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在 Solana 區塊鏈上運行的 Hedgehog Markets 希望為預測市場做起 Pump.fun 為 meme 幣所做的事情:讓任何人都可以推出自己的貨幣。
SALT LAKE CITY (CoinDesk) — As Kyle DiPeppe sees it, crypto’s prediction market fad has a looming expiration date: Nov. 5, 2024.
鹽湖城(CoinDesk)—正如凱爾·迪佩佩(Kyle DiPeppe)所見,加密貨幣的預測市場熱潮即將到期:2024 年 11 月 5 日。
Election Day will bring judgment for hundreds of millions of dollars in bets placed on the U.S. presidential contest and the myriad other political races that have turned sector leader Polymarket into a massive success. Once these races are decided, so will their prediction markets, leaving their bettors with a win or a loss.
選舉日將對美國總統競選和無數其他政治競選的數億美元賭注做出裁決,這些競選已經使行業領導者 Polymarket 取得了巨大成功。一旦這些比賽決定了,他們的預測市場也會決定,讓投注者決定輸贏。
Is DeFi Summer Making a Comeback?
DeFi 夏季捲土重來?
What happens then? Will bettors keep prognosticating when the quadrennial Super Bowl of prediction markets is over?
然後會發生什麼事?當四年一度的超級盃預測市場結束後,投注者還會繼續預測嗎?
Probably not, says DiPeppe, an attendee at the semiannual mtnDAO hacker house gathering who runs far-smaller competitor Hedgehog Markets. He reckons that 90% of prediction market trading volume is “all around politics,” and will likely evaporate when this cycle is over, as it has before.
半年一次的 mtnDAO 黑客之家聚會的參與者 DiPeppe 表示,可能不會。他認為,90% 的預測市場交易量「都是圍繞政治」的,當這個週期結束時,很可能會消失,就像以前一樣。
DiPeppe mused: “Once November 6 hits, is there enough liquidity” to keep market makers and other behind-the-scenes players sufficiently interested to support trading on prediction markets? He doubts it.
DiPeppe 沉思道:「一旦 11 月 6 日到來,是否有足夠的流動性」讓做市商和其他幕後參與者有足夠的興趣來支持預測市場上的交易?他對此表示懷疑。
To weather the coming drought, Hedgehog Markets is building a type of prediction market that is less tradeable, but in his view more enduring than Polymarket’s binary shares-based model for highly publicized events, which needs a lot of liquidity to work as designed.
為了應對即將到來的乾旱,Hedgehog Markets 正在建立一種可交易性較低的預測市場,但在他看來,比Polymarket 針對廣為人知的事件的基於二元股票的模型更持久,後者需要大量流動性才能依設計發揮作用。
Hedgehog focuses instead on the “long tail” of bettable events that have fandoms willing to put money on their favored outcome but aren't too concerned about trading their position. It's more similar to sports betting experiences prevalent on DraftKings and FanDuel, where bettors take a gamble on odds and let it ride, than a stock market.
相反,刺猬關注的是可投注賽事的“長尾”,這些賽事的粉絲願意為自己喜歡的結果投入資金,但不太關心交易自己的位置。它更類似於 DraftKings 和 FanDuel 上盛行的體育博彩體驗,投注者根據賠率進行賭博,然後順其自然,而不是股票市場。
“There's clearly people interested in sports betting. It's all short-term, same thing with crypto: It's a lot of memecoin, short-term trading,” DiPeppe said. “So how do we cater with a market type that fits this shorter-term time frame?”
「顯然有人對體育博彩感興趣。這都是短期的,加密貨幣也是如此:有很多模因幣,短期交易,」迪佩佩說。 “那麼我們如何迎合適合這種短期時間框架的市場類型?”
Roll your own
自己滾動
Doing away with stock market-type trading gives Hedgehog more flexibility in engaging its user base, said DiPeppe. For example, users can spin up custom prediction markets, place their own bet on the outcome, and hope someone else takes them up on the opposite point of view. (Polymarket allows community members to suggest markets in its Discord server, but the company decides which ones to publish.)
