预测市场：信息金融的未来

该行业发现自己正处于一个迷人的十字路口。

Good morning. This is Blockfolio.

早上好。这是Blockfolio。

Bitcoin’s see-saw game, prediction markets’ regulatory troubles, and a lot more in today’s crypto dose.

比特币的拉锯游戏、预测市场的监管问题以及当今加密货币中的更多内容。

Something else also happened beyond cryptocurrencies in the crypto space. Polymarket got banned in yet another country.

除了加密货币之外，加密领域还发生了其他事情。 Polymarket 又在另一个国家被禁止。

Last week, Singapore joined France and Taiwan in banning the top prediction platform and called it an "illegal gambling site". Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr - the President-elect’s son - joined Kalshi, another betting platform.

上周，新加坡与法国和台湾一起禁止了这个顶级预测平台，并称其为“非法赌博网站”。与此同时，当选总统的儿子小唐纳德·特朗普加入了另一个博彩平台 Kalshi。

That’s not all, there’s more.

这还不是全部，还有更多。

Well, hang in there, in today’s crypto dose we unwrap for you how far the prediction markets have come and where are they headed amid the regulatory troubles.

好吧，坚持住，在今天的加密货币剂量中，我们为您揭晓预测市场已经走了多远，以及在监管问题下它们将走向何方。

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完全访问我们每周的高级功能（虫洞、兔子洞和内存池）和仅限订阅者的帖子。 2025 年新年特别限时优惠 - 年度订阅可享受 38% 的折扣。

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索取新年优惠

State of Prediction Markets

预测市场状况

The industry finds itself at a fascinating crossroads.

该行业发现自己正处于一个迷人的十字路口。

In fact, as we write this, Thailand’s Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) also announced that it plans to propose closing Polymarket.

事实上，就在我们撰写本文时，泰国科技犯罪抑制部门 (TCSD) 也宣布计划提议关闭 Polymarket。

Reason given? Same as Singapore - “illegal gambling”.

给出理由吗？与新加坡相同——“非法赌博”。

A ban in both the Asian nations is not the only setback the platform is tackling.

这两个亚洲国家的禁令并不是该平台面临的唯一挫折。

On January 8, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) served Coinbase with a subpoena seeking general customer information of its users in relation with the Polymarket case.

1 月 8 日，美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 向 Coinbase 发出传票，要求其用户提供与 Polymarket 案件相关的一般客户信息。

These events make predicting the future of Polymarket more interesting. Why does it matter, though?

这些事件使得预测 Polymarket 的未来变得更加有趣。但为什么这很重要呢？

Polymarket started 2024 with insignificant numbers. It stayed low under the radar until June, when it sprang into action.

2024 年伊始，Polymarket 的数量微不足道。它一直处于低调状态，直到六月才开始行动。

In October and November, Polymarket witnessed a total trade volume worth almost $5 billion, that’s 3x the total volume seen in January through September that year.

10 月和 11 月，Polymarket 的总交易额接近 50 亿美元，是当年 1 月至 9 月总交易额的 3 倍。

On November 6, these prediction platforms had just proven their worth by accurately forecasting Trump's return to the White House.

11月6日，这些预测平台刚刚通过准确预测特朗普重返白宫而证明了自己的价值。

The Number Game

数字游戏

$8.5 billion: Polymarket’s total trading volume in 2024

85 亿美元：Polymarket 2024 年总交易量

314,500: Active traders in December 2024

314,500：2024 年 12 月活跃交易者

$2.6 billion: Highest monthly volume (November 2024)

26 亿美元：最高月交易量（2024 年 11 月）

$510 million: Peak open interest during US elections

5.1 亿美元：美国大选期间未平仓合约达到峰值

66.5%: Average monthly growth rate in 2024

66.5%：2024年月均增长率

Yet they're facing their biggest regulatory challenge yet.

