預測市場：資訊金融的未來

該行業發現自己正處於一個迷人的十字路口。

Good morning. This is Blockfolio.

早安.這是Blockfolio。

Bitcoin’s see-saw game, prediction markets’ regulatory troubles, and a lot more in today’s crypto dose.

比特幣的拉鋸遊戲、預測市場的監管問題以及當今加密貨幣中的更多內容。

Something else also happened beyond cryptocurrencies in the crypto space. Polymarket got banned in yet another country.

除了加密貨幣之外，加密領域還發生了其他事情。 Polymarket 又在另一個國家被禁止。

Last week, Singapore joined France and Taiwan in banning the top prediction platform and called it an "illegal gambling site". Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr - the President-elect’s son - joined Kalshi, another betting platform.

上週，新加坡與法國和台灣一起禁止了這個頂級預測平台，並稱其為「非法賭博網站」。同時，當選總統的兒子小唐納德·川普加入了另一個博彩平台 Kalshi。

That’s not all, there’s more.

這還不是全部，還有更多。

Well, hang in there, in today’s crypto dose we unwrap for you how far the prediction markets have come and where are they headed amid the regulatory troubles.

好吧，堅持住，在今天的加密貨幣劑量中，我們為您揭曉預測市場已經走了多遠，以及在監管問題下它們將走向何方。

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完全訪問我們每週的高級功能（蟲洞、兔子洞和內存池）和僅限訂閱者的帖子。 2025 年新年特別限時優惠 - 年度訂閱可享 38% 的折扣。

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索取新年優惠

State of Prediction Markets

預測市場狀況

The industry finds itself at a fascinating crossroads.

該行業發現自己正處於一個迷人的十字路口。

In fact, as we write this, Thailand’s Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) also announced that it plans to propose closing Polymarket.

事實上，就在我們撰寫本文時，泰國科技犯罪抑制部門 (TCSD) 也宣布計劃提議關閉 Polymarket。

Reason given? Same as Singapore - “illegal gambling”.

給出理由嗎？與新加坡相同—「非法賭博」。

A ban in both the Asian nations is not the only setback the platform is tackling.

這兩個亞洲國家的禁令並不是該平檯面臨的唯一挫折。

On January 8, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) served Coinbase with a subpoena seeking general customer information of its users in relation with the Polymarket case.

1 月 8 日，美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 向 Coinbase 發出傳票，要求其用戶提供與 Polymarket 案件相關的一般客戶資訊。

These events make predicting the future of Polymarket more interesting. Why does it matter, though?

這些事件使得預測 Polymarket 的未來變得更加有趣。但為什麼這很重要呢？

Polymarket started 2024 with insignificant numbers. It stayed low under the radar until June, when it sprang into action.

2024 年伊始，Polymarket 的數量微不足道。它一直處於低調狀態，直到六月才開始行動。

In October and November, Polymarket witnessed a total trade volume worth almost $5 billion, that’s 3x the total volume seen in January through September that year.

10 月和 11 月，Polymarket 的總交易額接近 50 億美元，是當年 1 月至 9 月總交易額的 3 倍。

On November 6, these prediction platforms had just proven their worth by accurately forecasting Trump's return to the White House.

11月6日，這些預測平台剛剛透過準確預測川普重返白宮而證明了自己的價值。

The Number Game

數位遊戲

$8.5 billion: Polymarket’s total trading volume in 2024

85 億美元：Polymarket 2024 年總成交量

314,500: Active traders in December 2024

314,500：2024 年 12 月活躍交易者

$2.6 billion: Highest monthly volume (November 2024)

26 億美元：最高月交易量（2024 年 11 月）

$510 million: Peak open interest during US elections

5.1 億美元：美國大選期間未平倉合約達到峰值

66.5%: Average monthly growth rate in 2024

66.5%：2024年月均成長率

Yet they're facing their biggest regulatory challenge yet.