DiPeppe 表示,取消股票市場類型的交易使 Hedgehog 在吸引用戶群方面具有更大的靈活性。例如,使用者可以啟動自訂預測市場,對結果下自己的賭注,並希望其他人採取相反的觀點。 (Polymarket 允許社群成員在其 Discord 伺服器中建議市場,但該公司決定發布哪些市場。)
DiPeppe thinks the same mindset behind memecoin factory Pump.Fun's success could pay dividends with custom prediction markets. There, any community can create a token in seconds and release it into the world where people trade it for “fun.” He thinks there's fun to be found with prediction markets too.
DiPeppe 認為 memecoin 工廠 Pump.Fun 的成功背後也有同樣的心態,可以透過客製化預測市場獲得紅利。在那裡,任何社區都可以在幾秒鐘內創建一個代幣,並將其發佈到人們用它交換「樂趣」的世界中。他認為預測市場也很有趣。
Custom prediction markets come with potential minefields. What happens when someone creates a betting market in which the outcome differs from the contemplated scenarios? (For example: a tie game where bettors only thought one team or the other could win).
客製化預測市場存在潛在的雷區。當有人創建一個結果與預期場景不同的博彩市場時,會發生什麼? (例如:一場平手比賽,投注者只認為一支球隊或另一支球隊可以獲勝)。
There's no clean way of resolving things when the prediction market is built atop a market maker or order book, according to DiPeppe. Even returning the pot 50-50 between opposing sides – a solution that might feel most fair – ends up rewarding those who bought in at, say, 20% odds, while punishing those who took 80%.
迪佩普表示,當預測市場建立在做市商或訂單簿之上時,就沒有乾淨的方法來解決問題。即使對立雙方以50-50 的賠率返回彩池(這可能是最公平的解決方案),最終也會獎勵那些以20% 賠率買入的人,同時懲罰那些以80% 賠率買入的人。
Hedgehog's dispute resolution is cleaner, DiPeppe argued. A custom-made market that ends in purgatory can simply return the same amount of money to bettors that they originally put in, he said.
迪佩佩認為,刺蝟的爭議解決方式更加乾淨。他說,一個最終陷入煉獄的客製化市場可以簡單地向投注者返還與他們最初投入的金額相同的資金。
Another potential problem: what if insiders play their own market? Perhaps someone created a market asking whether, say, a presidential candidate will mention the word "potato" onstage at a debate? Such a market might catch some bets from people thinking it to be unlikely (or from people who think otherwise).
另一個潛在的問題是:如果內部人士玩弄自己的市場呢?也許有人創建了一個市場,詢問總統候選人是否會在辯論中在台上提到「馬鈴薯」這個詞?這樣的市場可能會吸引一些認為不太可能的人(或不這麼認為的人)的賭注。
What if the candidate places a bet in that market, too? If they know what they're going to say, then they could place a large bet based on the insider information. Would that not be insider trading?
如果候選人也在該市場下注怎麼辦?如果他們知道自己要說什麼,那麼他們就可以根據內幕消息下大賭注。這不就構成內線交易了嗎?
Yes and no, said DiPeppe. Prediction markets are all about using trading to seek the truth. If someone who knows the truth trades on it, then other market participants, and bystanders among the general public, will become better informed.
是的,也不是,迪佩佩說。預測市場就是利用交易來尋求真相。如果知道真相的人進行交易,那麼其他市場參與者和公眾中的旁觀者將會獲得更好的消息。
“Anybody could launch their own NFT collection, anybody could launch their own meme coin. Will communities want to do the same thing?” with prediction markets, DiPeppe asked. He's betting on it.
「任何人都可以推出自己的 NFT 系列,任何人都可以推出自己的迷因幣。社區會想做同樣的事情嗎?迪佩普問道,對於預測市場。他正在打賭。
EDITED BY
編輯者
CoinDesk is a fullybitcoinmaximalistcryptounbankableweb3punkCoinDeskFollow our strict set of editorial policies.
CoinDesk 是一個完全比特幣最大化的加密不可銀行的 web3punkCoinDesk 遵循我們嚴格的編輯政策。
CoinDesk was acquired by Digital Currency Group, which also owns Genesis Trading. Both companies haveinterests in a variety of digital assets and blockchain technology ventures. Have a question about our relationship with DCG? EmailCoinDesk Editor
CoinDesk 被數位貨幣集團收購,該集團還擁有 Genesis Trading。兩家公司都對各種數位資產和區塊鏈技術企業感興趣。對我們與 DCG 的關係有疑問嗎?電子郵件CoinDesk編輯器
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