鲍威尔（Powell）的评论是美联储决定的市场括号

与去年的崩溃不同，这次，随着速度不变，会议后将出现真正的影响。

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on January 31, and while no rate change is expected, Powell’s comments could have a significant impact on risk assets like Bitcoin. Here's a quick look at what to expect from the Fed and how it could affect crypto.

美联储定于1月31日宣布其最新的利率决定，尽管预计不会改变利率，但鲍威尔的评论可能会对像比特币这样的风险资产产生重大影响。这是一个快速查看对美联储的期望以及如何影响加密货币的期望。

The Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady at their current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. This follows a 25 basis point cut in December, but policymakers have signaled that rate cuts will slow down in 2025. As a Result, this meeting is seen as a non-event for most markets, including cryptocurrencies, as the rate decision has already been communicated in advance. In the meanwhile, Trump has already shown his preference for lower rate cuts to support the crypto assets.

美联储可能会在目前的4.25％至4.5％的范围内保持利率稳定。这是在12月削减25个基点之后，但决策者表明，降低速度将在2025年放缓。结果，这次会议被视为包括加密货币在内的大多数市场的非事实提前传达。同时，特朗普已经表明了他偏爱降低降低税率来支持加密资产。

Even though the rate decision is predictable, there are three big issues Powell might be asked about, and his answers could shake up the markets.

即使利率决策是可以预见的，鲍威尔可能会问三个大问题，他的答案可能会动摇市场。

One major topic is deportation, President Trump has started deporting illegal immigrants, and some estimates say millions could be removed. If that happens, the U.S. could lose a big chunk of its workforce, making it harder for businesses to find workers. That could push wages higher and drive inflation up. If Powell agrees that this is a risk, it could mean fewer rate cuts ahead, which would be bad news for Bitcoin and other risky investments.

一个主要的话题是驱逐出境，特朗普总统已经开始驱逐非法移民，一些估计说数以百万计的人可以被删除。如果发生这种情况，美国可能会失去大部分劳动力，从而使企业更难找到工人。这可能会推动工资更高并推动通货膨胀提高。如果鲍威尔同意这是一种风险，那可能意味着降低税率的较少，这对比特币和其他风险投资是个坏消息。

Another issue that could come up is the U.S. debt ceiling. The U.S. has hit its $36 trillion debt limit, and the government is now using emergency measures to keep running. One of these measures involves spending money from a special account at the Fed, which could pump extra cash into the economy. This could help risk assets like Bitcoin in the short term. But Powell might downplay its impact, which could keep markets cautious.

可能出现的另一个问题是美国债务上限。美国已经达到了36万亿美元的债务限额，政府现在正在采取紧急措施继续运行。这些措施之一涉及从美联储的特殊帐户中花钱，这可能会将额外的现金带入经济中。这可以在短期内有助于像比特币这样的风险资产。但是鲍威尔可能会轻描淡写其影响，这可能使市场保持谨慎。

Lastly, Powell might address the recent moderation in rent inflation, which has a significant effect on the consumer price index. If Powell acknowledges this disinflationary trend, it could boost the crypto market, potentially driving up risk assets like Bitcoin.

最后，鲍威尔（Powell）可能会解决租金通货膨胀率最近的适度，这对消费者价格指数产生了重大影响。如果鲍威尔（Powell）承认这种解散趋势，它可能会提高加密货币市场，从而推动像比特币这样的风险资产。

Following the Fed’s meeting, Bitcoin dropped 1.15% in the last 24 hours, trading at $102,134.33, but still holds a dominant 58.30% market share with a $2.08 trillion market cap. Despite the dip, BTC Spot ETF inflows of $18.44 million on January 28 suggest continued institutional interest, though overall trading volume of $42.81 billion reflects caution ahead of the FOMC decision.

美联储的会议结束后，比特币在过去24小时内下降了1.15％，交易价格为102,134.33美元，但仍持有58.30％的市场份额，市场上限为20.8万亿美元。尽管下降了，但1月28日，BTC现货ETF流入1844万美元表明，尽管总体交易量为428.1亿美元，但在FOMC决定之前的总体交易量反映了谨慎。