然而他们正面临着迄今为止最大的监管挑战。

Singapore and Thailand labelling the platform as "illegal gambling"

新加坡和泰国将该平台标记为“非法赌博”

CFTC subpoenaing Coinbase for Polymarket user data

CFTC 传唤 Coinbase 获取 Polymarket 用户数据

FBI raid on Polymarket CEO's home

FBI 突击搜查 Polymarket 首席执行官的家

France and Taiwan restricting access

法国和台湾限制访问

Meanwhile, US-based Kalshi, which sees much smaller volumes being traded on its platform when compared with Polymarket, just got a shot in the arm. Donald Trump Jr joined them earlier this week to advise the trading platform on partnerships and go-to-market strategy.

与此同时，总部位于美国的 Kalshi 刚刚得到了一剂强心剂，该公司平台上的交易量比 Polymarket 少得多。小唐纳德·特朗普本周早些时候加入了他们的行列，为该交易平台提供合作伙伴关系和上市策略方面的建议。

“Don Jr.’s bold vision and deep expertise perfectly align with our mission to reshape how America engages with information,” Kalshi said in a post on X.

“小唐的大胆愿景和深厚的专业知识与我们重塑美国信息互动方式的使命完美契合，”卡尔希在 X 上发表的一篇文章中说道。

Where does this leave the future of prediction markets?

预测市场的未来将走向何方？

Beyond Elections: The Future

超越选举：未来

Prediction markets have managed to keep their platforms active post the elections.

预测市场在选举后设法保持其平台活跃。

The open interest on Polymarket, which peaked to north of $500 million during the elections, is down to averaging $100 million in December and January. That’s still level with the open interest the platform saw in the run up to the elections in August and September.

Polymarket 的未平仓头寸在选举期间达到 5 亿美元以上的峰值，但在 12 月和 1 月则降至平均 1 亿美元。这仍然与该平台在 8 月和 9 月选举前夕看到的未平仓合约持平。

Even the daily active traders on the platform have been gradually on the rise after the post-election drop.

即使是该平台上的每日活跃交易者在大选后下降后也逐渐上升。

The average has shot up to more than 40K daily active traders in December and January from less than 30K in November post election.

大选后，12 月和 1 月的平均日活跃交易者数从 11 月的不到 3 万猛增至超过 4 万。

While people are fixated on prediction markets’ election success, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sees something bigger emerging out of prediction markets - “Info finance”.

当人们关注预测市场的选举成功时，以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 看到了预测市场中正在出现的更大的东西——“信息金融”。

"Predicting the election is just the first app. The broader concept is that you can use finance as a way to align incentives in order to provide viewers with valuable information."

“预测选举只是第一个应用程序。更广泛的概念是，您可以使用金融作为调整激励措施的方式，以便为观众提供有价值的信息。”

Meaning? He thinks of this concept as a “three-sided” market, where bettors make predictions, readers consume these forecasts, and the system generates public predictions.

意义？他认为这个概念是一个“三面”市场，投注者做出预测，读者消费这些预测，系统生成公共预测。

That’s not all. Read on…

这还不是全部。继续阅读……

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Rallying Into Thin Air? 💨

比特币价格分析：凭空反弹？ 💨

After a stellar 2024, Bitcoin began 2025 with a dull performance. What’s causing this вялость (sluggishness in Russian), and where is BTC headed next?

在经历了 2024 年的辉煌之后，比特币在 2025 年开始表现平淡。是什么导致了这种“вялость”（俄语中的低迷），比特币下一步将走向何方？

Get Analysis

获取分析

Three shifts could shape prediction markets moving forward.

三个转变可能会影响预测市场的未来发展。

The Micro-Markets Revolution

微观市场革命

"The most interesting applications of info finance are on 'micro' questions," says Buterin.

“信息金融最有趣的应用是‘微观’问题，”Buterin 说。

Imagine millions of tiny markets, each seemingly inconsequential on its own

想象一下数以百万计的小市场，每个市场本身看起来都是无关紧要的