然而他們正面臨迄今為止最大的監管挑戰。

Singapore and Thailand labelling the platform as "illegal gambling"

新加坡和泰國將該平台標記為“非法賭博”

CFTC subpoenaing Coinbase for Polymarket user data

CFTC 傳喚 Coinbase 取得 Polymarket 用戶數據

FBI raid on Polymarket CEO's home

FBI 突襲搜查 Polymarket 執行長的家

France and Taiwan restricting access

法國和台灣限制訪問

Meanwhile, US-based Kalshi, which sees much smaller volumes being traded on its platform when compared with Polymarket, just got a shot in the arm. Donald Trump Jr joined them earlier this week to advise the trading platform on partnerships and go-to-market strategy.

與此同時，總部位於美國的 Kalshi 剛剛得到了一劑強心劑，該公司平台上的交易量比 Polymarket 少得多。小唐納德·川普本週早些時候加入了他們的行列，為該交易平台提供合作夥伴關係和上市策略的建議。

“Don Jr.’s bold vision and deep expertise perfectly align with our mission to reshape how America engages with information,” Kalshi said in a post on X.

「小唐的大膽願景和深厚的專業知識與我們重塑美國資訊互動方式的使命完美契合，」卡爾希在 X 上發表的一篇文章中說道。

Where does this leave the future of prediction markets?

預測市場的未來將何去何從？

Beyond Elections: The Future

超越選舉：未來

Prediction markets have managed to keep their platforms active post the elections.

預測市場在選舉後設法保持其平台活躍。

The open interest on Polymarket, which peaked to north of $500 million during the elections, is down to averaging $100 million in December and January. That’s still level with the open interest the platform saw in the run up to the elections in August and September.

Polymarket 的未平倉部位在選舉期間達到 5 億美元以上的峰值，但在 12 月和 1 月則降至平均 1 億美元。這仍然與該平台在 8 月和 9 月選舉前夕看到的未平倉合約持平。

Even the daily active traders on the platform have been gradually on the rise after the post-election drop.

即使是該平台上的每日活躍交易者在大選後下降後也逐漸上升。

The average has shot up to more than 40K daily active traders in December and January from less than 30K in November post election.

大選後，12 月和 1 月的平均每日活躍交易者數從 11 月的不到 3 萬激增至超過 4 萬。

While people are fixated on prediction markets’ election success, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sees something bigger emerging out of prediction markets - “Info finance”.

當人們專注於預測市場的選舉成功時，以太坊聯合創始人 Vitalik Buterin 看到了預測市場中正在出現的更大的東西——「資訊金融」。

"Predicting the election is just the first app. The broader concept is that you can use finance as a way to align incentives in order to provide viewers with valuable information."

“預測選舉只是第一個應用程式。更廣泛的概念是，您可以使用金融作為調整激勵措施的方式，以便為觀眾提供有價值的資訊。”

Meaning? He thinks of this concept as a “three-sided” market, where bettors make predictions, readers consume these forecasts, and the system generates public predictions.

意義？他認為這個概念是一個「三面」市場，投注者做出預測，讀者消費這些預測，系統產生公共預測。

That’s not all. Read on…

這還不是全部。繼續閱讀…

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Rallying Into Thin Air? 💨

比特幣價格分析：憑空反彈？ 💨

After a stellar 2024, Bitcoin began 2025 with a dull performance. What’s causing this вялость (sluggishness in Russian), and where is BTC headed next?

在經歷了 2024 年的輝煌之後，比特幣在 2025 年開始表現平淡。是什麼導致了這種「вялость」（俄語中的低迷），比特幣下一步將走向何方？

Get Analysis

獲取分析

Three shifts could shape prediction markets moving forward.

三個轉變可能會影響預測市場的未來發展。

The Micro-Markets Revolution

微觀市場革命

"The most interesting applications of info finance are on 'micro' questions," says Buterin.

「資訊金融最有趣的應用是『微觀』問題，」Buterin 說。

Imagine millions of tiny markets, each seemingly inconsequential on its own

想像一下數以百萬計的小市場，每個市場本身看起來都是無關緊要的