XRP可以达到惊人的价值18000美元的预测。这一预测在加密社区中产生了与怀疑论一样多的热情，值得进行彻底的检查。

该文件由几位财务专家准备，介绍了五种不同的估值模型，以估算XRP的未来价格。

A collective of financial analysts specializing in cryptocurrencies has published a study suggesting that XRP could reach the astounding value of $18,000. This prediction, which generates as much enthusiasm as skepticism within the crypto community, deserves a thorough examination.

一批专门从事加密货币的财务分析师的集合发表了一项研究，表明XRP可以达到18,000美元的惊人价值。这一预测在加密社区中产生了与怀疑论一样多的热情，值得进行彻底的检查。

A report predicts an XRP at $18,000

报告预测XRP为$ 18,000

In June 2023, a month before the historic ruling by Judge Analisa Torres declaring that XRP was not a security, Valhill Capital released a white paper titled “A comprehensive approach to determining the fair market value of XRP.”

2023年6月，即Analisa Torres法官宣布XRP不是安全的一个月前一个月，Valhill Capital发布了一份题为“确定XRP公平市场价值的全面方法”的白皮书。

This document, prepared by several financial experts, presents five different valuation models to estimate XRP’s future price. Among these models, the “XRP Valuation Model No. 4” stands out particularly for its extreme optimism, suggesting a potential price of $18,036 per token.

该文件由几位财务专家准备，介绍了五种不同的估值模型，以估算XRP的未来价格。在这些模型中，“ XRP评估模型4”特别出于极大的乐观而脱颖而出，这表明每个令牌的潜在价格为18,036美元。

This analysis rests on the assumption that Ripple, the company behind XRP, would manage a substantial share of global financial transactions over the next decade.

该分析基于以下假设：XRP背后的公司将在未来十年内管理全球金融交易的大量份额。

The model uses the discounted cash flow (DCF) method and relies on several ambitious parameters: an estimated baseline global transaction volume of $104 trillion, a 2% economic growth rate over ten years (2023-2032), and a discount rate of 10%.

该模型使用折现现金流（DCF）方法并依赖几个雄心勃勃的参数：估计的基准全球交易量为104万亿美元，经济增长率为十年（2023-2032），折现率为10％。

In this ideal scenario, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) would gradually replace traditional systems like SWIFT, thus becoming the backbone of international money transfers.

在这种理想的情况下，XRP Ledger（XRPL）将逐渐取代Swift等传统系统，从而成为国际货币转移的骨干。

The model calculates a total current value of transactions of $915 trillion, which, distributed over a circulating supply of 50.7 billion XRP, leads to this estimate of $18,036 per token.

该模型计算了915万亿美元的交易总价值，该交易在507亿XRP的循环供应中分布，这一估计值为每种令牌18,036美元。

The reality of the market against optimistic forecasts

市场反对乐观预测的现实

Since the electoral victory of Donald Trump, the price of XRP has seen a significant increase, approaching its all-time high of $3.41. This progression has fueled overflowing optimism within the investor community, with increasingly ambitious predictions circulating on social media over the last three months, ranging from $100 to $1,000 per token.

自唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的选举胜利以来，XRP的价格已经大幅提高，其历史最高点为3.41美元。这种进步促进了投资者社区中充满乐观的兴趣，在过去三个月中，社交媒体在社交媒体上散发的预测越来越雄心勃勃，每个代币的范围从100美元到1,000美元不等。

However, upon closer examination of the conditions necessary for such a value explosion, it is clear that the current reality is quite different from the projections. As of February 28, 2025, there is no official confirmation to assert that XRP has been fully integrated by a major U.S. bank for cross-border payments or internal transactions.

但是，在仔细研究这种价值爆炸所需的条件后，很明显，当前的现实与预测完全不同。截至2025年2月28日，尚无官方确认声称XRP已由美国主要银行完全整合，用于跨境支付或内部交易。

While RippleNet, Ripple’s payment network, maintains connections with several large American financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase or Wells Fargo, only PNC Bank and Bank of America have established verifiable partnerships.

Ripplenet（Ripple的支付网络）保持着与摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）或富国银行（Wells Fargo）等几家大型美国金融机构的联系，但只有PNC银行和美国银行建立了可验证的合作伙伴关系。

Conflicting information is also circulating. A viral clip shows David Stryzewski, CEO of Sound Planning Group, stating that Bank of America has used RippleNet and XRP for “100% of its internal transactions” for two years.

相互矛盾的信息也在流通。一个病毒式剪辑显示，声音规划小组首席执行官David Stryzewski指出，美国银行使用Ripplenet和XRP进行了两年的“ 100％内部交易”。

However, this statement is questioned by XRP ledger transaction statistics, which do not show a volume corresponding to the 1.2 to 1.5 million daily transactions that an institution of this size would conduct.

但是，该声明受到XRP Ledger交易统计数据的质疑，该统计量没有显示与此规模机构进行的每日交易相对应的卷。

Similarly, Vittorio DiBenedetto, an employee of Wells Fargo, has categorically denied rumors regarding the adoption of XRP by his bank, labeling this information as “fake news.”

同样，富国银行的员工Vittorio Dibenedetto明确否认了有关其银行采用XRP的谣言，将此信息标记为“假新闻”。

The future of XRP, between legitimate hopes and necessary realism

XRP的未来，合法的希望与必要的现实主义之间

If XRP has indeed seen notable progress over the past twelve months, particularly following the filing of several spot ETF applications for XRP by various fund managers in February 2025, the reality of its adoption remains well below the projections put forward in the Valhill Capital white paper.

如果XRP在过去的十二个月中确实看到了显着的进展，尤其是在2025年2月向各种基金经理提交了XRP的几个位置ETF申请之后，其采用的现实仍远低于Valhill Capital White Paper提出的预测。

For XRP to reach a value of $18,000 by 2030, RippleNet and its native token would need to become the dominant system for global value transfers, replacing financial infrastructures established for decades.

为了使XRP到2030年达到18,000美元的价值，Ripplenet及其本地令牌将需要成为全球价值转移的主要系统，以取代数十年来建立的金融基础设施。

Although Ripple’s technological innovation presents undeniable advantages in terms of transaction speed and cost, the probability of such a radical transformation of the global financial system within such a short timeframe remains, according to experts, “infinitesimal.” Will XRP eventually dethrone Bitcoin? This scenario seems more like fantasy than reality.

尽管Ripple的技术创新在交易速度和成本方面具有不可否认的优势，但根据专家“ InfiticeSimal”的说法，在如此短的时间范围内，全球金融体系进行这种根本性转变的可能性仍然存在。 XRP最终会撤销比特币吗？这种情况似乎更像是幻想而不是现实。

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