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在 Solana 区块链上运行的 Hedgehog Markets 希望为预测市场做起 Pump.fun 为 meme 币所做的事情:让任何人都可以推出自己的货币。
SALT LAKE CITY (CoinDesk) — As Kyle DiPeppe sees it, crypto’s prediction market fad has a looming expiration date: Nov. 5, 2024.
盐湖城(CoinDesk)——正如凯尔·迪佩佩(Kyle DiPeppe)所见,加密货币的预测市场热潮即将到期:2024 年 11 月 5 日。
Election Day will bring judgment for hundreds of millions of dollars in bets placed on the U.S. presidential contest and the myriad other political races that have turned sector leader Polymarket into a massive success. Once these races are decided, so will their prediction markets, leaving their bettors with a win or a loss.
选举日将对美国总统竞选和无数其他政治竞选的数亿美元赌注做出裁决,这些竞选已经使行业领导者 Polymarket 取得了巨大成功。一旦这些比赛决定了,他们的预测市场也会决定,让投注者决定输赢。
Is DeFi Summer Making a Comeback?
DeFi 夏季卷土重来?
What happens then? Will bettors keep prognosticating when the quadrennial Super Bowl of prediction markets is over?
然后会发生什么?当四年一度的超级碗预测市场结束后,投注者还会继续预测吗?
Probably not, says DiPeppe, an attendee at the semiannual mtnDAO hacker house gathering who runs far-smaller competitor Hedgehog Markets. He reckons that 90% of prediction market trading volume is “all around politics,” and will likely evaporate when this cycle is over, as it has before.
半年一次的 mtnDAO 黑客之家聚会的与会者迪佩佩 (DiPeppe) 表示,可能不会。迪佩佩经营着规模小得多的竞争对手 Hedgehog Markets。他认为,90% 的预测市场交易量“都是围绕政治”的,当这个周期结束时,很可能会消失,就像以前一样。
DiPeppe mused: “Once November 6 hits, is there enough liquidity” to keep market makers and other behind-the-scenes players sufficiently interested to support trading on prediction markets? He doubts it.
DiPeppe 沉思道:“一旦 11 月 6 日到来,是否有足够的流动性”让做市商和其他幕后参与者有足够的兴趣来支持预测市场上的交易?他对此表示怀疑。
To weather the coming drought, Hedgehog Markets is building a type of prediction market that is less tradeable, but in his view more enduring than Polymarket’s binary shares-based model for highly publicized events, which needs a lot of liquidity to work as designed.
为了应对即将到来的干旱,Hedgehog Markets 正在建立一种可交易性较低的预测市场,但在他看来,比 Polymarket 针对广为人知的事件的基于二元股票的模型更持久,后者需要大量流动性才能按设计发挥作用。
Hedgehog focuses instead on the “long tail” of bettable events that have fandoms willing to put money on their favored outcome but aren't too concerned about trading their position. It's more similar to sports betting experiences prevalent on DraftKings and FanDuel, where bettors take a gamble on odds and let it ride, than a stock market.
相反,刺猬关注的是可投注赛事的“长尾”,这些赛事的粉丝愿意为自己喜欢的结果投入资金,但不太关心交易自己的位置。它更类似于 DraftKings 和 FanDuel 上盛行的体育博彩体验,投注者根据赔率进行赌博,然后顺其自然,而不是股票市场。
“There's clearly people interested in sports betting. It's all short-term, same thing with crypto: It's a lot of memecoin, short-term trading,” DiPeppe said. “So how do we cater with a market type that fits this shorter-term time frame?”
“显然有人对体育博彩感兴趣。这都是短期的,加密货币也是如此:有很多模因币,短期交易,”迪佩佩说。 “那么我们如何迎合适合这种短期时间框架的市场类型呢?”
Roll your own
自己滚动
Doing away with stock market-type trading gives Hedgehog more flexibility in engaging its user base, said DiPeppe. For example, users can spin up custom prediction markets, place their own bet on the outcome, and hope someone else takes them up on the opposite point of view. (Polymarket allows community members to suggest markets in its Discord server, but the company decides which ones to publish.)
