明了新的数字资产库存政策随着时间的推移应取得的成就。他偶然发现了“比特币投资者”的想法,并以对冲的方式跟随了看涨的报价,但这仍然是一个强有力的亲比特币声明。
Bitcoin holders, especially the more dedicated ones, tend to be a sturdy bunch as far as weathering market volatility goes, in part because they have to be.
就风化市场的波动而言,比特币持有者,尤其是更专用的比特币持有者往往是坚固的一堆,部分原因是它们必须是。
Over the long term, the coin's inherently limited supply will, in theory, make it more profitable to retain coins than to sell them, as there will be the same amount of demand chasing a smaller and smaller quantity of freshly mined coins. So long as everyone with a big vested financial interest in the coin going up refuses to sell, the odds are very much in favor of the asset's price rising. The price action of today or next week simply is not something to bother looking at when the plan calls for years and years of doing mostly nothing.
从长远来看,从理论上讲,硬币固有的有限供应将使保留硬币比出售硬币更有利可图,因为需要相同数量的需求来追逐越来越多的新鲜采矿的硬币。只要每个拥有巨大的既得财务利益的人都拒绝出售财务利益,那么几率就非常有利于资产的价格上涨。今天或下周的价格行动根本不是要查看计划多年来几年什么都没做的事情。
So far in the currency's history, as the president explicitly mused later in the same speech, the above theory of its growth has held up. Don't believe it? Look at this chart:
到目前为止,正如总统在同一演讲中明确沉思的那样,上述增长理论已经持续了下来。不相信吗?查看此图表:
Bitcoin Price data by YCharts
YCHARTS的比特币价格数据
As you can see, there were many periods in the past 10 years when you would have been very tempted to sell. But if you simply held -- or better yet, if you'd bought the deepest dips -- you'd likely have a lot more money than you started with.
如您所见,在过去的10年中,您有很多时期很容易出售。但是,如果您只是举行 - 或者更好的是,如果您购买了最深的蘸酱,那么您可能会比开始的钱更多。
Plus, now that the U.S. government is obliged to hold on to its coins rather than sell them, the scarcity mechanic that supports Bitcoin's value is going to be more relevant than ever, as a major holder is signaling that its coins will never be back on the market. Note that the U.S. hasn't necessarily committed to buying coins it doesn't already own, just to not selling. The supply available for purchase is going to be more constrained either way.
另外,既然美国政府有义务坚持其硬币而不是出售它们,那么支持比特币价值的稀缺机制将比以往任何时候都更加相关,因为主要持有人表明其硬币将永远不会回到市场上。请注意,美国不一定要购买它尚未拥有的硬币,而只是为了不出售。无论哪种方式,可供购买的供应都将受到更大的约束。
The new policy will still be favorable for holders, assuming it's implemented in the proposed form, but keep your expectations grounded. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve isn't shaping up to the game-changing Bitcoin buyer many investors had expected.
假设该政策以拟议的形式实施,但对持有人的期望仍然有利于持有人。战略性比特币储备并没有塑造许多投资者预期的改变游戏规则的比特币买家。
It's always possible to lose money
总是有可能亏本
The next 10 years are likely to be favorable ones for investors who dollar-cost average (DCA) into a larger Bitcoin position than they currently have. But those investors must resolve to (almost) never sell their coins, even if sharp drawdowns shake their conviction.
接下来的10年对于那些美元成本平均值(DCA)的投资者来说,可能是比他们目前更大的比特币职位。但是,即使急剧的缩减动摇了他们的信念,这些投资者也必须决心(几乎)永远不会出售硬币。
It's a lot easier to commit if you accept that Bitcoin is not an investment for the short term. And don't be tempted to bet the farm on this coin. The best approach is to allocate between 1% and 5% of your diversified portfolio to Bitcoin and slowly buy in small increments until you reach that point.
如果您接受比特币不是短期投资,那么提交要容易得多。而且不要想在这枚硬币上赌农场。最好的方法是将多元化投资组合的1%至5%分配给比特币,并以少量增量慢慢购买,直到达到这一点。
Finally, you don't need to take the president's word for what to do with your investments. If the conditions change or if your investment thesis for buying Bitcoin becomes invalidated, it's worth deciding for yourself whether to disobey the four words or not.
最后,您无需对总统的言论来处理您的投资。如果条件发生了变化,或者您的购买比特币的投资论文无效,则值得自己决定是否不服从四个单词。
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