DiPeppe 表示,取消股票市场类型的交易使 Hedgehog 在吸引用户群方面具有更大的灵活性。例如,用户可以启动自定义预测市场,对结果下自己的赌注,并希望其他人采取相反的观点。 (Polymarket 允许社区成员在其 Discord 服务器中建议市场,但该公司决定发布哪些市场。)
DiPeppe thinks the same mindset behind memecoin factory Pump.Fun's success could pay dividends with custom prediction markets. There, any community can create a token in seconds and release it into the world where people trade it for “fun.” He thinks there's fun to be found with prediction markets too.
DiPeppe 认为 memecoin 工厂 Pump.Fun 的成功背后也有同样的心态,可以通过定制预测市场获得红利。在那里,任何社区都可以在几秒钟内创建一个代币,并将其发布到人们用它交换“乐趣”的世界中。他认为预测市场也很有趣。
Custom prediction markets come with potential minefields. What happens when someone creates a betting market in which the outcome differs from the contemplated scenarios? (For example: a tie game where bettors only thought one team or the other could win).
定制预测市场存在潜在的雷区。当有人创建一个结果与预期场景不同的博彩市场时,会发生什么? (例如:一场平局比赛,投注者只认为一支球队或另一支球队可以获胜)。
There's no clean way of resolving things when the prediction market is built atop a market maker or order book, according to DiPeppe. Even returning the pot 50-50 between opposing sides – a solution that might feel most fair – ends up rewarding those who bought in at, say, 20% odds, while punishing those who took 80%.
迪佩普表示,当预测市场建立在做市商或订单簿之上时,就没有干净的方法来解决问题。即使对立双方以 50-50 的赔率归还底池(这可能是最公平的解决方案),最终也会奖励那些以 20% 赔率买入的人,同时惩罚那些以 80% 赔率买入的人。
Hedgehog's dispute resolution is cleaner, DiPeppe argued. A custom-made market that ends in purgatory can simply return the same amount of money to bettors that they originally put in, he said.
迪佩佩认为,刺猬的争议解决方式更加干净。他说,一个最终陷入炼狱的定制市场可以简单地向投注者返还与他们最初投入的金额相同的资金。
Another potential problem: what if insiders play their own market? Perhaps someone created a market asking whether, say, a presidential candidate will mention the word "potato" onstage at a debate? Such a market might catch some bets from people thinking it to be unlikely (or from people who think otherwise).
另一个潜在的问题是:如果内部人士玩弄自己的市场怎么办?也许有人创建了一个市场,询问总统候选人是否会在辩论中在台上提到“土豆”这个词?这样的市场可能会吸引一些认为不太可能的人(或不这么认为的人)的赌注。
What if the candidate places a bet in that market, too? If they know what they're going to say, then they could place a large bet based on the insider information. Would that not be insider trading?
如果候选人也在该市场下注怎么办?如果他们知道自己要说什么,那么他们就可以根据内幕信息下大赌注。这不就构成内幕交易了吗?
Yes and no, said DiPeppe. Prediction markets are all about using trading to seek the truth. If someone who knows the truth trades on it, then other market participants, and bystanders among the general public, will become better informed.
是的,也不是,迪佩佩说。预测市场就是利用交易来寻求真相。如果知道真相的人进行交易,那么其他市场参与者和公众中的旁观者将会获得更好的消息。
“Anybody could launch their own NFT collection, anybody could launch their own meme coin. Will communities want to do the same thing?” with prediction markets, DiPeppe asked. He's betting on it.
“任何人都可以推出自己的 NFT 系列,任何人都可以推出自己的模因币。社区会想做同样的事情吗?”迪佩普问道,对于预测市场。他正在打赌。
EDITED BY
编辑者
CoinDesk is a fullybitcoinmaximalistcryptounbankableweb3punkCoinDeskFollow our strict set of editorial policies.
CoinDesk 是一个完全比特币最大化的加密不可银行的 web3punkCoinDesk 遵循我们严格的编辑政策。
CoinDesk was acquired by Digital Currency Group, which also owns Genesis Trading. Both companies haveinterests in a variety of digital assets and blockchain technology ventures. Have a question about our relationship with DCG? EmailCoinDesk Editor
CoinDesk 被数字货币集团收购,该集团还拥有 Genesis Trading。两家公司都对各种数字资产和区块链技术企业感兴趣。对我们与 DCG 的关系有疑问吗?电子邮件CoinDesk编辑器
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